Schwarzenegger avoids debate
ANALYSIS: RISKY STRATEGY FOR GOP HOPEFUL
By Dion Nissenbaum and Mary Anne Ostrom
Mercury News Sacramento Bureau
(AP Photo/Steve Yeater)
Arnold Schwarzenegger greets fans during a campaign stop at the California State Fair in Sacramento, on Monday, Sept. 1, 2003.
When the top competitors vying to replace Democratic Gov. Gray Davis take the stage today for the first debate in California's historic recall election, the forum may well be defined more by the candidate who doesn't plan to be there: Republican front-runner Arnold Schwarzenegger.
The actor's decision to avoid the nationally televised forum is the latest example of a calculated end run around the political establishment that Schwarzenegger is betting will propel him to the Capitol on Oct. 7.
Despite pledges from his advisers that the actor wouldn't run his campaign like a staged Hollywood movie premiere, Schwarzenegger is dodging tough questions, delaying interviews with political reporters and diverting criticism of his thin knowledge of state government by staging pep rallies that allow him to grab the spotlight without stumbling.
It's a risky strategy with potentially big rewards.
Schwarzenegger's international celebrity status has overshadowed his competitors in the recall. His political events are carried live on television. He is swarmed by fans wherever he goes. Even his absence is news.
``A debate without Arnold Schwarzenegger is like going to Pac Bell Park and Barry Bonds isn't playing,'' said Hoover Institution Research Fellow Bill Whalen, a onetime Schwarzenegger adviser.
Schwarzenegger and his team are well aware of the actor's ability to monopolize attention in the recall. One aide privately likened the movie star's challengers to the puny Lollipop Kids in ``The Wizard of Oz,'' and Schwarzenegger himself tried Tuesday to dismiss his political rivals for trying to hang onto his coattails.
``You have to understand that a lot of those candidates try to get, you know, more visibility and all that stuff by mentioning my name,'' Schwarzenegger said on KFI-AM radio in Los Angeles. ``It gives them air time and it gives them television and all those things. I understand the way this works, and if I can provide that for them, I'm more than happy to do so.''
Although he won't appear in today's debate, Schwarzenegger has agreed to take part in one forum with his rivals later this month in which the candidates will get the questions in advance. He said Tuesday that he was too busy talking to voters to participate in any more.
While Schwarzenegger's strategy is annoying his opponents and critics, it is the envy of some political strategists.
On Monday, Schwarzenegger was mobbed by cheering fans at the California State Fair, skirted tough questions, and ended the event by throwing campaign T-shirts over the heads of journalists and cameraman to supporters jostling for position and shouting out questions.
Talking to voters
``It's a metaphor for the campaign,'' said Kevin Spillane, a Republican consultant who worked for former Los Angeles Mayor Richard Riordan in his failed 2000 bid for governor. ``It's the fantasy of almost every politician alive to be able to go over the heads of the political press corps and talk directly to the voters.''
But Spillane said there is still a credibility gap with some voters Schwarzenegger needs to reach who ``still view him as nothing more than an actor'' who knows little to nothing about how to run a nation-state like California.
Schwarzenegger spokesman Rob Stutzman challenged the notion that the actor is following a Hollywood strategy and avoiding the press, even though he has granted fewer interviews than any other major contender.
``This is a candidate who regularly makes himself available,'' said Stutzman.
While every other top challenger has agreed to talk with California's political press corps, Schwarzenegger has refused to sit down with print journalists -- despite repeated assurances from his campaign that the actor would quickly give interviews.
Nearly a month has passed since Schwarzenegger entered the race, and still no interviews have been scheduled. Instead, the actor has made time to appear on a half-dozen conservative talk radio shows.
That strategy may be starting to shift, although Schwarzenegger is sticking to television, where most Californians get their news: On Tuesday, he gave four interviews to Los Angeles TV stations.
When the actor does take questions at public events, he is able to pick and choose which ones he answers, and often takes time to answer questions from entertainment reporters more interested in trivia than substance.
Inside access
``It's like trying to get to the front row of a Clash concert with festival seating,'' said ``Inside Edition'' reporter Logan Byrnes, who was thrilled when Schwarzenegger answered his question at an Aug. 22 Huntington Beach stop about whether there was a rift brewing with liberal actors who share the same talent agency.
One reason Schwarzenegger may be avoiding lengthy interviews is that he has sometimes stumbled under tough questioning, said University of Southern California political science Professor Sherry Bebitch Jeffe.
``There may come a time when voters want to hear more from him, but from his campaign's point of view he's done far worse when opening his mouth around the press,'' she said.
The campaign got off to a rough start when Schwarzenegger struggled to answer questions on several morning television shows shortly after he declared his candidacy.
His campaign was preparing to set up newspaper interviews last week, when news broke about a controversial 1977 interview with Oui magazine in which Schwarzenegger bragged about sexual exploits.
``With a campaign like this one of zero substance, the center of gravity moves to character and values,'' said Marty Kaplan, director of the Norman Lear Center at the University of Southern California. ``That's currently being defined for him. He either needs to deal with it or change the subject to how he's going to fix the economy.''