*Poll says McClintock could win 1-0n-1 matchup*

National Review (The Corner) ^ | 9/22/03 | Peter Robinson

[TheBigB]

Brother Hugh, some news.

John Eastman, a professor of law at Chapman University and a frequent guest on your radio program, has just brought to my attention a poll that will interest you. Commissioned by the Lincoln Club of Orange County, the poll includes the following results:

If Arnold Schwarzenegger found himself in a head-to-head race against Cruz Bustamante--that is, in effect, if Tom McClintock dropped out of the race--then Schwarzenegger would win, 44 to 37 percent.

But if Tom McClintock found himself in a head-to-head race against Cruz Bustamante--that is, in effect, if Schwarzenegger dropped out of the race--then McClintock would win, 42 to 40 percent.

From the beginning, Hugh, you have made a single argument against McClintock, insisting that he cannot win.

But he can.

[JCEccles]

Many of Arnold's supporters have asserted just as strongly that Simon lost (a close race) only because he ran a crappy campaign. They are apparently conceding that had Simon run a good campaign, he would have won. That would mean a conservative can be elected governor of California. Do you not agree with your compatriots who made this assertion?

[RichInOC]

One minor problem...political candidates do not normally bow out of the race on behalf of others in their party if the others are losing to them by a substantial margin...not even if they're actors running their first political campaign. McClintock is well behind both Schwarzenegger and Bustamante in all polls. The only question is whether Arnold or Cruz is the leader. Any poll assuming as a condition that Schwarzenegger quits on behalf of McClintock is (for now, and most likely for the duration of the campaign) not dealing with political reality. Peter Robinson is an old political pro and ought to know better than this. And frankly, a lot of amateur political consultants here on FR ought to know better.

[Poincare]

To the point, the Dems know that McClintock is a formidable opponent, and they would love for him to drop out so they can slime Arnold big time. Tom is not only an insurance policy (if something happened to Arnold) he is a shield for Arnold in the sense that he is causing the Dem dirty tricksters to hold their fire. Tom says he will be in to the end--the end may be for him the day before the election if the Swartzenegge numbers hold. I have the greatest respect for Tom taking the heat from his own party for the good of the party.

[NYC Republican]

Tom's lips aren't thick enough!!! Yeah!!! and he's cross-eyed too!!! ;-)

That's a really low blow. Please stick to the issues, and not engage in Clinton-esque personal attacks.

[HamiltonJay]

No its the truth, show me the margin of error for this poll is less than the difference in their scores... which it isn't... McClintock Supports are in pipe dream land.

Its what now 13 days until the election, hes sitting at 1/2 the support of the lead republican and well behind the Democrat... he doesn't stand a chance in hell of winning.

Its not a matter of what I want... world doesn't revolve around what I or even you want... world revolves around what IS... and in this race McClintock's only roll to play is Perot spoiler.

McClintock can't win this race, isn't going to win this race, and the only roll he can possibly play in this election is to cost the Republicans a victory.

[NYC Republican]

Does it trouble you that there is a poll showing that a true conservative, Tom McClintock, could beat Bustamante? Shouldn't this please you?

Not at all, but the facts are

There's no confirmation whatsoever of these results, and

Arnold isn't going anywhere.

These "poll" figures are a pipedream and totally irrelevant.

[Kaslin]

The heading should be the same as the heading on an article, or it should be posted as Vanity, according to my understanding of the rules... I checked the NRO site, and couldn't find it.

I agree with NYC Republican the correct title is CALIFORNIA CRUNCH not *Poll says McClintock could win 1-0n-1 matchup*

[JCEccles]

In short, you don't want to the poll to be true either?

[muleskinner]

Yeah but, yeah but, yeah but......(good post, BTW)

[HamiltonJay]

What dead heat? Whats the margin of Error, and wheres the detailed poll analysis... for everyone here who is so quite aware of how polls are rigged and run... just jumping on this thing like its the holy hand grenade of antioc is crazy.

No way McClintock is above the margin of error in this poll, let alone the method in which it was taken. Sorry guys, McClintock is pipe dream... he's playing Spoiler in this election at best.

[Sabertooth]

BUT it's only a POST/letter to the editor, a response on the web, with unverifiable information, NOT even a legitimate letter to the editor, just a post, that anyone can post.

I could post to the same site that I saw a poll, where Arnold is leading Bustamante by 30 % points, then post it here on FR.

Could you please adjust the location of this, or even pull the thread.

The source fot the article is Peter Robinson at National Review online.

About Mr. Robinson, of Stanford's Hoover Institution...

HOOVER INSTITUTION

Peter M. Robinson

Peter M. Robinson is a research fellow at the Hoover Institution, where he writes about business and politics, edits Hoover's quarterly journal, Hoover Digest, and hosts Hoover's television program, Uncommon Knowledge^TM.

Robinson is also the author of the book, It's My Party: A Republican's Messy Love Affair with the GOP, published by Warner Books in 2000, and of the best-selling business book, Snapshots from Hell: The Making of an MBA, published by Warner Books in 1994 and still available in paperback.

Born in 1957, Robinson grew up in Vestal, a town in the rolling hill country of upstate New York. In 1979, he graduated summa cum laude from Dartmouth College, where he majored in English. He went on to study politics, philosophy, and economics at Oxford University, from which he graduated in 1982.

Robinson spent six years in the White House, serving from 1982 to 1983 as chief speechwriter to Vice President George Bush and from 1983 to 1988 as special assistant and speechwriter to President Ronald Reagan. He wrote the historic Berlin Wall address in which President Reagan called on General Secretary Mikhail Gorbachev to "tear down this wall!"

After the White House, Robinson attended the Stanford University Graduate School of Business. (The journal he kept formed the basis for Snapshots from Hell.) He graduated with an MBA in 1990.

Robinson then spent a year in New York City with Fox Television, reporting to the owner of the company, Rupert Murdoch. He spent a second year in Washington, D.C., with the Securities and Exchange Commission, where he served as the director of the Office of Public Affairs, Policy Evaluation, and Research. Robinson joined the Hoover Institution in 1993.

As the editor of the Hoover Digest since its inception in 1996, Robinson selects and edits articles with the intention of making the work of the Hoover Institution readily available to the public. As host of Uncommon Knowledge since the program began, in 1996, Robinson seeks to engage his guests in lively, informative discussions of public policy. Topics on Uncommon Knowledge, which is broadcast on stations on the Public Broadcasting Service (PBS), range from the legalization of drugs to affirmative action to censorship on the Internet. Uncommon Knowledge is a coproduction of the Hoover Institution and KTEH, the San Jose PBS affiliate.

The author of numerous essays and interviews, Robinson has published in the New York Times, Red Herring, and Forbes ASAP. He is the editor of Can Congress Be Fixed?: Five Essays on Congressional Reform (Hoover Institution Press, 1995).

Robinson lives in northern California with his wife and their children.

(2002)
Hoover Institution Link

Since Free Republic is all about finding the information other news sources miss, I'd like to suggest that FairOpinion's linking of this thread to Frontpage news was fair and proper.

Regards

[TheBigB]

Oh for God's sake..."California Crunch" sounds like a breakfast cereal. If the Admin Mod thought it needed to be changed, he'd have changed it, with no problem from me. He hasn't. He's been pinged here five or six times.

[FairOpinion]

Hellooo!!!

You didn't read my post.

Please try your reading comprehension test again:

See my post 15 -- I was the one who MISTAKENTLY bumped this to FrontPage News and after going to the link and realizing what this was, I decided I was mistaken in doing so:


Here is a copy of my post 15. Read it again!

Admin Moderator, any chance you can require posters to pass a reading comprehension test, before they are allowed to whine?
=====

To: TheBigB; Admin Moderator

OOPS! I just added this to frontpage news, because it it were true, it probably would be front page news.

BUT it's only a POST/letter to the editor, a response on the web, with unverifiable information, NOT even a legitimate letter to the editor, just a post, that anyone can post.

I could post to the same site that I saw a poll, where Arnold is leading Bustamante by 30 % points, then post it here on FR.

Could you please adjust the location of this, or even pull the thread.



15 posted on 09/24/2003 8:08 AM PDT by FairOpinion

[RichInOC]

The poll question's based on an unrealistic assumption, so the answer's not all that useful in the real world. Whether I want it to be true or not is irrelevant.

[Sabertooth]

What dead heat? Whats the margin of Error,

Read what I said again...

"While a 42 - 40 McClintock - Bustamante poll is a statistcal deadheat, given the margin of error..."

OK, let me rephrase it...

"While a 42 - 40 McClintock - Bustamante poll is a statistcal deadheat, given any margin of error you choose..."

The Lion's Club of Orange County has endorsed Schwarzennegger. Why would they fudge a poll showing McClintock with a legitimate shot at beating Bustamante?

[NYC Republican]

Oh for God's sake..."California Crunch" sounds like a breakfast cereal. If the Admin Mod thought it needed to be changed, he'd have changed it, with no problem from me. He hasn't. He's been pinged here five or six times.

The best way to do it would be the following, for future reference

California Crunch (Poll Says McClintock Could Win 1 on 1 Matchup).

[jmc813]

See my post 15 -- I was the one who MISTAKENTLY bumped this to FrontPage News

How do you bump something to Front Page News? You have me extremely confused.

[navyblue]

Both Arnold and McClintock on the Republican side at least have a chance to win. You may argue this point if you wish.

I am looking at the 4% for Huffington and the 3% for "others." These folks don't have a snowball's chance in hell of winning here. I would like to see them all drop out and blow away a little of the fog covering this thing. We would all get a little clearer picture should this happen. But then I suppose they will stay in because "it will look good on their resumes."

[UCANSEE2]

Just who is this guy POLL? I keep seeing articles stating he says this, he says that.

WHO CARES what he thinks? I have never found anyone else that believes the things this POLL guy does.