[gsrinok]

You're right, Ambrose; those numbers will definitely firm up quite a bit by October 7th. It will take a huge swing, though, to keep Davis in office. If I were a betting man, I'd say that Davis is history.

The numbers that I really don't trust are Arnold's. As we get a lot closer to the actual election, if he hasn't campaigned in a way that shows he might actually know something about the job he so covets, a lot of people are going to think twice and look toward someone with more experience. That could mean a lot more prospective Republican voters leaning toward Simon or McClintock. If that happens, the dim votes just might put in Bustamente, who, in my opinion, is at least as incompetent than Davis.

[goldstategop]

Its Arnold's to lose. The point is the Democrats ace in the hole is Cruz Bustamante. They have DiFi but despite holding every statewide office they have no real "deep bench." What a difference a year makes! Life isn't in the habit of giving us too many second chances so we had better not screw this one up.