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Well, you're right about one thing. We'll see what happens. However, I believe you're looking at the worst case scenario. The federal government hasn't been at 23% of GDP since 1983. I don't believe it will go that high, but with the possibility of the war on terrorism expanding and the requirement to increase defense spending over and above current projections, its not out of the question.

It's true that I have a fairly pessimistic outlook - though I wouldn't go so far as doom'n'gloom. I don't see meaningful evidence of robust economic growth on the horizon (keep in mind 1999 was 'only' 3.6%), and I think Kim Jong Il is hellbent on a showdown (time is on his side), and I think this new Medicare benefit will be at least twice as expensive as projected (when those seniors figure out just how many more prescriptions they can then afford). However, I'll compromise and say 21% from now on, since I've been called on the 22-23% estimate in three different threads now. I think it'll prove accurate, but I'm all for compromise! ;^)