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To: untenured; dead
this is unacceptable to second-tier powers, who have their own national interests to defend, interests that an unconstrained US will be able to override. They are compelled to tie Gulliver down. This clash between the interests of the hegemon and of the second-tier powers is irreconcilable in the existing system. Sooner or later, most of the second-tier powers, perhaps even Britain, will find it necessary to oppose the U.S.

I find Britain to be an unlikely candidate around which a second-tier coalition will gather. They are too close to the US in culture, language, and values. Additionally, Britain has no prospects for regional hegemony, and a nation unable to awe its neighbors can not hope to amass a counterweight to US hyper-power.

Candidates for #2 in the balance-of-power void are few, as in one: China.

China has vast natural and human resources, and a rapidly modernizing and industrializing economy. From a military standpoint, they are geographicaly secure, but are currently unable to project their military might on a scale remotely comparable to that of America. China's designs, however, are decades-long and more humble in the short term. Their first, modest projection of military power will most likely involve Taiwan, and America's response (or lack thereof) to that projection will establish the realgeopolitik for the following decades.


43 posted on 08/05/2003 10:59:07 AM PDT by Sabertooth (Dump Davis)
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To: Sabertooth
"Candidates for #2 in the balance-of-power void are few, as in one: China. China has vast natural and human resources, and a rapidly modernizing and industrializing economy. From a military standpoint, they are geographicaly secure, but are currently unable to project their military might on a scale remotely comparable to that of America. China's designs, however, are decades-long and more humble in the short term. Their first, modest projection of military power will most likely involve Taiwan, and America's response (or lack thereof) to that projection will establish the realgeopolitik for the following decades."

Well, yes and no. Although I truly liked the article, the military situation as described by the author is based upon a 2 dimensional, bi-polar world.

There's more to it than that.

Especially since the U.S. isn't following the old rule book of past super-powers who all conquered territory and taxed said regions.

And since the U.S. is acting differently than past super-powers, the old rulebook no longer applies.

There is not some magic "bi-polar" force that persuades other nations to cede their own interests in favor of "balancing" the one super-power.

It ain't there, and it ain't gonna happen.

Instead, because the U.S. isn't manipulating and ruling the world's nether-regions, what you've got is that you have traditional regional rivalries that will continue to flare up, and then one side of that rivalry (at least) will try to convince the U.S. to step in.

But first and foremost you've got regional conflicts. Thus, China's regional goals run smack into Japan's, Taiwan's, and India's, all three of which have in sum more people, a superior economy, and superior militaries to China. Likewise, all three have the technology and capability to field nuclear ICBM's and other massive weapons.

Nor will countries in the Middle-East simply come together to "balance" the U.S. On the contrary, Middle-Eastern countries are historically known for guessing at what other power will be the "winner" and then signing on with it as if they had always been best friends. The idea of spurning their #1 customer, their #1 aid partner, the #1 technology source, and the #1 military all for some esoteric "balancing" act in some fantastical "bi-polar" world of the author is ludicrous.

But the merit of the article isn't in the the military guesses or the bi-polar nonsense, but in the recognition that the U.S. has triumphed in all possible fields of human endeavor (culture, economy, military, technology).

And on that point the author hits the home run.

49 posted on 08/05/2003 11:38:57 AM PDT by Southack (Media bias means that Castro won't be punished for Cuban war crimes against Black Angolans in Africa)
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To: Sabertooth
What you said. :) Yep. The upside is that I will probably achieve my final exit prior to things getting very nervous again. China needs to get involved in some unfortunate foreign adventure and get its chops licked. Prior to then, it strikes me as akin to Bismark Germany, ie, a place that bears close and nervous watching, with its facist tendencies not being subject to any pyschological check. Most Chinese think the future belongs to them, and they may well be right.
76 posted on 08/05/2003 9:03:24 PM PDT by Torie
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