Replies

"West
CA - Marin & Strickland
WA - Nethercutt
NV - Gibbons
SD - Thune?
ND - Dale Brown?

South
NC - Burr
SC - DeMint, Condon, Ravenal, et al
GA - Cain, Collins, Isakson, Bartell
FL - Byrd, Webster, Weldon, Foley, McCollum
AR - Huckabee????? [Huckabee’s overall favorability rating was 59.4 percent in the poll (Aug 14th), about the same as U.S. Sen. Blanche Lincoln, D-Ark., who received a 60.4 favorability rating.]

Elsewhere
IL - Ryan, Cox, Oberweis, McKenna
WI - Michels, Welch, others

Plus the Alaska probable primary and possible open seats in OK and LA."

West:

Ca - Forget about it.

Wa - Tossup/Leaning Slightly Democrat. Usually a Republican from Eastern Washington couldn't win a statewide election in Washington, but Usama bin Murray is a very weak candidate.

NV - If Gibbons runs (I think he will), he will win, because Jimbo will blowout Reid in Washoe. If he doesn't, the GOP is toast there.

SD - Thune will win if he runs.

ND - Leans slightly Republican if Brown runs. Dale Brown looks like he will finally take the plunge and run against Byron. Ed Schafer may have recruited a very strong candidate in Brown. AuH2ORepublican has told me that Brown is well known and liked in ND and can raise a good amount of money.

South:

NC - Leans strongly to a Burr win whether or not Edwards decides to run for Senate again (I don't think he will).

SC - DeMint should win the nomination and he'll defeat Inez Tenenbaum thanks to a hefty Bush bounce.

GA - I like Mac Collins to win the primary and take it all in Georgia.

FL - Leans Republican. I am a proponent of Daniel Webster, but Unless conservatives, like McCollum, drop out, Foley will win the primary.

But I think Foley would be a good candidate, not as good as Webster, but I think he can pull it off.

AR - I don't know what Huckabee is doing waiting so long to make up his mind. I don't think he'll run, but that's ok because Asa Hutchinson is the White House favorite to take down Blanche Lincoln; and Asa has said publicly that it would be very hard for him to say no if the WH asks him to run.

The sooner Huckabee makes up his mind, the sooner Asa can jump in.

IL - Leans Democrat. Jack Ryan will win the primary and will probably loose the election.

WI - If Michels wins the nomination, Leans Republican. Tim Michels has the potential to be 2004's Saxby Chambliss, ie an candidate that comes out of nowhere and takes down a heavily favored incumbent.

Michels is a succesful businessman who can self finance part of his campaign. He is also a veteran, and says his main campaign theme will be National Security.

This is a shrewd move because Michels, as a veteran, will be able to contrast his service to the nation with Feingold's obstruction of national security from his votes against the Patriot act and the Iraq war resolution.

Alaska - Safe Republican. George Allen and Rove are hell bent to prevent any primary challenge to Murkowski.

This will allow Murkowski to spend all of her time to hit Knowles over the head with the only argument that Murkowski needs: Voting for a Democrat Senator will risk giving the Senate back to the Democrats and thus ensure that ANWAR will never be oppened to drilling.

LA - The Democrats had better pray to GOD that Breaux doesn't retire because there will be a mighty Bush Bounce all across the South and especially in LA.

In FL, Daniel Webster has yet to declare his candidacy. FL House Speaker, Johnnie Byrd, has entered the Senate race, and is out raising funds.

In AR, Gov. Huckabee says he wants tend to state matters first before he gives any thoughts about a Senate race. So far, Huckabee is taking his own sweet time.

CA - Forget me NOT! Tom McClintock will have good name recognition by then. AND, if Rnold is in the guber mansion, he'll pull Republicans to the polls. If Busty's there instead, the state will be screwed worse so voters will be irate and running to the polls. Aither way, CA-'04 will have massive non-Democrat voter turnout which makes defeating Boxer, who is weak anyhow, all the more possible.

SD - Well it certainly won't be leadfoot Janklow. South Dakotans better first be looking for someone to replace him in the House. Thune?

GA - I like Herman Cain. Plenty of his own money, and plenty of conservative bible-belt blacks in that state to come out and vote for him.

IN - can Marvin Scott defeat Bayh? Hoosier state is pretty solid Republican. How popular can Byebye be?

MD - Marbara Mikulski IS beatable. I know Michael Steele says he isn't running, but the Repubs are foolish for not fielding even a half decent candidate for this race.

NY - can Michael Benjamin beat Schumer the tumor? Schumer didn't win by much last time and is a chief obstructionist of judicial nominees (some of whom happen to be hispanic, black, and women).

In LA there will probably be a runoff it Breaux retires, right. Bush would only be on the ballot in November.

Pretty good analysis..a few points for your consideration, if I might:

1. If Breaux retires, expect Dona Brazile to announce..she'd be tough to beat..and she's been positioning herself in case the seat opens up..that's why she declined several offers to run Dem presidential campaigns....I happen to think Breaux will retire, BTW..

2. Alaska won't be close....W at the top of the ticket, and ALL the Dems in the Senate opposed to ANWR drilling...Lisa will be able to make the point that Alaska gains nothing from electing a Dem to the Senate, and besides with W getting 60% of the vote....man, that's a powerful lot of ticket splitting that would be needed..

3. Cal may be a surprise...a couple of reasons..the recall thing is a tsunami..but no one has yet figured out the direction of the tidal wave....if Davis quits...as I think he'll be forced to do..then Boxer will be the first Dem statewide to face the voters..she could catch a lot of the blame for what the dems have done to Cal...also..there's the possible "westcoast " effect int he election...if it's Bush v. Dean, for example..the race could well be decided around 10pm est....way before the Cal polls close, and the early exit polls are gona leak all over the net...thus, a lot of Cal dems could decide to saty home and not bother...it could be enough to cost Boxer her seat...

Pubbie, these are my comments to your Senate-race handicaps:

"CA - Forget about it."

I disagree, we can win this thing. Boxer is too liberal even by CA standards, and if Rosario Marin can get even 35% of the Hispanic vote, she will win.

"Wa - Tossup/Leaning Slightly Democrat. Usually a Republican from Eastern Washington couldn't win a statewide election in Washington, but Usama bin Murray is a very weak candidate."

Agreed. While I don't think we should underestimate Nethercutt, he does have a bit of an uphill climb.

"NV - If Gibbons runs (I think he will), he will win, because Jimbo will blowout Reid in Washoe. If he doesn't, the GOP is toast there."

You're probably right on both counts.

"SD - Thune will win if he runs."

From your lips to God's ears. And we need Thune to run; otherwise Daschle will coast to reelection.

"ND - Leans slightly Republican if Brown runs. Dale Brown looks like he will finally take the plunge and run against Byron. Ed Schafer may have recruited a very strong candidate in Brown. AuH2ORepublican has told me that Brown is well known and liked in ND and can raise a good amount of money."

Whoa, whoa, whoa. I did say that Dale Brown is a local boy he made good and is well known in the state, and that he has the connections to raise big money, but I don't think it would be Brown's race to lose if he runs. Dorgan would still be the frontrunner, although I think Brown could pull it off because of the many disadvantages faced by Dorgan for the first time (which I described in the Dale Brown thread).

"NC - Leans strongly to a Burr win whether or not Edwards decides to run for Senate again (I don't think he will)."

I think Edwards will run, but I agree that it leans relatively strongly to Burr.

"SC - DeMint should win the nomination and he'll defeat Inez Tenenbaum thanks to a hefty Bush bounce."

I hope DeMint does get the nomination, and if he does he should win regardless of how large Bush's coattails are. But the coattails will help him win comfortably.

"GA - I like Mac Collins to win the primary and take it all in Georgia."

Well, I like Herman Cain to win the primary and the general. But if Mac wins the primary, I also agree he'd win in November. Our problem is the possibility of pro-abort Johnny Isakson buying the GOP nomination and getting beat by a moderate RAT because Isakson can't carry the conservative Dem South Georgia counties that gave Perdue and Chambliss the victory in 2002.

"FL - Leans Republican. I am a proponent of Daniel Webster, but Unless conservatives, like McCollum, drop out, Foley will win the primary. But I think Foley would be a good candidate, not as good as Webster, but I think he can pull it off."

I'm afraid you're right. There's no run-off in Georgia, so we need to have just one conservative out there. And I also like Webster, and so, allegedly, does President Bush So we need both McCollum and Byrd to drop out, and to convince Weldon not to get in. If Foley gets the nomination, I'm afraid he'd lose to Penelas or Boyd, although he should beat the more liberal Deutsch or Hastings.

"AR - I don't know what Huckabee is doing waiting so long to make up his mind. I don't think he'll run, but that's ok because Asa Hutchinson is the White House favorite to take down Blanche Lincoln; and Asa has said publicly that it would be very hard for him to say no if the WH asks him to run. The sooner Huckabee makes up his mind, the sooner Asa can jump in."

I agree, Asa is the man. I'm not sure Huckabee could pull it off.

"IL - Leans Democrat. Jack Ryan will win the primary and will probably lose the election."

It's too early to write off Jack Ryan, especially since we don't know who the RAT nominee will be. If Hull or Pappas or Chico get the nomination, it would be Ryan's race to lose. If Obama gets the nod, it would be tougher for Jack, but I think he'd be a slight favorite. His toughest race would come against Hynes, but even then he'd have a good shot of winning. I don't know if Ryan will get 75% of the female vote (as JohnnyZ insists), but I'm certain his looks will help him do much better than if he looked like, say, Dennis Kucinich.

"WI - If Michels wins the nomination, Leans Republican. Tim Michels has the potential to be 2004's Saxby Chambliss, ie an candidate that comes out of nowhere and takes down a heavily favored incumbent."

I hope you're right. While Feingold is vulnerable because he's too far left for Wisconsin, Michels will have his work cut out for him.

"Alaska - Safe Republican. George Allen and Rove are hell bent to prevent any primary challenge to Murkowski. This will allow Murkowski to spend all of her time to hit Knowles over the head with the only argument that Murkowski needs: Voting for a Democrat Senator will risk giving the Senate back to the Democrats and thus ensure that ANWAR will never be oppened to drilling."

First of all, if a conservative in Alaska wants to run in the primary, there's nothing Allen or Rove or even President Bush could do to prevent him or her. Second, Knowles is not someone who should be taken lightly. While I agree that Murkowski should use the ANWR argument as much as possible, it may not work because (i) few people believe that the RATs can retake the Senate, even if the win AK, (ii) having a GOP Senate and 2 AK Republicans in it has not been enough to approve ANWR exploration, and (iii) Knowles will surely argue that, as a Democrat, he may be able to sway a couple of RATs to his side, just as Senator Stephens could do with Republicans, and get the 50 votes for passage. So I think Murkowski will survive the primary and go on to beat Knowles by like 52%-43%, but not before some scares along the way.

"LA - The Democrats had better pray to GOD that Breaux doesn't retire because there will be a mighty Bush Bounce all across the South and especially in LA."

If Breaux retires, the seat will most definitely lean Republican. But if Chris John runs for the RATs, it won't be a slam dunk regardless of who our candidate is (especially with the recent history of sour grapes among Republican primary losers).

Pubbie, you forgot to mention PA. I think Toomey has a good shot of retiring Specter in the primary, and then defeating Hoeffel (or whoever) in the general. Hoeffel's gun-grabbing record won't help him any in blue-collar Dem areas.

And in NY, we will take out Schumer if Rudy runs. If Rudy doesn't run, it will not even be close. It's that simple. Run, Rudy, run!

Can someone tell me why NOBODY wants to challenge Ron Wyden in Oregon? Sure, he's a popular incumbent, but he's also a Portland liberal in a state that Bush will almost certainly carry in 2004.

Maryland and Connecticut are pretty much hopeless, and my preference would be to convince RINO Congressmen Gilchrest and Shays to run in their respective states. They would have as good a chance as anyone to defeat the ultraliberal incumbents, Mikulski and Dodd, but more importantly it would get them the hell out of the House and allow us to elect conservatives in their districts (Gilchrest's district (as redrawn in 2002) is ridiculously Republican, and Shays' district is the most Republican in Connecticut).