[thoughtomator]

We also need to consider whether NK actually has the resources to use much of its armed forces. Are all those artillery gunners trained? Where is NK going to get the oil to run 3000 tanks? How many of those million men in the army are well fed enough to properly aim and shoot a rifle? All we really know of North Korea is that it is falling apart and desperate for resources... nations without resources can't fight wars.

IMO if there is a Korean War II, the most NK will be able to do without Chinese help is give SK a bloody nose, briefly, before NK ceases to exist and the entire peninsula is reunited under the SK government (and perhaps given the worst humanitarian situation in human history to clean up).

[lepton]

I would expect the North Korean soldiers to be able to load their weapons, trot them out of the shelters, and fire them off - which should make a mess out of northern Seoul. After that, it gets dicey. Fixed bunkers should work fine, but maneuver would likely have a rough time for larger units.

The problem isn't the long part of the war. The problem is the first ten to fifteen minutes after the attack order is given. The North Koreans don't have to GO anywhere to strike targets. And after they have done so, if it is not they who have struck first without provocation (rhetorical or real) what will be the politics in South Korea and the U.S.?

[RANGERAIRBORNE]

Multiple tours in Korea, including with Special Forces (advising and training South Korean forces, and pursuing NK infiltrators).

Do not underestimate the enemy- the NK Army is well-trained and well-fed. While they do not have the logistical support necessary for a long war, we are not TALKING about a "long war". The problems for us arise in the first few hours of the next war (that is, civilian and military casualties that will horrify the world- and could cause "regime change" in South Korea, as well as here at home).

There is not the slightest doubt who would "win" this war (even if the Chinese came in). The question is whether we are willing to take these casualties.

I'm pretty sure that we are not.