S. Korea: No more sunshine

FYI

Ping!

Will China use its influence,will the years of blackmail end?Will NKorea cut its own throat?Tune in to the endless negotiation that seems to be in store.Kim lives like an emperor while many starve.

Re #3

It is like a nightmare. Things get worse and worse. At the worst moment, you suddenly wake up from it. And it is gone.

It has been said what we need to do is show NKorea we won't attack.They were working on Nuclear weapons during the nonthreatening Clinton years despite the agreement and when SKorea was funneling money for "sunshine."I will say the thing that helps the Nkoreans is the fear of an attack on SKorea(though NKorea would suffer and lose ,they could do damage)Now of course they threaten our west coast and Japan.I wish Kim would have a stroke!

Re #5

It is tempting to use a voodoo doll and a lot of pins.:)

Right!If I only knew the right chants!

Carnegie Non-Proliferation Project : North Korea Nuclear and Missile Timeline

2001

17 April

In remarks to a Texas A&M Conference titled ?North Korea: Engagement or Confrontation?? Deputy Director of Central Intelligence John E. McLaughlin says that North Korea "probably has one or two nuclear bombs." McLaughlin also states that North Korea "is busy at work on new [missile] models that could reach the United States itself with nuclear-sized payloads. "

22 February

A statement from North Korea's foreign ministry criticizes the U.S. for failing to honor its KEDO commitments. The statement says that North Korea is considering pulling out of the agreements and may also recommence testing its long-range missiles.
When asked at a press conference about "North Korea's statement that it might abandon its freeze on its missile programs and long-range missile tests if the Bush administration continues a 'hard-line approach,'" National Security Adviosr Rice replies that "all we've said about North Korea is that it is a regime to be carefully watched ... we are very concerned about the proliferation of missile technology that is coming out of North Korea, and about the North Korean indigenous program."

17 January

The Republic of Korea announces that, following extensive consultations with the U.S., it "has adopted guidelines under which it will be able to possess missiles capable of delivering a payload of at least 500 kilograms to a range of at least 300 kilometers."

2000

28 December 2000

President Clinton announces that he will not be visiting North Korea, saying that there "is not enough time" remaining in his administration to reach an agreement on missiles. Following Albright's visit, the President had considered going to Pyongyang if the two countries reached an agreement whereby North Korea suspended its long-range missile programs. One possible agreement may have involved North Korea ending these programs in exchange for having satellites launched by another country.

3 November 2000

The U.S. and North Korea conclude three days of talks in Kuala Lumpur focused on Pyongyang's missile programs without signing any agreements. U.S. lead negotiator Robert Einhorn characterized the discussions as "detailed, constructive and very substantive," but also emphasized that "significant issues remain to be explored."

23 October 2000

US Secretary of State Albright arrives in North Korea. During her visit, the Secretary receives assurances from North Korean officials that the country has no future plans to test missiles. Although no agreements are signed during the Secretary's visit, the two sides agree to hold further talks in the coming weeks.

10 October 2000

President Clinton meets with a top North Korean military commander Jo Myong Rok, the first meeting between a US President and a senior official from the DPRK. The two sides draft a joint communique during the visit.

15 June 2000

North and South Korea agree to work toward reunification in an accord signed at a historic summit in Pyongyang between South Korean President Kim Dae Jung and North Korean leader Kim Jong Il.

1999

12 September 1999

The United States and North Korea reach an agreement in which North Korea pledges that no new missile flight tests will take place in the near future in exchange for the lifting of sanctions.

1998

31 August 1998

North Korea test fires its Taepodong-1 missile.

15 July 1998

The Rumsfeld Commission issues a report to Congress concluding that North Korea could threaten the United States with ballistic missile capabilities within five years of a decision to acquire such capabilities.

1996

November 1996

Under US pressure, North Korea cancels a planned No Dong launch.

1995

10 March 1995

US, South Korea, Japan establish Korean Peninsula Energy Development Organization (KEDO) to coordinate the stipulations of the "Agreed Framework."

1994

21 October 1994

A series of discussion between North Korea and the United States conclude in the "Agreed Framework."

13 June 1994

North Korea withdraws from the IAEA.

2 June 1994

Clinton decides to pursue sanctions against the North after receiving IAEA assessments. North Korea prompted the measure by declaring it would never allow IAEA inspection of two undeclared nuclear waste sites that would determine past levels of plutonium production.

June 1994

North Korean President Kim Il Sung agrees to freeze his nation's nuclear program in exchange for Western aid and a resumption of dialogue with the United States.

1993

11 June 1993

North Korea suspends its withdrawal from the NPT one day before it would have taken effect, but asserts IAEA inspections of its nuclear facilities are no longer feasible.

12 March 1993

North Korean Central People's Committee anounces North Korea's withdrawal from the NPT.

1992

May 1992

IAEA initiates series of inspections to verify North Korea's inventory of nuclear materials. The agency soon discovers plutonium production discrepencies.

1991

31 December 1991

North and South reach an agreement on a nuclear -free Korean Peninsula

19 October 1991

US announces it will withdraw all nuclear weapons from South Korea.

1986

23 June 1986

North Korea announces that it will refrain from testing, producing, or stockpiling nuclear weapons.

1985

12 September 1985

North Korea signs the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty

Carnegie Non-Proliferation Project : North Korea Nuclear and Missile Timeline

2001

17 April

In remarks to a Texas A&M Conference titled ?North Korea: Engagement or Confrontation?? Deputy Director of Central Intelligence John E. McLaughlin says that North Korea "probably has one or two nuclear bombs." McLaughlin also states that North Korea "is busy at work on new [missile] models that could reach the United States itself with nuclear-sized payloads. "

22 February

A statement from North Korea's foreign ministry criticizes the U.S. for failing to honor its KEDO commitments. The statement says that North Korea is considering pulling out of the agreements and may also recommence testing its long-range missiles.
When asked at a press conference about "North Korea's statement that it might abandon its freeze on its missile programs and long-range missile tests if the Bush administration continues a 'hard-line approach,'" National Security Adviosr Rice replies that "all we've said about North Korea is that it is a regime to be carefully watched ... we are very concerned about the proliferation of missile technology that is coming out of North Korea, and about the North Korean indigenous program."

17 January

The Republic of Korea announces that, following extensive consultations with the U.S., it "has adopted guidelines under which it will be able to possess missiles capable of delivering a payload of at least 500 kilograms to a range of at least 300 kilometers."

2000

28 December 2000

President Clinton announces that he will not be visiting North Korea, saying that there "is not enough time" remaining in his administration to reach an agreement on missiles. Following Albright's visit, the President had considered going to Pyongyang if the two countries reached an agreement whereby North Korea suspended its long-range missile programs. One possible agreement may have involved North Korea ending these programs in exchange for having satellites launched by another country.

3 November 2000

The U.S. and North Korea conclude three days of talks in Kuala Lumpur focused on Pyongyang's missile programs without signing any agreements. U.S. lead negotiator Robert Einhorn characterized the discussions as "detailed, constructive and very substantive," but also emphasized that "significant issues remain to be explored."

23 October 2000

US Secretary of State Albright arrives in North Korea. During her visit, the Secretary receives assurances from North Korean officials that the country has no future plans to test missiles. Although no agreements are signed during the Secretary's visit, the two sides agree to hold further talks in the coming weeks.

10 October 2000

President Clinton meets with a top North Korean military commander Jo Myong Rok, the first meeting between a US President and a senior official from the DPRK. The two sides draft a joint communique during the visit.

15 June 2000

North and South Korea agree to work toward reunification in an accord signed at a historic summit in Pyongyang between South Korean President Kim Dae Jung and North Korean leader Kim Jong Il.

1999

12 September 1999

The United States and North Korea reach an agreement in which North Korea pledges that no new missile flight tests will take place in the near future in exchange for the lifting of sanctions.

1998

31 August 1998

North Korea test fires its Taepodong-1 missile.

15 July 1998

The Rumsfeld Commission issues a report to Congress concluding that North Korea could threaten the United States with ballistic missile capabilities within five years of a decision to acquire such capabilities.

1996

November 1996

Under US pressure, North Korea cancels a planned No Dong launch.

1995

10 March 1995

US, South Korea, Japan establish Korean Peninsula Energy Development Organization (KEDO) to coordinate the stipulations of the "Agreed Framework."

1994

21 October 1994

A series of discussion between North Korea and the United States conclude in the "Agreed Framework."

13 June 1994

North Korea withdraws from the IAEA.

2 June 1994

Clinton decides to pursue sanctions against the North after receiving IAEA assessments. North Korea prompted the measure by declaring it would never allow IAEA inspection of two undeclared nuclear waste sites that would determine past levels of plutonium production.

June 1994

North Korean President Kim Il Sung agrees to freeze his nation's nuclear program in exchange for Western aid and a resumption of dialogue with the United States.

1993

11 June 1993

North Korea suspends its withdrawal from the NPT one day before it would have taken effect, but asserts IAEA inspections of its nuclear facilities are no longer feasible.

12 March 1993

North Korean Central People's Committee anounces North Korea's withdrawal from the NPT.

1992

May 1992

IAEA initiates series of inspections to verify North Korea's inventory of nuclear materials. The agency soon discovers plutonium production discrepencies.

1991

31 December 1991

North and South reach an agreement on a nuclear -free Korean Peninsula

19 October 1991

US announces it will withdraw all nuclear weapons from South Korea.

1986

23 June 1986

North Korea announces that it will refrain from testing, producing, or stockpiling nuclear weapons.

1985

12 September 1985

North Korea signs the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty

Canada

North Korea Approves Multilateral Nuclear Talks > Audio (page 3 of 4)

Audio

-	The experiences of N.Korea asylum seekers - BBC (Jun 27, 2001)
-	North Korea Seeks Economic, Not Military, Talks with U.S. - NPR (Jun 18, 2001)
-	Proposed US-N.Korea Talks: "So far, no official reaction [from South Korea]" - BBC (Jun 7, 2001)
-	"There really has not been any... variation in the US support for Kim Dae-Jung's sunshine policy" - BBC (May 10, 2001)
-	Japan Detains Suspected Son of North Korea's Leader - NPR (May 3, 2001)
-	North Korea: Seeing America through enemy eyes - The Connection - WBUR (Apr 2, 2001)
-	South Korea Reshuffles Cabinet - NPR. (Mar 26, 2001)
-	U.S. Re-evaluates 1994 Agreement with North Korea - NPR. (Mar 13, 2001)
-	Powell voices concern over North Korean army - NPR (Mar 8, 2001)
-	Korea into the Future - PBS (Mar 8, 2001)
-	"I think the administration will be looking for more movement on security issues" - BBC (Mar 8, 2001)
-	"President Bush has made it vey clear tht he will treat North Korea as a signficant threat" - BBC (Mar 8, 2001)
-	North Korea's Kim Jong-Il Makes Surprise Visit to China - NPR (Jan 18, 2001)
-	"South Korean reports say Mr Kim wants to see for himself China's economic reforms in action" - BBC (Jan 16, 2001)
-	North Korea to Hand Over Remains of 15 U.S. Soldiers - NPR (Nov 10, 2000)
-	Relations improve between U.S. and North Korea - NPR (Oct 30, 2000)
-	U.S. Incursion Casts Shadow on N. Korea Peace Effort - NPR. (Oct 27, 2000)
-	Albright Briefs S. Koreans on Trip to North - NPR. (Oct 25, 2000)
-	Albright Ends Historic North Korea Visit - NPR (Oct 24, 2000)
-	Albright Makes Landmark Visit to North Korea - NPR (Oct 23, 2000)
-	"Pyongyang has yet to sign a formal peace agreement with the US" - BBC (Oct 23, 2000)
-	Albright To Visit North Korea - NPR. (Oct 12, 2000)
-	Thawing Relations - PBS (Oct 11, 2000)
-	Clinton Meets With Top North Korean Official - NPR (Oct 10, 2000)
-	Korea Reconciliation Developments: U.S. troops - NPR. (Sep 12, 2000)
-	North Korea denounces U.S. as 'rogue state' - NPR (Sep 7, 2000)
-	"More heart-wrenching scenes as families said their last farewells" - BBC (Aug 17, 2000)
-	Historic Family Reunions in North and South Korea - NPR. (Aug 15, 2000)
-	"Reopening the offices is yet another sign of warming ties" - BBC (Aug 14, 2000)
-	"The agreement underlines the thawing relations between the two Cold War foes" - BBC (Jul 31, 2000)
-	Koreas reconnect with offices, railway - CBC (Jul 30, 2000)
-	Coca-Cola Enters North Korea - NPR. (Jun 22, 2000)
-	Coke Cola spokesman on moving into North Korea - BBC (Jun 22, 2000)
-	"US policy is aimed at encouraging North Korea out of its isolation" - BBC (Jun 19, 2000)
-	Coming Together - PBS (Jun 14, 2000)
-	North-South Korean Summit Postponed by Technical Problems - NPR. (Jun 12, 2000)
-	Breaking the Ice - PBS (Apr 10, 2000)
-	Two Koreas Agree to Summit - NPR. (Apr 10, 2000)
-	South Koreans excited about the news of a summit - BBC (Apr 10, 2000)
-	"North Korea has kept the world guessing" - BBC (Apr 10, 2000)
-	North and South Korea talk - NPR (Mar 7, 2000)
-	South Korea calls on U.S. to investigate war massacre - NPR. (Oct 1, 1999)
-	Easing Sanctions: Margaret Warner with William Perry - The Online NewsHour (Sep 17, 1999)
-	Albright recommends easing N. Korean trade limits - NPR. (Sep 14, 1999)
-	"N.Korea must show it isn't a threat before the US eases sanctions" - BBC (Sep 13, 1999)
-	Japan attempts to prevent N. Korea missile tests - NPR (Aug 12, 1999)
-	North Korea issues new threat to Japan - CBC (Aug 10, 1999)
-	Japan prepares warships over North Korean missile - CBC (Aug 9, 1999)
-	"N. Korea's missile programme isn't officially on the agenda" - BBC (Aug 7, 1999)
-	U.S. urges N. Korea to shelve missile program - NPR. (Jul 27, 1999)
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I am amazed that people insist on consistently overanalyzing and ascribing too high a level of complexity to the motivations on international bullies. N. Korea has a very simple, straightforward foreign policy. Namely, they will use force to acquire the property of others in order to prop up their economy until, as they believe will happen, scientific socialism is perfected. In the meantime, they feel morally entitled to the property of others and will use force or the threat to use force as a means to make that acquisition.

This leaves their neighbors(Japan, China, Russia and S. Korea) and other people involved in dealings with them (the US and the UN) with two options. These options involve either giving them what they want/need or beheading them so that they are incapable of further confiscating the property of others.

I don't understand why so many people miss this simple point.

until, as they believe will happen, scientific socialism is perfected.

To me, they are interested in not so much perfecting the scientific socialism as sustaining the current dynastic regime indefinitely. Other than that, I agree with you. People are reading too much into N. Korean behaviors. Their intentions are really straighforward.

In a decade or two from now, People will be embarassed by what they do now when they will look back at the current period.

I say we take off and nuke the site from orbit. It's the only way to be sure.

This is the classic bully situation - at what point do you draw the line and put up your dukes? You really don't want to fight over a small thing when your capitol is within artillery range of the border. But if you don't the things get bigger and bigger as the bully tries to find out what he can get away with.

This particular bully is trying to support a habit off other people's lunch money, and just like a drug habit this economically sterile kleptocracy has just about bottomed out. Nothing left to steal, the ultimate socialist nightmare. The gang is starting to eat its own - and in this case that metaphor is ghoulishly literal.

I think that up to now the North Koreans' ultimate move would have been some sort of atomic test, but that time has, perhaps, passed. A credible threat at this point might just have the U.S. and China sitting down at a table discussing what sort of interim government the North will have after the former have flattened the place. That conversation may already have taken place, but if not, we're close.

As we enter the "negotiating phase" here, a really good background read is "Over the Line: North Korea's Negotiating Strategy", by Chuck Downs and James Lilley -- a real good historical analysis of their bizarre negotiating behavior.

This is pretty black and white, and, indeed, history will look badly on those who were "trying to figure this thing out." Too little attention has been paid to the suffering and death of generations of human beings in North Korea, if that ever becomes a relevant factor.