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What is the anticipated turnout for 9 Jul, and how widespread are the protests expected to be?

RFE/RL Iran Report Vol. 6, No. 28, 7 July 2003 do not expect more than last years:

COMMEMORATION OF 1999 UNREST COMES AT SENSITIVE TIME. The fourth anniversary of the day in July 1999 ("18 Tir" or 9 July) when Iranian security forces and vigilantes stormed the Tehran University campus will be marked this week. The authorities have rejected student groups' applications to hold a commemorative march, and they have closed the university campus to outside visitors. These measures indicate the authorities' concern over residual anger from the unrest of just a few weeks earlier and their awareness of the students' restiveness. Nevertheless, one should avoid the temptation to overstate the situation and its potential significance.

The unrest of June 2003 did not reach the level of that which occurred in July 1999. And the events of July 1999, November 2002, or June 2003 are not comparable in scale to those of June 1963 or September 1978, when millions of people filled the streets of Tehran and other cities.

The students' current activism attracts a lot of media attention, but there are only 1.2 million university students in Iran, out of a total population of some 66.6 million (CIA World Factbook estimate as of July 2002; according to the UN Population Division, the population in 2000 was 66.43 million; http://esa.un.org/unpp/p2k0data.asp). Nor are all students opposed to the regime. Some have withdrawn from political activism, some were not politically active to begin with, and others are members of the University Basij and are, in fact, supporters of the regime.

Those students who are politically active are not very united. The best-known student organization, the Office for Strengthening Unity, underwent a split in early-2002 because of a dispute regarding support for President Mohammad Khatami and the reformists. The majority wing, known as the "Neshast-i Allameh," wanted to withdraw from mainstream politics, whereas the minority wing, known as the "Neshast-i Shiraz," preferred to continue its support for the president (for more on this split, see "RFE/RL Iran Report," 14 October 2002).

Ahmad Alamshahi, who heads the minority wing's public relations office, said his group would not hold a gathering on 9 July, the Baztab website reported on 29 June. Reza Ameri-Nasab of the majority Allameh wing said that his group is determined to hold rallies on 9 July, the Baztab website reported on 24 June. Ameri-Nasab clarified this statement on 5 July, when he said that all 30 members of the Allameh wing's central council would stage a sit-in at the UN office in Tehran, Fars News Agency reported.

In another sign of disunity within the student movement, Allameh faction activist Said Razavi-Faqih wrote about the "new" Office for Fostering Democracy in a 1 July editorial in the "Yas-i No" daily from Tehran. He pointed out that when the Office for Strengthening Unity was created, its full name was the Office for Strengthening the Unity of the Seminary and University (Daftar-i Tahkim-i Vahdat-i Hozeh va Daneshgah). The situation is no longer about the pursuit of unity, Razavi-Faqih wrote, it is about democracy and governmental accountability. He wrote that the old organization is too centralized, too exclusive, and too dependent on the existing power structure, whereas the new one would be for all students and would have an "extranational and global approach." Yet Razavi-Faqih said that the Office for Fostering Democracy would continue to support the Office for Strengthening Unity.

Razavi-Faqih said in an interview that appeared in the 4 July issue of Milan's "Il Giornale" that there has been no response to his organization's request to commemorate the events of 9 July. Asked what they would do, he responded, "For the moment, we are waiting. I can only say that we are prepared to use all our energies."

Another student organization is Heshmatollah Tabarzadi's Democratic Front. A veteran activist, the 43-year-old Tabarzadi has been imprisoned many times. He announced that were would be massive crowds on the streets on 9 July, Germany's "Der Spiegel" reported on 23 June. Although the actual membership in his organization appears to be small, Tabarzadi's calls-to-arms are relayed throughout Iran by Los Angeles-based Persian-language satellite television stations.

The students' leaders are disunited in their attitude towards outside assistance, furthermore. Tabarzadi told "Der Spiegel," "we have not received any help from the United States, and we do not want it in future either." Tabarzadi added, "we regard the Americans, and also the U.S. government, as friends." "And support and recognition from friends is a source of pleasure," he said in what appears to be a hopeful manner.

Razavi-Faqih seemed even less open to outside help. Asked about President George W. Bush's supportive words and the possibility of help from the U.S., Razavi-Faqih told "Il Giornale," "I am interested in receiving support only from my people. Bush does not give a damn about us. His only interest is in expanding the power of the United States. This is why we do not accept and are not interested in the U.S.'s support." When the interviewer reminded Razavi-Faqih about the difficulty of acting without support, the activist said, "we cannot accept any foreign aid because we shall be accused of being the U.S.'s fifth column. And furthermore, in my opinion, the U.S. is seeking a pretext for intervening forcefully, as it did in Iraq."

The absence of cohesiveness among the students is just one factor limiting the scope of the unrest. Another is the regime's formal and informal repressive apparatus. Some 4,000 people were arrested in June and about half that number remained in jail as of 27 June. The possibility exists that some will be executed, and it is only a matter of time before the televised confessions that are a hallmark of Iranian justice begin.

The vigilantes from the Ansar-i Hizbullah, who act with impunity, can be let loose at any time to support the security forces. Indeed, the head of the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps's public relations office, Masud Jazayeri, said on 30 June, "Spontaneous gatherings of people are being organized to counter provocations staged by rioters," the Iranian Labor News Agency (ILNA) reported. And if the vigilantes go too far the regime can deny having a formal relationship with them.

The government also employs something akin to the "bread and circuses" of ancient Rome to control dissent. Commodities such as cooking oil, meat, rice, and bread are available at subsidized prices, and gasoline prices are among the cheapest in the world. The country's unemployment rate is estimated to be over 20 percent, and hiring quotas for veterans' families and a privileged few serve to exacerbate the situation. Competitions serve as a distraction, with prizes for top students, awards for the best wives of disabled veterans, and Koran recital competitions, to name a few. Iran's national passion for soccer is no secret, but more esoteric sports, such as archery and karate, are regularly shown on television and reported on by newspapers.

Unrest and disturbances are very likely in Iran on 9 July. Nevertheless, the factors discussed here suggest that these events will not be as revolutionary as some would like and others would fear. What is of greater significance is that 44.3 million Iranians -- roughly two-thirds of the population -- are under the age of 30. This group did not participate in such formative experiences as life under the pro-U.S. monarchy, the activism of the 1978-1979 revolution, or the battles of the 1980-1988 Iran-Iraq War. As this segment of the population comes of age, it is likely to bring about significant and lasting -- but probably not revolutionary -- changes in the political system. (Bill Samii)