The Future of Drones [FR EXCLUSIVE! SCCOP!]

Various ^ | 8/16/2003 | Southack

[Southack]

Although unheralded by the mainstream press (of whose members few would even be capable of recognizing the importance of such an event), a few American civilians were celebrating their tiny model airplane's 1,821 mile flight this week as if Christmas had arrived early.

 

Their tiny TAM-5, equipped with a satellite phone, computer, and GPS successfully guided itself from North America to Europe.

 

There was no pilot aboard.

 

http://tam.plannet21.com/

 

Considering the successes of large-scale, multi-million Dollar drones in the War on Terror (e.g. killing high-ranking Taliban with a hellfire missile in Afghanistan and killing high-ranking al-Qaeda operatives in Yemen with a similar weapon launched from yet another unmanned drone), it is worth noting that these civilians built an unmanned drone for the Scrooge-like sum of mere thousands of Dollars, and then flew it across the entire Atlantic ocean on six Dollars worth of gasoline to within 35 feet of its designated target area.

 

When one examines the history of self-guided drones (some included below from various sources), it becomes clear that drone technology is becoming either cheaper to build, more accurate, and/or with greater range each year.

 

So while we may be flying a half dozen pricey, unmanned military drones to patrol our borders in places like Florida and Arizona today, and while we are flying a few dozen such drones over more hostile territory in the Middle East and Asia this year, it won't take yet another rocket scientist to figure out that in the future, super-cheap drones are going to be swarming over battlefields in quantities that may very well number into the hundreds of thousands at a time.

 

Moreover, we have to come to grips with the fact that mere civilians can build these inexpensive drones, as well as that they have now been proven to be able to fly non-stop across entire oceans.

 

The particular drone in question, the TAM-5, is actually a more complicated version than necessary.  Rather than write the software needed to self-guide this particular craft internally, someone else may opt to simply pilot it via its satellite telephone link and remote computer instructions, much in the same way that countless model aircraft are already radio controlled today.

 

What military won't be enticed to operate such simple, stealthy craft that cost so little and fly so far, yet that could relay back inexpensive digital video for intelligence gathering purposes (not to forget the additional potential for either arming the craft directly, or to use the craft to mark a target via laser or GPS coordinates)?!

 

This is the future of drones.  Inexpensive civilian versions of which have already flown themselves across the Atlantic Ocean on $6 worth of gas.

 

And while the mainstream media won't be clever enough to see any significance in this event, don't make the mistake of thinking that various military and terrorist organizations will be so dull.

 

Likewise, it shouldn't surprise anyone to see various Patriot organizations flying such craft across Cuba, Iran, and North Korea...dropping pro-freedom leaflets and causing major headaches for the tyrants in power in those regions.

 

And who knows, if the media is ever barred from some celebrity's outdoor wedding one day, even the press may see fit to operate a couple of these drones in order to beam back low quality [pun intended] live video feeds.

 

---

TAM-5's North American Launch

 

Tam 5 where it landed at Mannin Beach, Ireland

Photo courtesy of Ronan Coyne

 

By the late 1930s, Goddard grew troubled. He had noticed long before that of all the countries that showed an interest in rocketry, Germany showed the most. Now and then, German engineers would contact Goddard with a technical question or two, and he would casually respond. But in 1939 the Germans suddenly fell silent. With a growing concern over what might be afoot in the Reich, Goddard paid a call on Army officials in Washington and brought along some films of his various liquid-fueled Nell rockets. He let the generals watch a few of the launches in silence, then turned to them. "We could slant it a little," he said simply, "and do some damage." The officers smiled benignly at the missile man, thanked him for his time and sent him on his way. The missile man, however, apparently knew what he was talking about. Five years later, the first of Germany's murderous V-2 rockets blasted off for London. By 1945, more than 1,100 of them had rained down on the ruined city.

Rebuffed by the Army, Goddard spent World War II on sabbatical from rocketry, designing experimental airplane engines for the Navy. When the war ended, he quickly returned to his preferred work. As his first order of business, he hoped to get his hands on a captured V-2. From what he had heard, the missiles sounded disturbingly like his more peaceable Nells. Goddard's trusting exchanges with German scientists had given Berlin at least a glimpse into what he was designing. What's more, by 1945 he had filed more than 200 patents, all of which were available for inspection. When a captured German scientist was asked about the origin of the V-2, he was said to have responded, "Why don't you ask your own Dr. Goddard? He knows better than any of us." When some V-2s finally made their way to the U.S. and Goddard had a chance to autopsy one, he instantly recognized his own handiwork. "Isn't this your rocket?" an assistant asked as they poked around its innards. "It seems to be," Goddard replied flatly.

Goddard accepted paternity of his bastard V-2, and that, as it turned out, was the last rocket he fathered while alive. In 1945 he was found to have throat cancer, and before the year was out, he was dead. His technological spawn, however, did not stop. American scientists worked alongside emigre German scientists to incorporate Goddard's innovations into the V-2, turning the killer missile into the Redstone, which put the first Americans into space. The Redstone led directly to the Saturn moon rockets, and indirectly to virtually every other rocket the U.S. has ever flown.

Though Goddard never saw a bit of it, credit would be given him, and--more important to a man who so disdained the press--amends would be made. After Apollo 11 lifted off en route to humanity's first moon landing, The New York Times took a bemused backward glance at a tart little editorial it had published 49 years before. "Further investigation and experimentation," said the paper in 1969, "have confirmed the findings of Isaac Newton in the 17th century, and it is now definitely established that a rocket can function in a vacuum as well as in an atmosphere. The Times regrets the error." The grim Professor Goddard might not have appreciated the humor, but he would almost certainly have accepted the apology.

CULVER PICTURES

BORN Oct. 5, 1882, in Worcester, Mass.

1908 Begins studying physics at Clark University

1915 Proves that rocket engines can produce thrust in a vacuum

1926 Launches the first liquid-fueled rocket to an altitude of 41 ft.

1930 Begins working in Roswell, N.Mex; develops supersonic and multi-stage rockets and fin-guided steering

1945 Dies at age 62, holding 214 patents

V-1 'Buzz Bomb'

DEVELOPMENT OF A NEW WEAPON

In June 1944, the German army began the use of what would be a very unique, very deadly, and historical weapon called the V1. The 'V' stood for Vergeltungswaffe which meant "vengeance weapon." Better known to Londoners as the "Buzz Bombs" or "doodlebugs," these flying bombs made a very distinct sound as they flew overhead at low altitude, before the timing mechanisms expired, and the bomb fell to earth, and exploded.

 

A US Navy's JB-2 called the LTV-A-1, ready for launch from a submarine (November, 1944)

In July 1944, Northrop received a contract to develop the JB-1 turbojet-powered flying bomb under project MX-543. Northrop designed a flying-wing aircraft with two General Electric B1 turbojets in the center section, and two 900 kg (2000 lb) general purpose bombs in enclosed "bomb containers" in the wing roots. To test the aerodynamics of the design, one JB-1 was completed as a manned unpowered glider, which was first flown in August 1944.

 

Dragon-Eye battlefield drone

 

 

Predator  Long-endurance, Hellfire-armed (not shown) battlefield drone

 

 

Global Hawk Earth-navigating drone (900KG payload, 14,000 nautical mile range)

[Southack]

There are large numbers of commercial possibilities for cheap drones, such as surveying remote, isolated pipelines, or taking video in hostile or off-limits areas, or dropping advertisements or political statements, or monitoring sea temperatures/conditions over large, remote areas...or even carrying special delivery mail. $6 in gas to fly across the Atlantic [in less than 2 days] is going to open up numerous possibilities.

Who knows, perhaps cellular stations can be fit into such craft one day, obviating the need for cellular companies to tolerate mounds of local, county, state, and federal paperwork now needed to raise an antenae. Being able to stay aloft for almost 2 days likewise opens up many possibilities.

But mostly, it's the military/terrorist angle that will see the biggest paradigm shift due to this new technology.

It's too simple, too available, too cheap, and too powerful to ignore.

[donmeaker]

Cute! I don't buy Oscar Mayer, but I do like the car.

I went to a strip joint for a burger once, but the best thing there was the buns.

[Lazamataz]

it is worth noting that these civilians built an unmanned drone for the Scrooge-like sum of mere thousands of Dollars, and then flew it across the entire Atlantic ocean on six Dollars worth of gasoline to within 35 feet of its designated target area.

You pilots just became obsolete. ;^)

[Buck W.]

I know--I followed that story with interest. Perhaps I have not been clear. I'm thinking of a somewhat narrower band sniper, say a single gun with a common bullet, that can remove a single individual cleanly and without collateral damage.

[donmeaker]

The problem is, in any military or tactical situation there is always a lot more air than meat. The purpose of Global Hawk is to allow the shooters to focus on the meat, for hours at a time. Our foes got pretty good at tracking the spy satilites, and making their move when the eyeball blinked or was over the horizon. Global Hawk has enough endurance that it can fill in the gaps, enough altitude so that it is darned hard to shoot down, and is unmanned so if it is shot down, you care, but not that much. It forces an enemy air defense guy to put his skin on the line when there is no chance to kill an enemy.

The best thing to do is to run and hide, and that only buys a brief time, till he is followed and rooted out. You can't fight the US. Best to learn manners.

[Southack]

Civilians can build such a device today.

Few people ever realize that they were living inside the very moments when history changed. We're in such a time right now.

[TexasBarak]

Check this one out-

http://www.interestingprojects.com/cruisemissile/

[Southack]

The DIY Cruise missile is budgeted for $5,000.

The working V-1 buzz bomb was built for less than $3,000.

At the very least, air forces are going to refrain from retiring their obsolete aircraft and instead turn them into unmanned, guided aerial bombs.

[Diddle E. Squat]

The commercial opportunities for drones seem almost limitless, which is why there will probably be a severe regulatory clamp placed on them.

Invasion of privacy-what a great tool for the paparazzi, suddenly fences and property lines are no longer hindrances, at a fraction of the cost of renting a copter or plane, and no risk to the life of the pilot & photographer. I'm sure that the National Enquirer, divorce lawyers, blackmailers, & Terry Lenzner grasp the potential.

Crowded skies/controls - so now we'll need a new layer of air traffic control, yet needing a much more refined micro level of finesse(of course that may be coming anyway, if some types of personal transports really do become accepted). With all these little flying ant drones buzzing around, the risks of them inadvertantly impacting general aviation or crashing into themselves becomes a real problem, sorta like letting ATV's and pedestrians run around on freeways.

Terrorism - with a mass commercial operation of drones routinely buzzing all around the country, the opportunity for stealth anonymous hit and run missions moving undetected increases exponentially. How do you tell the terror drone from the FedEx, News5 traffic, Nextel, Entertainment Tonight, Halliburton, Blue Moon Investigators, INS, LA Trial Lawyers Consortium, Girls Gone Wild Backyard, and CHP ones?

[Diddle E. Squat]

Not to mention the AFL-CIO/Dem prosecutor drone, looking for wedge-issue worksite violations.

[Southack]

Let's not forget that drug smugglers might enjoy using unmanned drones to bring in their shipments, as well as gun runners using unmanned drones going into Europe and various Bahamian islands.

Campaigning in public might take a different shift, too, due to the threat of an unmanned aerial assasination.

Voting from the rooftops just got some competition.

[wildbill]

I think the most interesting part of the technology is not that they could build something that would fly the distance--although that is fantastic--but the miniturization of GPS and sattellite communications that let them monitor and direct the flight of such a small aircraft over long distances.

[Southack]

FYI

[eno_]

What about some islamoscumbag flying one of these full of some WMD into America? How do we stop this?

We are currently stopping this by going to their lairs, finding their records of who they trained, hunting them down, and killing them. That is the only way to stop terrorists, no matter what technology they use.

[VOA]

bump

[AdamSelene235]

As an anti-personel/assasination device I've always thought a robotic hummingbird would be ideal. Each hummingbird droid could be equipped with a Ricin tipped .22 lr. If production cost was low, a swarm of these critters could be released in a theatre or even for home defense. They would be most effective if they had distributed intelligence. Once could use its .22 to shatter a window and the others could enter a dwelling. A simple necklace with an RF beacon could identify friends from foes.

I've got a swarm of the little buggers up at my cabin. They like to sip sweet coffee from the bottom of my cup when I take breakfast in the morning. I don't see how you would stop or evade such a zippy platform.

[null and void]

A hummingbird on caffine. That's a vivid picture...

[Calvin Locke]

Just clicked on the History Channel during 1PM EDT hour. "Remote Controls".

R/C hobby jets have reached 285mph, but are limited to 200mph for "safety". 30lb thrust.

One guy said he had $14K in his, another $25K.

Start them with propane/butane mix, then to JP1 kerosene.

[Travis McGee]

This is the future, there is no stopping them. Leaflets or single shot pistols or explosives for delivery into countries like Cuba would be easy. Sender and receiver merely have to exchange GPS points to make the pickup. Or anthrax etc could be sent over a city. There are no limits to this concept.

BTW, I'll be out of the area and off line from the 17th to the 24th. I'll start mailing out the books on the 25th.

Matt