Global warming not man-made phenomenon

GSA Today ^ | 12-Aug-2003 | Jerry Barach

[AdmSmith]

Global warming will not be helped much by efforts to reduce carbon dioxide emission into the atmosphere, say two scientists who have studied the matter.

Dr. Nir Shaviv, an astrophysicist from the Racah Institute of Physics of the Hebrew University of Jerusalem, and Prof. Jan Veiser a geochemist at the University of Ottawa in Canada and Ruhr University in Germany, say that temperature variations are due more to cosmic forces than to the actions of man.

In a recent article published in GSA Today (the journal of the Geographic Society of America) and described in Nature, Shaviv and Veiser tell of their studies illustrating a correlation between past cosmic ray flux ? the high-energy particles reaching us from stellar explosions -- and long-term climate variability, as recorded by oxygen isotopes trapped in rocks formed by ancient marine fossils. The level of cosmic ray activity reaching the earth and its atmosphere is reconstructed using another isotopic record in meteorites.

The study showed that peak periods of cosmic rays reaching the earth over the past 550 million years coincided with lower global temperatures, apparently due to the way that the cosmic rays promote low-level cloud formation (hence blocking out sun warming). No correlation was obtained, however, with the changing amount of atmospheric carbon dioxide.

The conclusion of the two scientists is, therefore, that celestial processes seem to be the dominant influence on climate change, and that increased carbon dioxide release, while certainly not beneficial, is only secondary to those forces which are beyond our control.

In practical terms, says Dr. Shaviv, "The operative significance of our research is that a significant reduction of the release of greenhouse gases will not significantly lower the global temperature, since only about a third of the warming over the past century should be attributed to man." Thus, say the scientists, the Kyoto accord of 1997 -- which was aimed at tackling the global warming phenomenon through limitations on carbon dioxide -- is not the panacea some thought it would be.

Taking the long-range view, Dr. Shaviv and Prof. Veiser believe that fluctuations in cosmic ray emissions account for about 75 percent of climate variation throughout the millennia. They acknowledge that this position pits them against prevailing scientific opinion, which still places a heavy emphasis on the negative role of greenhouse gases.

[AdmSmith]

This gives the historical record, add the variation of the flux of the sun and its effect on the magnetic belts around the Earth (shielding of cosmic radiation) and you have the explanation for global warming.

[King Prout]

Mars.
Titan.
Both warming up about like Earth is.

[AdmSmith]

The data is piling up.

[Only1choice____Freedom]

This can't be true! We would have to redesign all of our models. Where would our funding come from? These guys must be discredited!!!

[Elliott Jackalope]

Hey! Good info! Do you, by any chance, have a source for that info? Because that is pure gold for refuting the envirowackos claims.

[gatex]

Plants have filed a class action lawsuit to stop any actions to reduce CO2 --- such action would seriously harm all plants. They are asking for $3 trillion damages.

[King Prout]

I stumbled across it on the JPL/NASA website a coul=ple of years ago.

[cogitator]

Already well-discussed on this thread:

Here Comes the Sun

Interesting research and an interesting FR discussion.

[dead]

The cosmic ray theory seems to be to be even nuttier than the man-made theory.

[sleepy_hollow]

Once again, conventional wisdom is shown to be potentially poppycock. I always wondered how we could identify so-called "global warming." At most reasonably precise measurements of temperatures and other similar global parameters is a couple of hundred years old. Yet, the earth is supposedly eons old. How could any measurements at 10^2 (especially with the precision at fractional units?)have relevance to timescales at 10^9?

Of course the shuttle astronauts may have lost their lives due to this PC, feel-good, asinine foolishness, but that's another story...

[AdmSmith]

Cosmic "rays" i.e. particles may cause cloud formation.

[King Prout]

I'm hunting it now.
So far, nada.
Here's a minor reference to TRITON's global warming
http://www.spacescience.org/Research/PlanetaryScience/1.html

[RussianConservative]

significantly lower the global temperature, since only about a third of the warming over the past century should be attributed to man." Taking the long-range view, Dr. Shaviv and Prof. Veiser believe that fluctuations in cosmic ray emissions account for about 75 percent of climate variation throughout the millennia.

So man-made is 1/3rd of problem, yet cosmic ray emissions are 75% climate variation? 1/3 to 1/4 does not make sense...and you then say that other factors, like solar flares/radiation/activity cycles, continental drift, volcanic activity, air/water current not effects at all?

[dfwgator]

Duh!

[dead]

The idea that particles from stellar explosions millions of years and billions of miles of away account for 75% of "climate change" on our planet is absolutely absurd.

[King Prout]

more:
11-Dec-2001 - Study: Carbon dioxide ice caps eroding on Mars
Vast fields of carbon dioxide ice are eroding from the poles of Mars, suggesting that the climate of the Red Planet is warming and the atmosphere is becoming slightly more dense. Experts say that over time such changes could allow water to return to the Martian surface and turn the frigid planet into a "shirt-sleeve environment."
http://www.cnn.com/2001/TECH/space/12/10/snows.of.mars.ap/index.html
(dead link)


7-Dec-2001 - Red Planet Warming
High-resolution images snapped by NASA's Mars Global Surveyor show that levels of frozen water and carbon dioxide at the Red Planet's poles have dwindled dramatically — by more than 10 feet — over a single Martian year (equivalent to 687 days or about two Earth years). Michael Caplinger of San Diego's Malin Space Science Systems points out that if the warming were to continue at the same rate (that's a big "if"), Mars could become a nearly inhabitable place for people within 5,000 years or so. "Rather than wearing a spacesuit, you could get away with wearing just an oxygen mask and a thick parka," said Caplinger, who co-authored a study about the observations in this week's issue of Science. "It would be like standing on top of Everest."
http://abcnews.go.com/sections/scitech/DailyNews/mars011207.html

7-Dec-2001 - Mars could be undergoing major global warming (New Scientist)
Mars is undergoing global warming that could profoundly change the planet's climate in a few thousand years, new data suggests. High-resolution images taken by NASA's Mars Global Surveyor show that the permanent south polar "ice" cap shrank significantly between two successive Martian summers - a period roughly corresponding to two Earth years. If the trend continues at the same rate and the polar cap is entirely frozen carbon dioxide, "the whole cap would be evaporated in a few thousand years," Mike Caplinger of Malin Space Science Systems told New Scientist. This would release enough carbon dioxide to give Mars an atmosphere one-tenth the density of the Earth's. "That takes us from a situation of working in a near vacuum with a space suit to being able to run around on the surface with an oxygen mask and a heavy coat. It's what the terraforming people were always talking about," says Caplinger.
http://www.newscientist.com/news/news.jsp?id=ns99991660

Still hunting - none of these are the report I recall.
Damn me for not archiving it.

[Elliott Jackalope]

Thanks for the links. Very interesting stuff. I appreciate your efforts.

BTW, I know the feeling of not being able to find articles that I've referred to. It can be quite frustrating.

[r9etb]

The idea that particles from stellar explosions millions of years and billions of miles of away account for 75% of "climate change" on our planet is absolutely absurd.

Why do you say that?

[Libertarianize the GOP]

ping

[King Prout]

here's one of them:
http://mars.jpl.nasa.gov/mgs/msss/camera/images/CO2_Science_rel/index.html