Sabato's Crystal Ball in '04: Bush 278 Electoral Votes, Democrat 260...

Center For Politics ^

[Recovering_Democrat]

Beltway Boys Fred Barnes and Mort Kondracki had Larry Sabato on their show this weekend. He presented this projected Electoral Map for 2004. What do you think? Is he right? Sabato did say if the election were held today, Bush would probably get 330 Electoral votes. He thinks this is what it'll look like in November of '04, though. Any thoughts?

[ambrose]

However all the past President's that have been reelected going back to may FDR days had done so with fairly large EC margins, not close as he's projecting.

The last incumbent president to be narrowly re-elected was Woodrow Wilson in 1916:

1916 Presidential Election Results

	Presidential Candidate	Vice Presidential Candidate	Political Party		Popular Vote		Electoral Vote
	Woodrow Wilson	Thomas Marshall	Democrat		9,126,300	49.24%	277	52.2%
	Charles Hughes	Charles Fairbanks	Republican		8,546,789	46.11%	254	47.8%
	Allan Benson	George Kirkpatrick	Socialist		589,924	3.18%	0	0%
	James Hanly	Ira Landrith	Prohibition		221,038	1.19%	0	0%
	Other	-	-		50,979	0.28%	0	0%
		<50%
		>50%
		>60%
		>70%	-
		>80%	-
		>90%	-

Maps
Data
Election Notes: In West Virginia, the direct election of the eight presidential electors combined with the closeness of the race resulted in a split between the Republican and Democratic electors: seven for Hughes and one for Wilson. The elector whom received the most votes was an elector for Hughes. Electoral Vote Map Note: there is no implied geographical significance as to the location of the shaded areas for West Virginia's split electoral votes.

© David Leip 1999 All Rights Reserved

[Dan from Michigan]

LOL. The only way I'll ever see Wayne County, MI turn red. Evem Geoff Fieger won there.

[codercpc]

I too think Bush will take Wisconsin. In 2000 he lost by less than 5,000 votes.

In 2002 we did elect a Democratic Gov, but only because our candidate was extremely weak, and an Independent Ed Thompson (Tommys brother) got over 10% of the vote. We also voted in a complete Republican Congress. The Republican majority has also passed a law requiring, for the first time, picture IDs for voting. In 2002 there was a lot of voter fraud. Ciggerettes for votes, college students admitting to multiple voting, etc. Hopefully this law will curtail some of that, although the Dem Gov DiamondJim Doyle is threatening to veto.

Wisconsin, like many states are in a fiscal mess. Govenor Doyle only won by promising not to raise taxes (something the Repub candidate refused to do), so the Republican majority plans to keep him to his promise by passing a "property tax-freeze", the Govenor is now threatening to veto that too. So much for his promise.

I think Wisconsin is ripe for a change.

[ambrose]

The one viable scenario wherein I can envision a NARROW Bush re-election:

Things get worse economically, perhaps another terror incident which is viewed as having been preventable, etc., etc....

BUT, the Rats nominate someone like a Dean or Kerry who simply will not and cannot win in the "red" states. Under such a scenario, it could literally be a replay of 2000.


If things go very well economically and terror wise, and the Rats nominate Dean or Kerry... good night, Irene. Could be a 49 state romp...

[ALS]

I'm employing arteest's license

[Dan from Michigan]

Ciggerettes for votes,

I remember. Detroit did it too.

[CyberAnt]

Well ... let them play their little games - what they're trying to do is convince the dems they can beat Bush - they can't.

[genghis]

1- popular, likeable incumbant
2-booming economy
3-military victor
4-opposition in disarray
5-huge money advantage
6-recent scotus decisions will only enrage our base
7-no issues for the other side

[AntiGuv]

Why don't no one ever give me a damn thing for my vote??

[The Wizard]

no offense larry, I like you but the truth is in you 330 number, it will be that or higher

[Kuksool]

{Ciggerettes for votes, college students admitting to multiple voting, etc}

In Illinois, the RATS were registering sex offenders to vote Democratic.

[Tall_Texan]

Isn't this map EXACTLY the outcome of the 2000 election? I can't think of a state here that didn't go exactly that way in 2000. Some crystal ball. What a fraud!

[Susannah]

EC, County map BUMP

[lepton]

Basically, the maps have Dem Candidates that are from states that are probable Bush states, having their home states as "leaning" to Dems...except for Kerry, for whom he shifts New Hampshire, and for Lieberman, for whom he shifts Florida. I don't see any other changes in his maps.

[lepton]

Basically, the maps have Dem Candidates that are from states that are probable Bush states, having their home states as "leaning" to Dems...except for Kerry, for whom he shifts New Hampshire, and for Lieberman, for whom he shifts Florida. I don't see any other changes in his maps.

[GraniteStateConservative]

Zogby said the DUI report cost Bush 1 million votes (1% of the vote). Are you sure he said 1 million for the early call?

[InvisibleChurch]

it will never be that close... w will have half a billion dollars to spend and he's going to crush the democrats

[lepton]

the last 2 Pub Presidents have been governors.

GWHB was a governor?

[GraniteStateConservative]

You don't think relative peace and 4.0% GDP could make NY competitive?

[Pubbie]

"In Illinois, the RATS were registering sex offenders to vote Democratic."

How desperate do the Rats have to be to have to cheat in ILLINOIS for God's sake!