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"LA has the highest % of black voters in the country, and Brazile is superb at getting out the vote...remember, she brokered the last-minute deals that got the vote out for Landriue..which cost Terrell the race..."

Yeah, but Brazile won't carry white-majority precincts the way Landrieu did. Remember, Landrieu pretended to be a moderate, lied about her abortion record, put out adds saying she supported Miguel Estrada's nomination and basically fooled Louisianans into thinking she was just like John Breaux. Brazile won't be able to fool them, though.

Chris John, though, would be a tough candidate to beat, even for a good Republican candidate such as Vitter. Unless the jungle primary format is declared unconstitutional (as it should) before the summer of 2004, Brazile wouldn't be able to make the run-off with John and Vitter running. I think our safest bet would be if the jungle primary was declared unconstitutional and only RATs could vote in a RAT primary, giving Brazile the edge over John (and even if John won, black voters may be unenthusiastic in their support for him in the general election). But Vitter would still need to run hard against Brazile, since she's one smart cookie (20 times smarter than Senator Brownroots).

Scrapping the all-party primary won't help Brazile any. African-Americans don't turn out big for primaries. They have to be turned out, and it will be difficult for Brazile to do that without the party apparatus and BIG $ behind her. Secondly, almost all local offices all over the state are held by D's, even in conservative areas. So the R primary would have few voters. Most conservative whites would vote in the D primary so they could vote for sherriff, etc. They would vote against Brazile, giving John the nomination.