[Dan from Michigan]

Wisconsin

You think Wisconsin too? I don't know. Reason being the 1-2-3 punch of Dane, Milwaukee, and The whole Iron Range area on Lake Superior(From Ironwood MI to Duluth MN).

Oregon I think depends on a strong Green. I think Washington is almost out of reach with the tech job losses.

Iowa, New Hampshire, and Minnesota are three of the toughest for me to predict. Anything can happen there.

[codercpc]

I too think Bush will take Wisconsin. In 2000 he lost by less than 5,000 votes.

In 2002 we did elect a Democratic Gov, but only because our candidate was extremely weak, and an Independent Ed Thompson (Tommys brother) got over 10% of the vote. We also voted in a complete Republican Congress. The Republican majority has also passed a law requiring, for the first time, picture IDs for voting. In 2002 there was a lot of voter fraud. Ciggerettes for votes, college students admitting to multiple voting, etc. Hopefully this law will curtail some of that, although the Dem Gov DiamondJim Doyle is threatening to veto.

Wisconsin, like many states are in a fiscal mess. Govenor Doyle only won by promising not to raise taxes (something the Repub candidate refused to do), so the Republican majority plans to keep him to his promise by passing a "property tax-freeze", the Govenor is now threatening to veto that too. So much for his promise.

I think Wisconsin is ripe for a change.

[genghis]

1- popular, likeable incumbant
2-booming economy
3-military victor
4-opposition in disarray
5-huge money advantage
6-recent scotus decisions will only enrage our base
7-no issues for the other side

[Deport Billary]

I expect Bush to do about 8 points better in the northeast, 4 points impovement in the midwest and maybe a +1 or +2 everywhere else.