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The major difference in 2004 from 1992: Lee Atwater died and wasn't around for the 1992 campaign like he was in 1988 - Karl Rove is going to get W over the top in 2004.

You are right about Lee Atwater..he was quite a strong figure..when he passed away..Daddy Bush lost a strength..

Very true. We haven't really replaced Atwater (though Rove has the magic touch for now).

I think President Bush will win (325-350 EVs or so), and with mild coattails (+2 or 3 in the senate, House more or less the same).

I say mild only because I think several pockets of the country are just out of reach for Republicans., at least in this generation. The days of Reagan-like electoral vote landslides in favor of the GOP are over. The Northeast corridor down to NJ is hopeless (for now) - they are braindead, even after 9-11, and this goes doubly so for NYers, who suffered the most from the 9-11 attacks.

I lived in NYC on 9-11-01, and the one thing I couldn't shake was how transparent the support of the typical NYer was. Only months earlier, 77% voted for Hillary Rodham for their Senator, who handily won the state.

Since when did having a strong military become so important to them? When it was their spouses and children crushed by the natural results of the holes the Clintons left in our national defense. Their support was born in selfishness and self-centeredness, not genuine strength of character.

So I knew it would erode, and quickly. Months ago, 200,000+ NYers rallied in midtown against the war in Iraq. Clueless, and arrogant - a dangerous combination. Now in 2004, they will vote in large numbers against their primary defender, Dubya, and handily re-elect the naddering nabob, Chuck Schumer.

It was a pleasure to leave NYC after growing up in the streets of manhattan and living there for 34 years.

The typical NYCer is of low character and suffers from the sin of vanity. Just as well, we will still win, and they can just be left behind. I don;t doubt at all that they will suffer the largest damage in the next terrorist attack stateside. They have done little to help themselves, and I can't say I sympathize with them much.