I move Michigan and Minnesota from probable dem to tossup(dem). I consider both of them true tossups, but that wasn't what Sabato used.
Other than that I agree on that one.
Lieberman is the toughest for me to predict. He has a conservative reputation, and liberals hate him like some of us hate John McStain. I think he'll be offed in the primary. He has Lieberman winning with 287. I don't know what would happen with him. I expect a strong green candidate with Lieberman taking some of the vote.
Graham 287 as well. I think he'll be tough if he gets off the ground.
Gephart is abrasive which helps. Geography he hurts. He puts Missouri in play, and locks up West VA and Michigan. But will Gephart play well in white collar suburbia? Soccer moms? I don't think he can. He'll be tough though.
I don't think Edwards can pull it off. He's scary, but beatable. He IS a trial lawyer, which puts Michigan in play(Ask Fieger). I can't see him taking NC as well like Sabato has. Why? He's not been there long enough. He'll lose, but a close one.
Kerry I think simply doesn't have it. I agree with Sabato on that Kerry loses to W, but it wouldn't be AS close as this. I can't see Kerry selling in middle America.