Bettors Say Davis Won't Survive California Recall

Bloomberg no url | 7/31/3

[NativeNewYorker]

July 31 (Bloomberg) -- California Governor Gray Davis won't

survive an Oct. 7 recall vote, according to futures contracts on

TradeSports Exchange Ltd., a Dublin-based exchange that offers

bets on events ranging from the baseball World Series to the

capture of Osama bin Laden.

     A December futures contract on whether Davis stays in office

last sold for $4 -- $6 below the $10 it would pay if Davis is

still governor on Dec. 31. The December contract price indicates

there is a 60 percent chance Davis will be out after the vote,

said John Delaney, TradeSports chief executive.

     ''Most people lose money on futures,'' said Bob Mulholland,

a campaign adviser for the California Democratic Party. ''We're

going to win this election.''

     Davis, a Democrat whose popularity ebbed as lawmakers faced

a $38 billion budget deficit, will be the first governor in

California history to face a special election on whether he

should be removed from office. According to two opinion polls

earlier this month, Davis may be the first governor removed in a

recall vote since North Dakota Governor Lynn Frazier in 1921.

     Actor Arnold Schwarzenegger and former Los Angeles Mayor

Richard Riordan, both Republicans, are expected to soon say

whether they will join a growing list of candidates planning to

appear on the ballot as possible successors to Davis. By Tuesday,

57 people had taken paperwork from local elections boards needed

to qualify for the ballot, according to the Secretary of State's

office. Candidates have until Aug. 9 to qualify.

     Betting activity on the Davis recall contract is likely to

rise as the recall approaches, Delaney said.

                      Down by Half

     Bettors buy Davis futures as they fluctuate in value from

zero to $10. The contracts pay the full amount if Davis is still

in office on Dec. 31. There were 37 Gray Davis December futures

traded today and the price dropped to $4, down 50 cents from

yesterday and half the $8 peak from earlier this month before the

recall was certified.

     Another contract, which expires Sept. 31 and trades at

$9.10, indicates that there is only a 9 percent chance that the

governor will quit prior to the recall.

     Davis is fighting back against the effort to throw him out

of office less than one year after voters elected him to a second

term. The governor's opponents, including Congressman Darrell

Issa who financed much of the recall and is running to replace

him, say Davis should be fired for misleading voters about the

size of the state's financial problems.

     ''Predicting political campaigns is like predicting the

weather. But when it's pouring outside you can safely forecast

rain,'' said Jonathan Wilcox, a spokesman for Issa's campaign for

governor.

[fooman]

We could use these market to get intel on the bad guys, BUT NOOOOO!!!!!!!

We would rather have the dirty bomb.

[goldstategop]

I'd say the bettors win the bet. This is a real world vote since people put money on the outcome. Its a more reliable predictor of how people ultimately vote than the polls. Does any one know what Iowa Futures Market says about the October 7, 2003 California Recall Election?

[VU4G10]

Gov. Gumby!

 

He was once a little green slab of clay. Gumby!

You should see what Gumby can do today. Gumby!

He can raise taxes and give illegals driver's licences, too.

If you're a wacky liberal then Gumby's a part of you.

[Steely Glint]

Don't insult Gumby.

[1Old Pro]

I hear he has better odds of getting hit by lightening than winning the recall.

[ClearCase_guy]

''Most people lose money on futures,'' said Bob Mulholland, a campaign adviser for the California Democratic Party.

He went on to say, "Some folks say that you can turn $1000 into $100,000 by betting on futures, but that's crazy talk! That's the sort of wacky alibi a corrupt politician would come up with!"

[goldstategop]

I'd like to see Bob Muholland put in a bet for his boss. But he won't make one since he's all talk and no action.