Tropical Storm Bill in Gulf (Target: Houston, 36 hours)

Houston Chronicle ^ | 06.29.2003

[SolidSupplySide]

The second tropical storm of the Atlantic hurricane season formed today in the Gulf of Mexico, and a tropical storm watch has been issued until 1 p.m. for parts of the Texas and Louisiana coasts.

Tropical Storm Bill had sustained winds of 40 mph and was about 460 miles south-southeast of Port Arthur this morning, according to the National Hurricane Center.

Residents of Harris, Galveston, Chambers and Liberty counties are in the watch area, from San Luis Pass to Morgan City, La. A watch means tropical storm conditions are possible, generally within 36 hours.

The storm, moving northwest at about 14 mph, was expected to strengthen during the day and eventually turn north-northwest, forecasters said.

Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are expected along the coastal sections this afternoon. Rainfall from Bill can be expected to begin affecting the Upper Texas coast during the day Monday. The amount of rain received from Bill will depend upon the location of the center of circulation upon landfall.

At 10 a.m., Bill was located near latitude 23.5 north and longitude 91.5 west, moving northwest near 14 mph. Bill was a minimum tropical storm with some strengthening expected during the next 24 to 36 hours.

Tides are running around 1/2 foot above normal. Little change is expected during the next 24 hours.

The season's first tropical storm, Ana, formed in April and was only a threat to shipping. Systems become tropical storms when their winds exceed 39 mph.

The Atlantic hurricane season started June 1 and runs through Nov. 30.

[SolidSupplySide]

[anymouse]

Looks like we have a storm brewing in the Gulf heading this way.

[DoughtyOne]

Even worse, I hear there's a tropical low name Kenneth who's going to clear the path for it. Look out...

[SolidSupplySide]

Even worse, I hear there's a tropical low name Kenneth who's going to clear the path for it. Look out...

I don't get it.

We've had plenty of rain in my neck of the coastal plain lately. There's still a lot of standing water around. Even a minimal tropical storm is liable to cause flooding.

[eastforker]

Bill/Allison bump.Allison and Alicia were minimal storms also.Both turned into devastating disasters.I better get my generator fueled up.After alicia we were without power for ten days.

[DoughtyOne]

Tropical Storm Bill (Clinton) had sustained winds of 40 mph and was about 460 miles south-southeast of Port Arthur this morning, according to the National Hurricane Center.

Even worse, I hear there's a tropical low name Kenneth (Starr) who's going to clear the path for it. Look out...

I couldn't pass up the opportunity to make a play on names.

[NautiNurse]

This one came up suddenly. Is this from the tropical wave in the Caribbean or another source? Either way, a June TS in the Gulf is relatively rare, judging by the historical map.

[ExSoldier]

I am NOT liking this at all. They predicted a busy hurricane season and it's shaping up to be a doozy! Rarely do these storms get started this early. In my life, I have been through six hurricanes, including the BIG ONE, Andrew. I live in Miami, FL and we haven't had a major storm since Andrew. As Han Solo is fond of saying: "I've got a bad feeling about this..."

[SolidSupplySide]

All I can tell you is that if TS Bill causes widespread flooding, no Houstonian will think of Clinton if someone talks about the damage done by Bill.

You obviously don't live in danger of tropical systems. Anyone who does thinks of storms if the name Allison, Alicia, Andrew, Hugo, etc. are mentioned.

[Brian S]

Frontpage bump!

[SolidSupplySide]

Either way, a June TS in the Gulf is relatively rare, judging by the historical map.

For some reason, Allison didn't make your map. (Perhaps Allison was never within 300 miles of Bill's current position. Your map doesn't include all June storms.) Allison hit the first week of June, and she was a doozy!

[DoughtyOne]

Hey lighten up. I've experienced five or six 6.0 plus earthquakes and it doesn't bother me a bit when then slippin' and sliden' jokes come up. Neither of us wants to see Hustonians or anyone else experience any damage. I thought that would go without saying.

[Eric in the Ozarks]

Look for crude and nat gas markets to jump Monday.

[eastforker]

Yup,and it was blowed off as minimal before it hit.Of course there is no possible way to predict exactly what a storm will do untill the last minute so to speak.Beware Houston!! We may or may not be in for a rough night on monday.

[NautiNurse]

"I've got a bad feeling about this..."

I had an eerie feeling when Ana appeared in April. Looks like it will be a looong hurricane season this year.

[Brian S]

Some of the weakest storms can be the most costly when they pull up just off the coast and park for a couple of days.

[txhurl]

coastal plain BUMP

[SolidSupplySide]

Freeport/Galveston have highest strike possibilities.

000
WTNT73 KNHC 291436
SPFAT3
TROPICAL STORM BILL PROBABILITIES NUMBER   1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2003
 
PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS
 
AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF BILL WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 23.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE  91.5 WEST
 
CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH  7AM CDT WED JUL  2 2003
 
LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E   LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E
 
26.8N  93.8W      40  X  X  X 40   GALVESTON TX       2 22  1  1 26
28.7N  94.2W       9 18  1  X 28   FREEPORT TX        3 21  1  1 26
30.2N  94.2W       X 17  4  2 23   PORT O CONNOR TX   3 17  1  1 22
APALACHICOLA FL    X  X  X  2  2   CORPUSCHRISTI TX   2  9  1  2 14
PANAMA CITY FL     X  X  X  2  2   BROWNSVILLE TX     3  2  X  2  7
PENSACOLA FL       X  X  X  5  5   GULF 29N 87W       X  X  X  4  4
MOBILE AL          X  X  1  6  7   GULF 28N 89W       X  1  3  4  8
GULFPORT MS        X  X  3  6  9   GULF 28N 91W       4  9  2  2 17
BURAS LA           X  1  5  5 11   GULF 28N 93W      20  8  X  1 29
NEW ORLEANS LA     X  2  6  5 13   GULF 28N 95W      17 12  X  1 30
NEW IBERIA LA      X  9  6  3 18   GULF 27N 96W      17  5  1  X 23
PORT ARTHUR TX     X 18  4  1 23   GULF 25N 96W      10  1  1  X 12
 
COLUMN DEFINITION   PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  7AM MON
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM  7AM MON TO  7PM MON
C FROM  7PM MON TO  7AM TUE
D FROM  7AM TUE TO  7AM WED
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  7AM WED
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT
 
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
 
 

[Action-America]

For some reason, Allison didn't make your map. (Perhaps Allison was never within 300 miles of Bill's current position...

Correct.  Allison was never within 300 miles of Bill's current position, since Allison developed in the ship channel (well almost, anyway).

 

[varina davis]

1 p.m. NHC Advisory now has the center of TS Bill a little more to the east. There is some thinking that westerly winds will shove the storm farther to the NE by landfall. But in the long run, GOM storms can be tricky to forecast. All interests along the GOM should make emergency preparations for this and future tropical weather.