Latino vote seen as key to win in '04

AUSTIN - When Republican George W. Bush blew into Del Rio on a campaign swing in 1998, his use of Spanish and his ability to connect with Latinos made a believer out of Javier Martinez.

He voted to give the Republican another term as Texas governor and then to send him to Washington two years later. But Martinez, 55, a Del Rio businessman and host of a local radio talk show, won't be voting for Bush again..

"He does speak a little Spanish. He's very good at connecting with the Hispanic community. That was the reason we kind of believed in him," said Martinez. "I think he's probably trying, but he's not connecting anymore.".

Martinez' misgivings, and those of voters like him, could spell trouble for Republicans' efforts to gain a larger share of the increasingly important Hispanic vote, not only in Texas but across the nation. Amid persistent unemployment, uncertainty in Iraq and a racially explosive debate on congressional redistricting unfolding in the Texas Capitol, many Hispanic activists and lawmakers assert that Democrats are quickly making up ground that they lost to Republicans..

"I believe that the image has been damaged," said Laredo Sen. Judith Zaffirini, one of the 11 Texas Senate Democrats who fled to Albuquerque, N.M., in protest of a congressional redistricting plan. "I believe that this will backlash on George Bush during his re-election campaign. He cannot talk about reaching out to minorities and at the same time stand back and do nothing as his underlings are discriminating against minorities through redistricting.".

Not so, counter Republicans, who say that any ill-will over redistricting will be short-lived and lost on voters more preoccupied with schools and the economy than with who represents them in Congress. They also point to the recent constitutional amendment election as proof that their message appeals to Latinos. Proposition 12 -- the amendment capping noneconomic damages in medical malpractice lawsuits -- ran strong in many parts of heavily Hispanic South Texas, which turned out to be crucial in the Republicans' narrow victory..

"Proposition 12's victory, especially in South Texas and the border, demonstrates the opportunity that Republicans and conservatives have to make inroads in those regions," said Republican consultant Ray Sullivan, a chief organizer of the Pro-12 forces. "Once the party labels are gone, it's clear that Hispanic Texans support common-sense conservative policies." Although the two sides dispute the meaning of the constitutional amendment election and who's doing better in reaching out to Latinos, there is little question that Hispanics will be a crucial constituency in the 2004 presidential election and beyond. A million more Hispanics voted in the 2000 presidential elections than in the 1996 contest nationwide, and they are now considered the nation's largest ethnic minority group at nearly 40 million strong..

In Texas, Hispanics have seen their share of the electorate rise from 10 percent in 1994 to 18 percent in 2002, according to the William C. Velasquez Institute..

That might explain the feverish appeals that both parties are making, such as the bilingual debate held among Democratic candidates recently in New Mexico, and Republican outreach efforts in Texas and around the United States..

Close to home, Texas GOP chairwoman Susan Weddington has been taking Spanish classes for more than a year, and the party encourages local leaders to attend citizenship naturalization ceremonies to introduce new Americans to the Republican party..

"In the past it's been a little rough, but right now I think the Republican party has got a good program of Hispanic outreach," said Cruz Hernandez, a Fort Worth Republican Hispanic activist. "I don't see anything the Democrats are doing now that would want to make me vote for any of them.".

But given Latinos' historic preference for Democrats, many influential Republicans say it won't be good enough to maintain the status quo..

In a December 2001 analysis of the Latino vote from 2000, Republican National Committee pollster Matthew Dowd said Republicans would have to maintain their "upward trend" with Hispanic voters in order to remain competitive. "Otherwise, Latino population growth will simply be a recipe for Democratic gains," he wrote. In the last presidential race, Bush got an estimated 35 percent of the Latino vote, more than any Republican since President Reagan's landslide victory in 1984. Some critics say it will be tough to pull that off again. A summer survey conducted for the New Democratic Network showed Bush had suffered a 10-point drop in popularity among Latinos.

"The goodwill that President Bush went to such lengths to build with Hispanics seems to be eroding," Sergio Bendixen, who conducted the poll, said when the results were released. "Latinos really feel that someone who presented himself as their friend has now let them down."

On the other hand, a poll by Latino Opinions conducted in August found Bush in a statistical dead heat with Howard Dean, then the leading candidate for the presidential nomination; Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, D-N.Y., won a hypothetical matchup 47 percent to 31 percent. That was before Gen. Wesley Clark joined the field and shook up the Democratic race.

To the extent that Democrats might be poised to strengthen their hold on Latino voters in Texas, Fort Worth Republican political consultant Bryan Eppstein points to past examples of opportunities lost. He noted, for example, that multimillionaire Hispanic Tony Sanchez, a Democrat, lost the 2002 gubernatorial race to Republican Gov. Rick Perry despite spending a record $67 million. Perry got about a third of the Hispanic vote in that race, according to a Zogby exit poll.

Other past candidates, such as Dan Morales, the former attorney general waiting to go to federal prison on official corruption charges, and Lena Guerrero, who lost a railroad commission bid after lying on her resume, have dealt a blow to Democratic Hispanic outreach efforts, Eppstein said. "The highest ranking Hispanic officeholders who have aspired to ascend into statewide leadership in Texas have all had dubious demises, and that has set back Hispanic political opportunity more than any one thing," Eppstein said. However, some Hispanics say the same problems that confront Bush on the national level -- a stagnant economy and an increasingly unpopular foreign war -- are turning Latinos off to the Republican Party in Texas.

National figures show Hispanics disproportionately represented among the unemployed -- with the rate surpassing 8 percent during the summer -- and more likely than their Anglo counterparts to be uninsured and in poverty. In Texas, Hispanics constituted 60 percent of the state's poor in 2001, up from 52 percent in 1999, and were 59 percent of Texas' uninsured population in 2001, compared with 50 percent in 1999, according to Census figures.

"Hispanics are getting clobbered in the job market," said Democratic consultant Marc Campos, who specializes in Latino politics. "I, just for the life of me, don't think the Republicans can come over during the next campaign with a straight face and say to Hispanics, 'you gotta support us.'"

This article is baloney. Hispanics supported Bush as governer, but pull their support for a policy that happens after he leaves?

"He cannot talk about reaching out to minorities and at the same time stand back and do nothing as his underlings are discriminating against minorities through redistricting."

Huh?? He's not governer anymore, ya bimbo.

"That is why we have no border controls, no campaign against illegal immigration, no sensible policy for immigration."
Add to that list soaring health care insurance premiums (to subsidize illegals free health care), elimination of school programs to make way for English as a second language teachers, illegals in prison population soaring - bottom line huge deficits for years to vomr to pay for freebies for these people. Not much difference between Clinton's pandering to blacks and Bush's pandering to Latinos. In fact not much difference at all between Bush and Clinton except Bush doesn't seem to want to screw employees in the White House (like Bush's father did).

I agree with your comment about the redistricting but think the real point of the piece is the pandering by both parties to the latino community, legal and illegal. Our leaders, both sides of the isle, are more than willing to see unemployment rise with real wages decline so long as they can get the votes of the immigrant community. To them there is no difference between legal and illegal as they both vote. Voting is no longer a "right" or "privilage" of citizenship as it seems any one can vote.

Based on my experience in campaigns both in Texas and California, the Republicans would make a bigger dent by taking vote fraud seriously. We need Spanish speaking Poll Watchers posted in every minority precinct. In the 2000 election I found abuses such as the Election Judge telling the voters how to vote in the booth, people from other precincts trying to vote, and candidates campaigning inside the Polling place during voting. The Republican Party needs to get serious right now identifying Republican activists in every precinct in the nation. My presence prevented over 100 people from voting twice (who knows how many other precints they voted at?). Even if we have to pay the Poll Watchers something for the hazardous duty it would be money well spent. I guarantee that the Democrats were paying the Election Judge and the clerks for delivering the required numbers.

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