Is the Party Establishment Right About the Recall?

Human Events ^ | Posted Oct 3, 2003 | Chris Field

[Vindiciae Contra TyrannoSCOTUS]

I've been truly flabbergasted over the last several weeks as I've watched the Republican Party establishment back Arnold Schwarzenegger in the California recall -- not, necessarily, because they shouldn't, but because they have been willing to do it so vigorously despite everything they know about him. Almost immediately upon his announcement on the "Tonight Show" that he would be a candidate to replace Gray Davis, GOP leaders began lining up behind him.

Though there is a candidate in the race who is known to be a solid conservative -- State Sen. Tom McClintock -- Arnold was (and, still is) the seemingly logical pick, based, apparently, on his notoriety and the "fact" that a conservative cannot win in California.

GOP leaders nationwide have been calling on McClintock to get out of the race precisely because they feel that McClintock's conservatism and lesser-known name will cause him to get just enough votes to keep Arnold from winning but not enough to beat Lt. Gov. Cruz Bustamante.

But are these reasons which Arnold supporters tout actually true?

First, there is the name recognition issue. Certainly Schwarzenegger has a leg up on all the other candidates based merely on his celebrity status. However, a USA Today/CNN/Gallup Poll released earlier this week shows that McClintock is not exactly unknown, nor is he as negatively viewed as either Schwarzenegger or Bustamante. Consider the following results of a poll of probable voters:

Arnold Schwarzenegger
Favorable: 63
Unfavorable: 30
Never Heard Of: 0
No Opinion: 7

Tom McClintock
Favorable: 62
Unfavorable: 20
Never Heard Of: 4
No Opinion: 14

Cruz Bustamante
Favorable: 37
Unfavorable: 54
Never Heard Of: 3
No Opinion: 6

The second issue is the whole notion that McClintock cannot beat Bustamante because California will not elect a conservative. So, since only the Terminator can beat Bustamante, the Arnold camp is calling on McClintock to back out in order to avoid splitting the vote. But looking at the following results from the same USA Today Poll of probable voters, it appears that McClintock could make a very similar argument back to Schwarzenegger.

If the choice were between Cruz Bustamante, the Democrat and Arnold Schwarzenegger, the Republican, who would you be more likely to vote for: Cruz Bustamante or Arnold Schwarzenegger?

Bustamante: 36
Schwarzenegger: 58

If the choice were between Cruz Bustamante, the Democrat and Tom McClintock, the Republican, who would you be more likely to vote for: Cruz Bustamante or Tom McClintock?

Bustamante: 37
McClintock: 56

My question now is not really whether Arnold should be supported by the GOP. Rather, I wonder if the GOP jumped behind Schwarzenegger too quickly and now are following as a result of blind ambition.

I also wonder why the Republican establishment is essentially ignoring these poll results. Is it because they have realized that maybe they were wrong about McClintock's chances, and, more importantly, about the possibilities of conservatism succeeding in a California election?

[Vindiciae Contra TyrannoSCOTUS]

Rather, I wonder if the GOP jumped behind Schwarzenegger too quickly and now are following as a result of blind ambition.
Until now, says a report by Agence France-Presse, the conventional view was that obsessive celebrity worship was limited to a tiny fraction of the population. The study, however, found there is a "sliding scale" between those who follow stars for fun and those who are seriously pathological.WorldNetDaily: Research: 1/3 of us worship celebrities

 

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California Republican Assembly

Tom McClintock for Governor

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[milan]

CNN put this poll out...it must be true.

[Recourse]

Of course they were right to back Arnold. McClintock's support has not moved above 15% (of the pro-recall voters) in weeks. Arnold has attracted independents. You cannot win a statewide race without independents, just as you cannot win the Presidency without independent voters.

Arnold will win despite the pathetic attempts of Davis & the LA Times. None of the "dirt" is new or particularly damaging.

Unfortunately for McClintock, his refusal to drop out in support of Arnold will likely mean his career in state politics will shortly come to an end. His new district is hardly the conservative bastion it once was, and the GOP leadership in California will not back such a divisive candidate.

[Vindiciae Contra TyrannoSCOTUS]

The milan poll differs by...?

[Vindiciae Contra TyrannoSCOTUS]

McClintock, his refusal to drop out in support of Arnold will likely mean his career in state politics will shortly come to an end

Secede from the Union and unite with Mexico.

[11th Earl of Mar]

The poll numbers with McClintock beating Beastie-boy are nonsense.

They fail to take into accout THE FRONTRUNNER in the election.

Asking Arnold to step aside for McClintock is like Alan Keyes asking George W. Bush to step aside 'so a real conservative could win.'

[BIGZ]

If you cross the street in the crosswalk and a car runs you over, you are right but you are DEAD right. Arnold is a sure winner, McClintock is not. This an election we can't lose.

In any event it is time to go with non polititions as our Constitutional Founders designed it. Polititions and lawyers are proof that homosexual relations beget children.

[Recourse]

Exactly.

[Dan from Michigan]

The establishment actually OPPOSED the recall at first....

[Dan from Michigan]

The establishment hated his guts anyway, so what else is new.

[EternalVigilance]

His new district is hardly the conservative bastion it once was, and the GOP leadership in California will not back such a divisive candidate.

Divisive = Unwilling to back a Leftist candidate.

You folks have your priorities all screwed up.

Keep running Leftists, and you'll see just how divisive things get. You ain't seen nothing yet.

[EternalVigilance]

The establishment actually OPPOSED the recall at first....

You noticed that too, eh?

[EternalVigilance]

Unfortunately for McClintock, his refusal to drop out in support of Arnold will likely mean his career in state politics will shortly come to an end.

I'll bet a whole bunch of 'Republican Party Leaders' lose their seats long before Tom McClintock does.

[11th Earl of Mar]

I think it was very smart for the GOP to oppose the recall.

The more the public saw the recall as 'the will of the people' and less like 'Republican dirty pool' the better its chances of gaining steam.

[Vindiciae Contra TyrannoSCOTUS]

Asking Arnold to step aside for McClintock is like Alan Keyes asking George W. Bush to step aside 'so a real conservative could win.'

SCALE OF 0-10 with:

0 = Gray Davis, Bustamoron, Clintons

10 = Any candidate who supports and attempts to achieve the goals of Free Republic

Schwartzenegger is no better than a 3.

McClintock is at least an 8.

If Schwartzenegger was at least a 6, and McClintock couldn't win, I'd vote for Schwartzenegger.

Schwartzenegger is Davis/Bustamoron LITE.

===============================================

Bush is a 6.7 , while Keyes was a 10.

Gore was -5

[Southflanknorthpawsis]

[11th Earl of Mar]

If Schwartzenegger was at least a 6, and McClintock couldn't win, I'd vote for Schwartzenegger.

I figure Arnold is a 4 or 5. And since McClintock can't win, I would vote for the Terminator.

[Vindiciae Contra TyrannoSCOTUS]

Arnold is a sure winner, McClintock is not. This an election we can't lose.

In any event it is time to go with non polititions as our Constitutional Founders designed it.

You need to read the Constiution and then read Arnold.

[EternalVigilance]

I think it was very smart for the GOP to oppose the recall. The more the public saw the recall as 'the will of the people' and less like 'Republican dirty pool' the better its chances of gaining steam.

Using your reasoning, they shouldn't have endorsed Schwarzenegger, then. The only possible reason to do so was to sabotage McClintock.