Posted on 08/12/2003 7:10:42 AM PDT by Dr. Marten
Thomas Christensen is Professor of Political Science at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.
CHINA
Thomas J. Christensen
September 11 provided an opportunity for increasing cooperation between the People’s Re-public
of China (PRC) and the United States because of the shared threat from militant Is-lamists.
Beijing took several steps to assist the U.S. war on terrorism. Although the impor-tance
of those efforts should not be exaggerated, the spirit behind them is quite meaningful, at
least for the near term. How long that spirit of cooperation will last will depend in large part
on relations across the Taiwan Strait and on economic and social developments in China.
China Provided Support for the War on Terrorism
China’s cooperation has included:
• Offering political support for Pakistan’s President Pervez Musharraf’s decision to side
with Washington in the war.
• Supporting a UN Resolution condemning the September 11 attacks and justifying a vig-orous
international response.
• Accepting U.S. forces in member-states of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization.
Beijing Also Fears Terrorism
Since China’s security policy focuses on regime preservation and the protection of national
integrity, Beijing places importance on its struggle against militant Muslim Uighur separatists
in its northwest Xinjiang region. Some militants in Xinjiang apparently have been trained and
supported by Islamists in Afghanistan, including Al Qaeda. Beijing has also used the impetus
of the war on terrorism to crack down on all separatists, and even the Falun Gong.
Areas of Disagreement with the United States Still Loom
Prospects for continued U.S.-China cooperation are unclear. Beijing is nervous about Washing-ton’s
extension of the war on terrorism to other states. Moreover, Beijing’s confidence hinges
upon its perception of trends in cross-Strait relations. Since the December 2001 legislative
12 • Strategic Asia 2002–03: Executive Summary The National Bureau of Asian Research elections in Taiwan, in which the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) performed better than expected, Beijing’s optimism about these trends has decreased markedly. A Military Build-Up Continues
A strong stance against Taiwan is considered essential to shore up the Chinese Communist
Party’s nationalist credentials, and hence regime security and domestic stability. Beijing is in
the early phases of a significant military build-up, focusing on weapons systems and doctrines
that will increase its capabilities to coerce Taiwan.
Recent Economic Growth Belies China’s Vulnerabilities
The other element of Communist Party legitimacy is economic performance. China’s GDP
has grown over seven percent per year and FDI has risen sharply since the 1997–98 Asian
financial crisis. China now has an $80 billion trade surplus with the United States. China also
has growing economic leverage over several regional actors, including Japan, many ASEAN
states, and Taiwan.
However, the challenge of maintaining both growth and social stability will be intensified
by China’s accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO), which will bring increased com-petition
to a vulnerable market. The banking sector faces serious problems due to the burden
of non-performing loans. Previously insulated state-owned enterprises (SOEs) and agriculture
will also face increased pressure.
Looking Ahead—Short-Term Conflict Avoidance, Long-Term Complications
During the anticipated political transition from Jiang Zemin to Hu Jintao in 2002–03, Beijing is
likely to avoid harming relations with the United States. In subsequent years, however, Hu
and his colleagues will need to protect their credentials as both staunch nationalists and as
providers of economic and social stability, particularly with respect to:
• WTO accession—the large-scale economic dislocations likely to develop will challenge
domestic political and social stability.
• Political liberalization—an increasingly open political process might increase CCP sensi-tivity
to perceived failure on Taiwan over the next decade.
• Preventing Taiwanese independence at reasonable cost—continued economic growth
is essential to China’s domestic stability, and tension or conflict over Taiwan might risk
China’s relationship with its three biggest trade and investment partners: Taiwan itself,
the United States, and Japan.
Implications for U.S. Policy
Prospects for peace between China and Taiwan (and the United States) depend on Beijing’s
assessment of political trends in Taiwan, trends in the U.S.-Taiwan relationship, and overall
U.S. regional security policy. If the United States can convince Beijing that it will not promote
and protect a legally independent Taiwan now or in the future, then:
• U.S. military superiority should deter war rather than provoke it.
• U.S. weapons sales to Taiwan will be seen as less provocative, and the PRC may feel
less inclined to proliferate weapons to countries that concern the United States.
• Beijing may be marginally less resistant to the U.S. prosecution of the war against ter-rorism
in other states, including Iraq.
Beijing Also Fears Terrorism
LOL! Communist China itself IS terrorism. China supports terrorists throughout the world. China also pioneers terrorism by their invention --"assymetrical warfare" and elevated it into state-of-the-art status.
Communism per se is as insolvent as China's banks. The sole remaining edifice is the monolith of fascism.
Communist as its middle name means it will resist destruction as would a scorpion.
Is China open to marketization and the global economy? Is it not rather "my way or the highway"?
China has no intention of "sowing the seeds of its own destruction"--it has a tremendous investment in the apparatus of repression at every level.
From its rape of Tibet, torture of Falun Gong, subversion of Hong Kong, censorship of internet and satellite television, China is open to nothing.
It adds seventy-five SRBMs to its cross-strait missile fields each year--for peaceful transition?
It was cutting deals with the Taliban within 24 hours of the September 11 attacks.
It continues to lobby against the U.S. ballistic missile defense while maintaining its annoying ululation of hegemon.
It inflates its growth figures and is in denial about the insolvency of its major banks.
It acquires Sovremennys for the sole purpose of killing 5,000 Americans at a pop.
And it wonders why it must take a back seat to the "warmer" relationship Bush formed with Putin.
Too much kabuki is emetic. China is aggressive, repressive, militarist and totalitarian.
Protestations to the contrary notwithstanding, China is the hegemon, whispering behind its fan that war with the main enemy is inevitable, the sooner the better.
When the Chinese seized our plane and crew--from international waters--I emailed protests to the Chinese Embassy.
Immediately my firewall registered pings from "technical institutes" in China and Korea.
Shocked, shocked I was.
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