California: Last ditch effort to save Davis. Bustamante expected to withdraw

California Public Policy Foundation ^ | Oct 1, 200

[GoldwaterBooster]

The LA Times is running an expose on Arnold and six women who say he fondled them sometime over the last 35 years. Four of them won't let their names be used and one who does go on record was refuted by a studio publicity person who was there for the interview.

I am sure Arnold is no saint. But since the LA Times is the campaign newsletter for Gray Davis and Gray is known for these last-minute negative attacks, it sounds as if Bob Mulholland has been busy once again. Even Jimmy Carter pollster Pat Caddell is saying how corrupt the Davis people are. They CAN'T lose because if they have to leave office too much will be exposed. Look for at least one very dirty story on Arnold from now until Monday.

[DoughtyOne]

Luis, I don't remember seeing any figures as high as 73%. For the last six weeks there hasn't been a poll I'm aware of that went more than 60% in favor. That left anywhere from 37-45% voting no.

There has been a crossover faction of democrats voting for Schwarzenegger though. That was 17-19% in some polls and I would imagine they did vote yes.

At least that's my recall of events. Thanks for the comments.

[capitan_refugio]

Despite what the LA Times might suggest, there is just no way that Democrats are going to vote in percentages greater than their registration in this recall. Poll after poll shows that the conservatives are very motivated to recall Davis, and that the liberals are highly dis-spirited.

Don't get me wrong; McClintock has a tough road to hoe. He needs to capture about 80% of the conservative vote to win. Right now he trails Schwarzenegger in that critical group, even though they are McClintock's "natural constituency." But I contend, based on polling data probing levels of support (not the "horserace"), Schwarzenegger's conservative support is soft.

[DoughtyOne]

The most lopsided vote going against a major state issue or democrat officeholder in the last ten to fifteen years that I know of has been around 61.5%. For Bustamante to remain in the 25% range, that would mean that the republicans would pull approaching 75% between them. That just isn't big, that's a total route. I am not prepared to accept those types of numbers prior to election. The election will have to be cold an in the grave before I accept that the republicans have pulled off a 75/25 victory.

My prediction still holds that Bustamante will pull around 35%. I'll be more than happy to eat crow after the election. That's still my best guess.

[capitan_refugio]

Without Busty, they don't vote at all.

[capitan_refugio]

The DUers are going to begging plaintively for "karmic hugs" on October 8th. I don't go there, even to gloat, so keep me informed!

[FairOpinion]

"People who would vote "yes" on the recall, and vote for Bustamante, will instead vote "no" in order to avoid a sure victory by the GOP. "

==

I thought Bustamante was running on "no on recally, yes on Bustamante". Maybe hs MEChA friends would vote yes on the recall and yes on Bustamante.

[cartoonistx]

[Concerned]

FORESTER WROTE: "I wonder what kind of dirt on Arnold the LA Slimes will reveal during the last week of the campaign."

I don't know, but RATS ALWAYS come out with dirt just before an election.

[capitan_refugio]

There was a news item the other day about a County Registrar complaining how few absentee ballots had been returned. I suggest that the Republicans have held on to theirs just to see what happens.

[capitan_refugio]

I think you misread Ambrose's post.

Good luck, by the way.

[capitan_refugio]

I just don't buy into the idea that having a governor of state in your political party will help you as a presidental candidate. Did GW Bush carry Wisconsin, Michigan, or Pennsylvania in 2000?

[capitan_refugio]

It is not legal to release the results of the "early" absentee balloting until the polls close at 8:00 PM Pacific time. Apparently, it is legit to report the numbers of ballots turned in.

[capitan_refugio]

The ballot is "set in concrete" 68 days prior to the election. Whoever is on the ballot, or whose name is "written in" (if they are a qualified write-in candidate) will have their votes tallied and reported. No votes are discarded because a candidtate withdrew, died, was fouond to be not legally qualified, went to prison, etc.

[Hoverbug]

I know. I was just pointing out that ambrose had no idea how many votes anyone got in the absentee ballots already turned in.

Hb

[Lancey Howard]

If Bustamante withdraws from the race, Democrats will stay home in droves (sure, the rats will go to the polls with no candidate in the race - not), recall will pass by a landslide, 54 will pass by a landslide, and whoever gets the most votes between McClintock and Schwarzenegger will be the new governor. That's what I think will happen if Bustamante withdraws. I believe the Dems have made this calculation as well.

And so, I do not believe the Democrats will LET Bustamante withdraw.

[Nam Vet]

"Like it or not, personality and persuasiveness are part of leadership. "

Is voting for a lib 'prostitute who promises to balance a checkbook' your definition of Conservative? You are either Conservative or not. Believe me, we know when we have to bend a little .... but I refuse to bend over and pull my drawers down too! With all due respect, I'm NOT inferring you are blonde!

Nam Vet

[EternalVigilance]

Guess we'll see.

But you and I definitely agree on what will happen if he does withdraw.

As for me, I'll keep praying.

[ambrose]

Off topic:

but what do you think of the LA Times "bombshell"? I think the idea that Arnold is a womanizer has been pretty much taken into account in people's voting decisions already.

[capitan_refugio]

And now we know why! ;^)