WEATHER BULLETIN: WARNINGS LIKELY AT 11 P.M. FOR STRENGTHENING HURRICANE ISABEL

National Hurricane Center, Miami ^ | Sept. 16, 2003 | National Hurricane Center, Miami

[varina davis]

BULLETIN

HURRICANE ISABEL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 43A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2003

...WARNINGS LIKELY AT 11 PM...

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LITTLE RIVER INLET SOUTH CAROLINA TO CHINCOTEAGUE VIRGINIA...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS...CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NORTH BEACH MARYLAND...AND THE TIDAL POTOMAC.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM NORTH BEACH NORTHWARD. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTH OF CHINCOTEAGUE TO LITTLE EGG INLET NEW JERSEY... INCLUDING DELAWARD BAY. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTH OF LITTLE RIVER INLET TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA.

A TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

AT 8 PM EDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ISABEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.2 NORTH... LONGITUDE 71.5 WEST OR ABOUT 545 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA.

ISABEL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS POSSIBLE PRIOR TO LANDFALL.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 275 MILES.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 956 MB...28.23 INCHES.

LARGE OCEAN SWELLS AND DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS ARE BEING EXPERIENCED ALONG PORTIONS OF THE U.S. SOUTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC COASTS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL ALSO CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF THE THE BAHAMAS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

REPEATING THE 8 PM EDT POSITION...28.2 N... 71.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 956 MB.

FOR STORM-RELATED INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE...AND STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM EDT.

FORECASTER LAWRENCE

[varina davis]

NHC still indicates Cape Hatteras is the likely landfall point, but not certain. All along the Eastern Seaboard need to rush preparations.

[Husker24]

This could be really dangerous if alot of people didnt evacuate because Isabel weakend, and now if it streigthens signifigantly, could pose real problems.

[Petronski]

Bulletin

Hurricane isabel intermediate advisory number 43a nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl 8 pm edt tue sep 16 2003

...warnings likely at 11 pm...

A hurricane watch remains in effect from little river inlet south carolina to chincoteague virginia...including the pamlico and albemarle sounds...chesapeake bay south of north beach maryland...and the tidal potomac.

A tropical storm watch remains in effect for chesapeake bay from north beach northward. A tropical storm watch remains in effect for north of chincoteague to little egg inlet new jersey... Including delaward bay. A tropical storm watch remains in effect for south of little river inlet to south santee river south carolina.

A tropical storm or hurricane watch means that tropical storm or hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area...generally within 36 hours.

At 8 pm edt...0000z...the center of hurricane isabel was located near latitude 28.2 north... Longitude 71.5 west or about 545 miles south-southeast of cape hatteras north carolina.

Isabel is moving toward the north-northwest near 8 mph and this motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours.
Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph...with higher gusts. Some increase in strength is possible prior to landfall.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 160 miles from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 275 miles.

The minimum central pressure measured by an air force hurricane hunter aircraft was 956 mb...28.23 inches.

Large ocean swells and dangerous surf conditions are being experienced along portions of the u.s. southeast and mid-atlantic coasts. These conditions will also continue over portions of the the bahamas for the next few days.

Repeating the 8 pm edt position...28.2 n... 71.5 w. Movement toward...north-northwest near 8 mph. Maximum sustained winds...105 mph. Minimum central pressure... 956 mb.

For storm-related information specific to your area...please monitor products issued by your local weather office...and statements from local emergency management officials.
The next advisory will be issued by the national hurricane center at 11 pm edt.

Forecaster lawrence

[AntiGuv]

[Nexus]

The pressure has dropped from 959 at 5PM to 956 at 8PM EST. Let's hope it's not a trend.

[TSgt]

Look at that photo and tell me there is no God...

[Catspaw]

My daughter, who lives in NJ, just finished her Isabel prep. She said she learned her lesson from Floyd.

[GirlShortstop]

Yo Petro, you are quite good at reformatting to sentence case... I noticed and thank you.  Nothing like being yelled at by weather people, is there?  FReegards!

[Starwind]

I know an Isabel...they're beautiful when they're angry.

[Rain-maker]

13L.ISABEL
Forecast by National Hurricane Center Graphic by Naval Atlantic Meteorology and Oceanography Center	1KM
(Click product for full sized image 47014 Bytes and 279827 Bytes.)

[varina davis]

That's good to hear. Hope no one takes this storm for granted.

[CAPPSMADNESS]

Strange how something so deadly can be so beautiful.....

But then, all of His creations are a work of art!

[Petronski]

It's a command in Microsoft Word. It's nice, but it sure plays hell with the acronyms. ;o)

[Treebeard]

Southwest quadrant looks weak, still. No telling what this thing is gonna do.

[Lokibob]

When a hurricane is forecasted for land fall, I use my weatherbug to watch the winds, rainfall, and baro pressure.

It is facinating. A couple of years ago, I saw a peak gust recorded of 125 mph. Rainfall you wouldn't believe and you can see when the eyewall passes by the baro pressure.

All you have to do is type in the name of the nearest city to the forecasted landfall and it generally gives you 10+ choices of stations to monitor.

[ErnBatavia]

I've been scouring these threads just to see how my potentially-affected FReepers are reacting....and I'm glad I live where "the skies are not cloudy all day" (even if it IS California).

[Petronski]

If all goes well, I'm only going to get realllllly wet.

[MEG33]

It is awe inspiring.Hope this one weakens..I just heard the category 4 waves will be hitting the beaches even though the winds won't.Stay safe and God go with all you east coasters.

[Gabz]

For your sake I hope you're right.

I don't feel so lucky in my neck of the woods.........

To be honest, I would prefer the wind to the rain - we can't handle any more water around here.

[Lokibob]

On another forum, I have a number of aquaintences stareing down the barrel of Isabel and I am very concerned.

One has a mother-in-law, not able to drive living in a mobile home in Newport Beach, VA. I encouraged her to notify the authorities who can/could assist in any evacuation.