Poll: Davis in peril, Schwarzenegger shows strength

CNN ^ | NA

[Dog]

Poll: Davis in peril, Schwarzenegger shows strength

LOS ANGELES, California (CNN) --Voters in the California recall election might be poised to kick Gov. Gray Davis out and vote Republican Arnold Schwarzenegger in, according to a CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll released Sunday.

When asked how they they would vote on recalling Davis, 63 percent of probable voters said they would vote yes, compared with 35 percent who would vote no.

In a separate vote to choose a replacement for Davis, Schwarzenegger was the choice of 40 percent of respondents.

Democratic Lt. Gov. Cruz Bustamante was the choice for 25 percent of voters polled, Republican state Sen. Tom McClintock received 18 percent.

The poll showed Green Party candidate Peter Camejo with 5 percent and syndicated columnist and independent candidate Arianna Huffington with 2 percent of the respondents' support.

The poll of 787 registered voters has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points. It was conducted over three days from Thursday through Saturday, following Wednesday night's debate among the five leading replacement candidates. (Full story)

The poll used a model for probable voters that assumes about half of the state's voting age population will vote on Election Day.

If the poll is an indication of what will happen in the October 7 election, Schwarzenegger could win even if his remaining major Republican rival, McClintock, stays in the race.

GOP leaders have been pressuring the senator to drop out to improve Schwarzenegger's chances of beating Bustamante, the only major Democrat in the field.

Sunday's results are the first CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll numbers in the California recall campaign.

Earlier polls conducted by other organizations have shown a much closer race between Schwarzenegger and Bustamante and less support for the recall.

Schwarzenegger and Davis have been invited to debate on CNN's "Larry King Live." Davis, a Democrat who formally challenged the Republican actor-turned-politician to a debate Friday, accepted. The Schwarzenegger campaign declined. (Full story)

Davis and Schwarzenegger are not running against each other. Voters will first be asked whether Davis should be recalled. They will then pick a replacement from a list of 135 candidates, including Schwarzenegger, who would take over if Davis were removed from office.

The recall was triggered by voter anger over the state's economic and energy situation.

A recent budget agreement between Democratic and Republican legislators in Sacramento eliminated the state's $38 billion deficit through cuts and borrowing, but it created an expected shortfall of at least $8 billion for the next fiscal year.

A former candidate in the race, Rep. Darrell Issa, R-California, financed much of a successful petition campaign to allow the recall election.

[Dog]

I just posted this.......don't direct any flames in this direction..

[byteback]

You RINO piece of.... j/k The poll used a model for probable voters that assumes about half of the state's voting age population will vote on Election Day.

That seems like a high turnout to me.

[witnesstothefall]

McClintock's numbers are soaring! Boy it won't be long before he's way ahead!!! Too bad Arnold doesn't step aside and get out of the way - Tom obviously has the momentum and the love of the People behind him!

!!!

/sarcasm

[per loin]

Rational folks, (I exclude those crazed by political ideology, left or right) knew by the end of the debate that Arnie had aced it.

[John Jorsett]

McClintock's numbers are soaring! Boy it won't be long before he's way ahead!!! Too bad Arnold doesn't step aside and get out of the way - Tom obviously has the momentum and the love of the People behind him!

I love sore winners.

[HitmanLV]

One thing I notice is that the numbers for the actual recall always had the YES ahead, though by different margins. The talking heads were acting like Davis had a chance, and he has never been ahead in that poll, best as I can tell.

[John Jorsett]

That seems like a high turnout to me.

It IS high, but from what I've been hearing from the registrars who've been on talk radio lately, it's looking realistic. And polling shows some astonishingly high percentage of voters (like 94% I think I read) describe themselves as following the race 'closely'.

[John Jorsett]

There's another LA Times poll due out tomorrow. I'm wondering what they'll have to do to skew the numbers back to where they 'should' be. Add a couple hundred extra prison guards to it maybe.

[HostileTerritory]

The poll was conducted on a weekend, when all Republicans are at church, building houses for the poor, or camping with their children, while all the 'RATS are home watching Jerry Springer or sleeping off their hangovers. So clearly it must be thrown out. :p

[Rabid Dog]

Well here a thought to spice this thread up.

Arnold has gone down (42 to 40)
Bustamante has gone up (22 to 25)
Tom has gone up. (13 to 18)

Bustamante and Tom are in a statistical dead heat. I guess it is safe for people to vote for Tom.

Hope the word gets out to all those people that really agree more with Tom's philosphy than with Arnold's. Tom is electable.

Yeah!

[Rabid Dog]

This out to put your posse's knickers in a twist!

[AmericaUnited]

Davis has screwed so many Kalifornians in the pocket book badly and we all know that's one of the few things that will really piss people off and motivate them to vote.

The Davis triping the car tax has got to go down in history as one of the stupidest moves by a politician. Talk about salt in the wound!!!

[AmericaUnited]

The Davis triping = Davis tripling

[christynsoldier]

I predict that McClintock's numbers will out poll Bustmytaxes and then the FR rino conservatives will
be gagging on the fact they could have had a conservative governor to compliment Owen in CO and a conservative replacement for recalled Guinn, but voted for a Wilson backed Actor out of fear instead... and the result should
be interesting!

[EggsAckley]

This out to put your posse's knickers in a twist!

Well, we'll see about that now, won't we?

BTW, the word is "ought."

[South40]

My knickers are twisted "out" for sure.

[Rabid Dog]

I know - I was so excited by the good news I posted without reading for typos.

[EggsAckley]

"My mother always said, stupid is as stupid does."
Forrest Gump

[Tacis]

From a purely tactical point of view, is there any reason in the world why Arnold would ever agree to debate Davis prior to the recall election?