Posted on 09/21/2003 2:53:26 PM PDT by SteveH
This is a pessimistic view of the California recall election from the conservative point of view.
Schwarzenegger made a number of huge strategic blunders in the California recall election. I surmise he is getting RINO advice from his RINO Quackenbush country club advisors. They probably told him to swing left early and bridge the gender gap. They probably told him not to bother consolidating support in his own party before swinging left, because more conservative politicians did not have his star power popularity and because they could never win in a liberal state. The conservatives would all be forced to follow Arnold when his strategy was revealed to succeed at the statewide level in the polls, and slowly but surely, conservative challengers (almost all of whom had already declared by the time Arnold entered the race) would be forced to step aside.
Usually these kinds of issues are determined by primaries. The primary winner has the winning message, by default. For the Republican Party, that winning message is conservatism. Even Bob Dole had enough sense to at least make a token pass at consolidating the right before moving left. That is the classic Republican strategy across the country, local, statewide, and national. Stoopid California state party leaders helped by declaring neutrality early in the recall (they had practically no choice, because they sat out the recall drive to begin with and hogtied themselves after it succeeded in spite of their early pessimistic predictions and cynical view about how Davis in office would help GWB in 2004.) And there was no official primary to help the process proceed along a logical course.
Arnold is now three days from a debate he undoubtedly has hoped to avoid at all costs. I can imagine his advisors assuring him early in the campaign that he would never be placed in this position. It appears that both Arnold and his advisors mis-understood the strength of conservative sentiment in California. Their mantra may have been that Simon lost in the 2002 California election because he was too conservative, ignoring the almost palpable fact that Simon lost because he strayed off-message during off the cuff discussions with reporters in the closing days of the campaign. How could Arnold's advisors explain to Arnold that Simon lost not because he was conservative, but because he was inexperienced? That would not have been congruent with Arnold's own personality: the myth that someone can jump into any new arena and win without paying dues. Arnold might have fired any campaign advisor who told him that on the spot.
If you don't consolidate support from the right, you get attacked from the right, as well as from the left. Duh! Arnold is too much a political novice to realize his own mistakes or to dump his advisors and change direction. The time has likely passed when it would have made a substantial difference in any case.
I think the problem started when Republican party leaders underestimated the strength of the recall movement. $20 or $30 billion is a lot to get caught in a lie about. Flat out lies generate their own momentum. The classic weakness of the liberal platform is economic: taxing and spending by government hurts the economy. The liberals had their bellies exposed, big time, in California earlier this year. The time was ripe for a conservative revolution! The point message of the unified Republican candidate should have been: reduce taxing and spending; reduce taxing and spending; and reduce taxing and spending. But the Republican party state and national leaders declined to climb on board.
The point message of the unified Republican candidate should have been: reduce taxing and spending; reduce taxing and spending; and reduce taxing and spending. This happens to be the McClintock point message. Arnold apparently didn't get the telegram that the voters were sending. Or maybe his Quackenbush brigade and his quasi-liberal friends put cotton in his ears. In any case, Arnold's platform is out there now, and it's just another Democratic platform clone if one ignores the labels.
Many party leaders have been blinded by Arnold's popularity. They now think Arnold is the only chance of winning. But they may have been wrong, because plentiful seeds of failure had already been sown. The Republican party at the state level is now a party divided. The conservatives feel betrayed, and justifiably so, no matter what McClintock does. Their voices were simply ignored, and Arnold's platform contains no conciliatory planks towards conservative voters. Why should they be enthusiastic for someone who gives lip service to their values and otherwise pandered to liberals throughout his campaign and in his platform? Arnold failed and failed miserably at the easy challenge (given his movie star popularity) of assuming leadership of his own party.
Now, after a month of recall campaigning, perceptions are fairly well set, and positions fairly settled. I would like to remain optimistic for any kind of reasonable replacement for Davis and Bustamante, but increasingly I get the impression that Arnold blew it.
The state and national Republican leaders are getting their wish. Davis remains in office. But his reckoning is now on hold, since the Republicans (with Arnold as their tragically flawed and wounded general) have been shown to be unable to offer voters a viable alternative.
I'm sure there will be many many articles like that after the election....
Schwarzenegger not only failed to consolidate the conservative base, he openly repudiated the core conservative message and ridiculed core conservative voters as "right wing crazies."
He chose to run as a liberal and must now live with his choice. The right wing crazies are not going to bail him out. I suggest that he redouble his frantic outreach to Democrats and hope enough of them will crossover and choose him over the other liberals in the race.
This argument is focused on strategy, not personalities. Please have a second look if you like, and subtract all mention of the names "Schwarzenegger", "Arnold", and "McClintock".
I'm not going to indulge Arnold supporters here with the personal stuff. If you really insist to go after someone, may I suggest Quackenbush.
Republican gubernatorial candidate Arnold Schwarzenegger shakes hands with supporters during a voter registration rally in Riverside, California, September 20, 2003.
Republican gubernatorial candidate Arnold Schwarzenegger greets supporters during a rally held at Mission Grove Plaza in Riverside, Calif., Saturday, Sept. 18, 2003. Schwarzenegger handed out yard signs a bumper strikers after a short speech. (AP Photo/Chris Carlson)
That's right. That's just what I am seeing in the last couple of days. Arnold still hasn't learned diddly from his experience, and his advisors are busy digging him ever deeper into the pit. Wonderful. If McClintock drops out, conservatives have to chase Arnold running as fast as he can away from them across the political spectrum.
I wonder when Arnold's going to appear with Jesse, or maybe Rev. Cecil Williams. Every time I think it can't get worse, it gets worse.
But hey, that's California for ya.
;-)
But that's the paradox. The D's had an open mind, but why take a chance on a R (and political unknown quantity at that) who sounds indistinguishable from Davis? Even logic dictates that you don't jump from the devil you know to the devil you don't.
Let's say I simply capitulate and put an Arnold sign on my car now. Then what do I say to people who ask me why they should can Davis and switch to Arnold? What do I tell them? "Because he can WIN"????
(obligatory sheesh)
You really don't get it, do you?
Sigh.
His supporters bear a big part of the blame.
Just consider his FReeper supporters. Do they blame Schwarzegger at all for his inability to scrape together more than 26 percent of the vote? Of course not. It's all McClintock's fault. To hear them tell it, Arnie has made NO errors in judgment or campaign execution. He is ENTITLED to the votes of the "right wing crazies." Why? Because he's Arnold.
Even more bizarre, not one of them will agree that Schwarzenegger's liberal positions are weighing him down. No, as far as they are concerned his social liberalism is irrelevant to his fitness for office. They don't criticize him, they don't even bring his liberalism up. On the other hand, they brashly and rudely attack McClintiock for HIS conservative positions.
Up is down, and down is up; black is white and white is black.
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