WEATHER BULLETIN: WARNINGS LIKELY AT 11 P.M. FOR STRENGTHENING HURRICANE ISABEL

National Hurricane Center, Miami ^ | Sept. 16, 2003 | National Hurricane Center, Miami

[MEG33]

Good thinking.

[ChefKeith]

Am currently in the Raleigh-Durham, NC area. Was at the beach today (Carolina Beach at the east end of I-40) about 1/2 the windows in town were boarded up and the rest were in process of it. Everybody seemed more inconveinenced than scared of it.

The waves were getting bigger (5-8'?) when We left about 15:00 EST

[Reaganwuzthebest]

They've already got storm warnings in NY for heavy rains and winds on Friday. Not that we need it, but at least it should be just a bad rainstorm by the time it reaches us, if it does.

[Howlin]

[cmsgop]

Oh Man! Be Safe!

[ChefKeith]

It is in God's hands what happens.

I have been through several back in Texas over the years.

I will deal with it as needed.

[Interesting Times]

From storm2k:

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Recon reported a pressure of 950 mb/ 28.05" 11 n mi sw of where they fixed the center...which makes me wonder if the 957 mb report was the true center of the eye....or did they miss the center, and the 950 mb pressure reading the true central pressure...

I guess we'll know in a few hours....on the next penetration of the eyewall.

*snip*

Also note the warmest temp at flight level (18°c) was ALSO at the location of the lowest pressure (950 mb) -- yet they claim it wasn't the true center?

That's B.S. guys....everyone knows the lowest pressure AND warmest temps are located at the center of the eye. I think the recon missed the center, and Miles Lawrence was too friggin clueless to pick up on it.

If I were the NHC forecaster, this hurricane would be initialized at 100 kts and 950 mb....based on both the lowest pressure and warmest eye temp at that same location. If that point isn't the center of the eye -- it soon will be..

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If these guys are right, Isabel is strengthening significantly right now.

[Gabz]

I may not be in the red zone of this - but that yellow zone by 6pm Thursday does not thrill me in the least. Even if it is only on the border of the yellow/green.

[Howlin]

Who is that guy? He scares me?

For example:

JetMaxx
Category 5 Hurricane



Joined: 20 Feb 2003
Posts: 14570
Location: Douglasville, Georgia
Posted: Tue Sep 16, 2003 4:36 pm Post subject: My 5 p.m. Isabel analysis/forecast (TUE 9/16)

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After weakening significantly overnight and this morning, hurricane Isabel appears to be holding it's own this afternoon. The outflow pattern looks favorable for strengthening, as does the latest model guidance...

The interaction between building high pressure off the northeast U.S. coast and a digging trough forecast to become negatively tilted should cause the hurricane to accelerate toward the NNW, and veer more toward the northwest as landfall approaches. I now expect landfall to occur late Thursday morning along the North Carolina coast between Morehead City and Cape Hatteras as very dangerous strong category three hurricane....borderline category 4 in the same intensity range as both Frederic (1979) and Betsy (1965) were at landfall.

It's not out of the realm of possibility that Isabel could become a category 4 hurricane prior to landfall given the synoptic similarities to past severe hurricanes such as Hugo (1989) and Hazel (1954)....which would be a record breaking hurricane for the Cape Hatteras to Cape Lookout area (record hurricane for Hatteras is the September 1944 hurricane....130 mph @ 947 mb).

One thing is clear to me.....Isabel is likely to strengthen prior to landfall, and is going to be an extremely large hurricane, which will cause hurricane conditions over a large area of the coastline from North Carolina to Maryland....with tropical storm force winds and coastal flooding as far north as Long Island; and possibly southern New England.
The tight pressure gradient between the hurricane and strong high pressure offshore will only enhance winds and tides hundreds of miles east of the hurricane track.

I also expect strong, even hurricane force winds to spread well inland along/ east of the path of the eye. Please take the warnings from the National Hurricane Center seriously, and if in a vunerable area to flooding/ storm surge, or are ordered to evaculate...DO IT, and without delay. I expect Isabel to accelerate toward the coast, and I am being conservative in my estimate. Isabel could well be moving in excess of 30 mph once onshore in North Carolina

Here's my forecast track and intensity:

CURRENTLY:

TUE SEPTEMBER 16, 2003
5 PM EST...27.8N - 71.4W....90 KTS (959 MB)

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FORECAST:

WEDNESDAY SEPTEMBER 17, 2003

5 AM EST...29.2N - 72.0W....90 KTS

5 PM EST...31.2N - 72.9W...100 KTS



THURSDAY SEPTEMBER 18, 2003

5 AM EST...33.5N - 74.9W...110 KTS (120 miles SSE - Cape Hatteras, NC)

10 AM EST..34.9N - 76.1W...115 KTS (Landfall near Ocracoke, NC)

5 PM EST...36.4N - 77.5W....85 KTS (Near Roanoke Rapids, NC)



FRI SEPTEMBER 19, 2003

5 AM EST...40.0N - 79.0W....55 KTS (Near Johnstown, PA)

5 PM EST...46.5N - 78.5W....EXTRATROPICAL/ 45 KTS (Over southwestern Quebec)

[Cagey]

Avalon Fishing Pier, Kill Devil Hills, NC (Live Cam)

[Howlin]

I hope we can watch that tomorrow!

[foreverfree]

Slightly off topic... 6 weeks ago when getting ready for an Outer Banks vacation, I visited 100000watts.com which is a site listing info on radio and tv stations, to find out info on eastern NC broadcast outlets. At the time, it was a free website.

Well, tonight, with Isabel having the OBX in her sights, I went back to 100000watts.com to find out how the tv stations in the region are covering the approaching storm, and it's now a pay site. Like the Left Behind mb going pay, 100000watts is one more bit of proof that the internet probably won't stay free forever (no pun on my handle intended, reverse or otherwise).

foreverfree

[TBall]

I could fall to sleep to that.

[Cagey]

I hope you had your speakers on.

[meowmeow]

Here in Northern VA, just got back from Lowes. There was hardly anyone there but the flashlights were sold out. Bought a new wet vac (our basement leaks in a normal rain) and some plywood, in case we have to patch some holes or windows (we need some for the attic floor anyway). Met an ex-marine in the plywood isle, buying some too. Said he lived in the Carolinas and "hurricanes ain't nothing to toy with." Did some trenching in the side yard to get the water down to the drain hole in the retaining wall. We're ready as we'll ever be. Prayers for all in her path.

[Howlin]

Sure did! I could listen all day!

[Howlin]

Stay safe!

[Calpernia]

Well, it is dark now; but this is a live cam from Cape Hatteras lighthouse that was posted on another thread.

[fatboy]

I live in the exact northern border of the tropical storm warning is issued at this time

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTH OF CHINCOTEAGUE TO LITTLE EGG INLET NEW JERSEY My home is Little Egg Harbor, NJ we are 15 miles north of Atlantic City. We are not in total panic mode today, like we were yesterday, since it looks like the storm will only nick us.

At this time I'm planning to attend my daughters back to school night at the Little Egg Intermediate school on thursday PM. We have put away the patio furnature and picked up loose objects in the yard. We will see what happens

Tom

[Gabz]

You were able to buy plywood tonight? Even in Northern, VA? I'm impressed.

It's hard to come by here on the Eastern Shore - although while running errands today was behind a truck making a delivery of it to oneoof the building supply/lumber yards.

It's actually being rationed in Maryland and Delaware.