I've been trying to read through all of the other threads linked to this one--I don't know if I've missed it somewhere, but do we know if Wilson has any connections to the McGovern group before Plame started working with Alan Foley?
If not, I think that explains a lot of his changing opinions. He spent his career on African issues, suddenly he lists a specific interest in Palestinian issues? And starts working for the Saudis?
This all started to get Cheney, not Rove. They'll take Rove as the consolation prize. Cheney and his neocons are the specific target of the McGovern group because they are very pro-Palestinian.
One of the basic questions is why Wilson was sent on the Niger trip to begin with. I honestly suspect that it began legitimately as a fact-finding mission. I don't think the plot was hatched at that time. That's why he came back and in his debriefing talked about the attempts and his report supported what was said in the SOTU.
From there, it could be either that the plot was hatched with the McGovern group, or that Wilson's own ego led him to become very vocal to his McGovern friends about his trip and how that's not what he found, blah, blah, blah. And the McGovern group prodded him to start speaking out and making waves, which is what they had begun to do as well on their own. Originally I thought more the former theory, but as Wilson's ego has been revealed I'm leaning more toward the latter. I think he became friendly with that circle through his wife and caught up in the PR campaign against Cheney that they had began via anonymous sourcing to reporters. I think they were using him and I think he also burned them--they definitely seem to have distanced themselves from him since then.
That's the theory that makes the most sense to me right now, but the other ideas at the end of this thread are pretty interesting, too, so I definitely want to look into those some more.
The earliest I'm aware of Wilson being in contact with McGovern is June 2003 when they spoke jointly at a lecture to the Education for Peace in Iraq Center (EPIC). I don't know if they had any contact before that. Wilson first seems to have started working with left-wing antiwar forces between June 2002 (when he joined former ambassador to Morocco Marc Ginsberg's Alliance for American Leadership--Ginsberg like Wilson having a background in advising on Middle Eastern investments) and October 2002 (when he wrote his first article on the Iraq debate for the San Jose Mercury); McGovern's Veterans Intelligence Professionals for Sanity (VIPS) was formed in January 2003, and I don't know what he was doing before that or if it crossed Wilson's path. But in relation to the Palestinian angle, Wilson may have developed his views on Palestinian-Israeli issues during the 1988-1997 period when his assignments included Iraq and political advisor to the United States European Command in Germany, where he helped provide support to US/UK/Turkish operations in northern Iraq. During these assignments Wilson developed relationships with Turkish intelligence, military, and business figures who had negative views on Israel and its alleged influence on US Middle Eastern policy. Wilson and Turkish General Cevik Bir expressed similar views on Iraq when they spoke together at events held by the American-Turkish Council (ATC). It seems likely this context also shaped Wilson's views on Israel and Palestine, so his interest in this area may have predated his relationship with McGovern.
BTW thanks for the comments on the definition of undercover status above--useful clarification.