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The Real Intelligence Failure: What if it turns out Saddam didn't have weapons of mass destruction?
Opinion Journal ^ | 08/05/03 | FRANCIS FUKUYAMA

Posted on 08/04/2003 9:16:27 PM PDT by Pokey78

Edited on 04/23/2004 12:05:46 AM PDT by Jim Robinson. [history]

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To: ladyinred
anyone who thinks he didn't have WMDs is nuts. we gave them to him!
41 posted on 08/04/2003 11:35:30 PM PDT by MatthewViti
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To: truth_seeker
He should have had the guts to do what should have been done anyway.
42 posted on 08/04/2003 11:35:52 PM PDT by RLK
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To: Pokey78
What if Saddam never had WMD? Those people in Kurdish villages obviously weren't choking on chemical weapons...oh that was probably just their imagination. Saddam having WMD, ha? You think he would have used them, like on his own people if he had them?! Oh he did, shoot.
---
Responsible dialogue on WMD centers around the fact that Saddam had WMD, used it in the past on his people, and the question is: where are they now? If Saddam rid himself voluntarily of WMD (which I doubt), there was no reason for him to kick UN weapons inspectors out. The likely explanation is that Saddam either destroyed WMD in advance of our attack (as we warned him ahead of time of the consequences of using them) or they were moved to Syria. It's useful to explore those likely possibilities but to throw your hands up in the air and scream "Where were the WMD's" as if to discount the intelligence collected for a decade and the fact Saddam has used such weapons, and to presume they never existed, is not a good point of departure for a discussion.
43 posted on 08/04/2003 11:36:53 PM PDT by jagrmeister
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To: RLK
We are not being lied to, W keeps saying he is confident the war will be justified. Meaning, be patient ass we are dotting our i's and crossing our t's so as not to have another Niger incident and timing on the release is everything being as we are coming up on an election year. Let the RATS keep sticking their foots in their mouths and at the right time blow them out the water like the Bismark.
44 posted on 08/04/2003 11:40:25 PM PDT by John Lenin
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To: Lancey Howard
"If the Bush people are as smart as I think they are, massive and indisputable amounts of WMDs will not be "discovered" so soon that it will be old news come election time. Patience. The discovery of real and very frightening WMDs will be revealed in due course."

There are articles circulating, that an Independent Swedish team HAS found WMD. Rolf Ekeus is involved, and was a former UN inspector. Certain news organs have the "exclusive" for this.

I am stating this, to strengthen your prediction that the caches WILL be found.

Ekeus was the US choice, over Hans Blix. Maybe this is the handle the "Bush people" need to orchestrate the timing release, to their political advantage.

Politically right now, it is to Bush's advantage that the dems roll on confidently to chose Howard Dean, to lead their crusade. Why help them, when they seem incapable of helping themselves?

Just guessing, politically speaking.

In terms of the next major offensive in the WOT, it may not come until after Nov, 2004.
45 posted on 08/04/2003 11:46:24 PM PDT by truth_seeker
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To: nathanbedford; RLK
I agree, as I do with most of what you post but I also agree with most of what RLK says here (except the bracketed portions)...

I like Bush for his handling of the war, but I am also queasy about his handling of domestic issues. Numbers #1 and #2 are immigration and education. The fact that, rather than eliminate the federal education ministry, he let Kennedy write his education bill has disturbed me. I am disturbed at his early intention to open the borders and his failure to effectively seal the border. Every time another trailer load of Mexicans die making the trip, I am reminded that the border is still unsealed.

So, this is not the second coming. But I am in agreement with the need to confront our enemies, and bring them down one by one. On a number of issues he has behaved as I would have hoped, which after the nightmare of the nineties, and the near-miss with Gore, is as good as it gets, I guess.

46 posted on 08/05/2003 12:01:30 AM PDT by marron
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To: RLK
"He should have had the guts to do what should have been done anyway."

So you would concur that it is better late than never.
That is if you subscribe to intellectual honesty.
47 posted on 08/05/2003 12:10:51 AM PDT by truth_seeker
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To: Lancey Howard
You and others have been using this "in due time" line for quite a while now, Lancey.

Let me pose this for your consideration.

Suppose the Bush administration really is sitting on all the information that's been gathered by our forces on the ground, as well as testimony by defectors, by who knows how many prisoners detained at Guantanamo, and other clandestine sources which were tapped in the search for WMDs.

Now, I'll change the scenario only slightly from that usually presented. Instead of holding back public release of photos and specimens taken from mobile weapons labs and undergound nuclear facilities to maximize domestic political impact (which, incidentally, would likely launch an investigation larger than Watergate and the OKC bombing combined were the Bush folks to attempt such a thing), the administration plain doesn't have anything more tangible than a rusty old certrifuge buried in someone's back yard and a couple of outdated documents on how to concoct a cocktail of bio-chem agents to shoot at an enemy.

So what does the administration do to save face, since the world is getting a bit restless during the postwar/nation-building era in Iraq?

Simple.

It lets the word out, through the hired guns at various think-tanks and PR firms, as well as through hangers-on in talk radio and internet forums and blogs -- which would include certain posters on Free Republic, no doubt -- that the Dims are painting themselves into a corner, that when criticism about lack of evidence of WMDs reaches a crescendo, the trap will spring shut and all the malcontents will have egg on their collective faces.

Except the trap never springs shut, because the WMDs have been long destroyed. But the desired political result is still achieved, as the dim-witted Democrats have gone overboard in charging that the Bush people were laying a trap for them by witholding the information that WMDs were not discovered, allowing such partisans as Howard Dean just enough rope to strangle themselves by.

Now, we all know that Saddam Hussein's most trusted advisors would lie to his face in order to save their hides.

Is it inconceivable that certain well-placed functionaries in any American administration -- perhaps people like Francis Fukiyama, even -- might spread a little disinformation in furtherance of the war effort?

Think about it.

48 posted on 08/05/2003 12:28:12 AM PDT by logician2u
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To: logician2u
as the dim-witted Democrats have gone overboard in charging that the Bush people were laying a trap for them by witholding the information that WMDs were not discovered

I'm thinking about this and it is not logical (sorry).
As long as the search for WMDs continues, it is impossible to conclude anything. That is, Bush could say that no WMDs have been discovered yet, but he cannot say that there are no WMDs.

It is also possible that WMDs have already been discovered, but it will, of course, take time to make sure that they are indeed WMDs and if they are, what was the exact nature of these WMDs, who engineered them and funded their development, and how were they to be deployed, etc., etc., etc.

This kind of investigation takes time, you see. A thorough and complete analysis is the only proper way to handle things like this. There will be lots of questions from the international press corps and "we don't know yet" is not an acceptable answer.

You wouldn't want Bush to rush out to the public with incomplete information, would you?

Think about it.

49 posted on 08/05/2003 1:04:34 AM PDT by Lancey Howard
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To: marron
Please take a look at this thread and and my comment (he said in all modesty:)

AT What Price Posted by nathanbedford to Burkeman1 On News/Activism 08/05/2003 3:25 AM EDT #29 of 53 Bush has also signed into law a campaign finance reform bill that most conservatives view as blatantly unconstitutional, endorsed an education bill written by Ted Kennedy and initiated more trade protectionism by any president since Nixon. But against these, Bush continually plays his trump card: the war against terrorism. And just as Nixon played the anticommunist card in terms of the Vietnam War, it has been enough to keep most Republican voters under control -- so far.

This paragraph contains, I believe, the graveman of the piece.

I would also note that Bartlett, who is generally sound, accepts that Bush is an honolrable man, as I do. This implies that when Bush throws $15B down the rat hole in Africa for example, he does it out of compassion, not calculation. Rove might be pleased but he is not the Rasputin, merely the beneficiary.

So Bush is a true believer and what you see is what you get. A far better buy than we got with either Clinton or Nixon. In short, I do not believe Bush is a triangulator in thrall to Rove or any other Dick Morris-like Svengali. But that is of small comfort compared to the historic mischief done by the creation of another entitlement program.

I believe this because I consider Bush to be the genuine product of an epiphany, a true believer. He is not guided by a political philosophy, at least not primarily so, but by a religious experience.

Next in order of influence on him is a sense of honor. This comes from the family. No one can read the letters of George Sr. publilshed in his book without coming away with the conviction that at core this is a family which puts great store in this old fashioned precept. They practice it, they expect others to rely on it and they expect it in return. This is why loyalty is such a high value in both administrations and why it played no part in Clinton's.

Only after these considerations, is our President affected by political considerations or, better put, does he act out of inherent political philosophy.

This utterly alien and unfathamable to all liberals and even a little suprising to many in this forum, especially libertarians, among whom you might count yourself one. This does not make George Bush more palatable necessarilly to paleo-cons, neo-cons or libertarians, but perhaps more understandable.

50 posted on 08/05/2003 1:30:18 AM PDT by nathanbedford
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To: nathanbedford
A most interesting analysis. Bump for later comment.
51 posted on 08/05/2003 1:31:48 AM PDT by BlackVeil
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To: nathanbedford
Here another piece along the same lines, this time I will post the address:

A related factor, I would judge, is the president's moral confidence. Where with Bill Clinton, all or much was shading and nuance, with George W. Bush, there is brightness and darkness, and rarely, save at sunup or sundown, do the twain ever meet. The Bush worldview is based in no small measure on religion: GWB is a staunch believer. The ever-growing number of secularists who populate the United States don't like lectures delivered ostensibly in the name of a deity who hasn't put in any personal appearances lately. http://freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/958323/posts

52 posted on 08/05/2003 1:37:04 AM PDT by nathanbedford
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To: vbmoneyspender
WMD's were Blair's main concern from the get go. His speech to Parliament the day after 9/11 was his clarion call in this respect.
53 posted on 08/05/2003 1:45:11 AM PDT by zarf (Dan Rather is god.)
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To: Pokey78
Fukuyama does not write many op-eds, but when he speaks I listen.

He's one of the leading lights of the neo-conservatives. Finding an article written by him is like the vault opening to reveal another time-capsule message from Hari Seldon.

It seems there is a spot of trouble now over the reliability of intelligence reports, but it's not a major problem, certainly nothing approaching the scale of a Seldon crisis.

Be careful, Fukuyama is telling us, take corrective action where necessary, and carry on otherwise.

54 posted on 08/05/2003 2:00:14 AM PDT by tictoc
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To: Pokey78
I guess if Saddam did not have any WMD we should broadcast a message all over Iraq asking for Saddam to come out of hiding so we can say "We are sorry, dude."
55 posted on 08/05/2003 2:02:59 AM PDT by Jeff Gordon
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To: cyborg
I think we took too long personally

It's entirely possible that a lot of his most dangerous weapons are gone because they were destroyed during the time GWB was talking about invading Iraq. I always thought that was what was happening, that GWB kept saying "destroy that weapon" so that when he finally went in, which he was going to do, whatever happened, Iraq would not have as much stuff for defending itself.

56 posted on 08/05/2003 2:21:09 AM PDT by grania ("Won't get fooled again")
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To: umgud
Exactly, he sure went out of his way to make it appear that he did have them. We all heard how Saddams hynchmen were wire tapped and the things they said between themselves, like, "I can't believe they didn't see that", or, "did you hide this or that?".

If it was some kind of strategic mind game Saddam was playing in his drug deluded mind, he lost. The man was a druggy and an addict, there is no real telling how great his self delusion was telling him how things were going in his favor. The very fact that he stood in the way of weapons inspectors strongly suggested he was hiding WMD's.

Personally, I believe Syria has them, I have said from the begining they are a snake that bears watching. I would be one happy camper if we rolled on Syria next instead of Liberia. Who gives a care if they act aggressively towards us or not? No one but drowining democrat rat politicians desperately trying to find any debris left from their ship wrecked party to hold onto.
57 posted on 08/05/2003 6:19:18 AM PDT by MissAmericanPie
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To: ladyinred
It isn't that he didn't have them, however it might be that he had plenty of time to destroy and hide them. No way he had none at all.

There's no "might" about it, he had an entire year during which we dillied and dallied. He had enough time to bury centrifiges and MiG jet fighters in the sand. If the poisons are still in the country they're well-buried, you can be sure of that.

58 posted on 08/05/2003 6:22:04 AM PDT by jpl
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To: RLK
The attempt is being made to substitute that argument as it becomes clear the original stated purpose was not justified. We're being suckered with a switcheroo.

Not so, Pres. Bush mentioned freeing the Iraqis from Sadaam many times in speeches and statements during the run-up to war. It may not have been the most important reason, since he was still trying to hew somewhat to the UN resolutions, but it was always there.

I thought this was a very intersting article, and Fukayama makes a VERY important point when he says that if there turn out to be no WMDs, that it WON'T be a failure of Bush's policies since Clinton has already stated publicly that the Bush folks had the same intelligence that his admin. had. It will be difficult (but not impossible given the mainstream media) for the Nine to turn this into an anti-Bush thing.

59 posted on 08/05/2003 6:50:55 AM PDT by SuziQ
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To: Pokey78
It was Saddam Hussein's responsibility to show the destroyed weapons, means, materials. He is the one to blame. If he didn't have the weapons (huh? he's used them before?) then he did a damn fine job of fooling the world. And thus it would still be his fault. The UN passed 17 resolutions, and at no time did he ever feel the obligation to fulfill any of them.

Too bad, so sad.

Our concern should be if the weapons aren't in Iraq, where are they?
60 posted on 08/05/2003 6:55:47 AM PDT by eyespysomething
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