California: Gentlemen, start your shredders! Plus: Got Polls?

I assume the editors assigned some people a few years ago when the incidents occurred, and the stories couldn't be proven on the record. But didn't the Times have an obligation to go back and reinvestigate, given their D-Day like assault on past Schwarzengropings? Applying the same sourcing standards they applied to Schwarzenegger? Maybe people who weren't willing to talk before changed their minds.... P.P.S.: I'd argue that editor John Carroll should also tell us if he did try to check out the Davis violence story and couldn't. But editors don't discuss the stories that haven't checked out for fear of unfairness, you say? Not when it comes to Schwarzenegger--Carroll freely referred to uncorroborated examples of groping to justify his paper's coverage:

1) Just-released results from the intriguing Knowledge Networks poll, which attempts to replicate the actual ballot facing voters, show the recall down only slightly (with 59 percent still in favor, 41 against), and Schwarzenegger's lead over Bustamante increasing slightly, to 43-30. ... Democrats have been gradually coming home to the anti-recall position, however--contrary to what the NYT suggests ... The poll was take from 9/26 to 10/4, straddling the big LAT grope story. "Interviews collected since the Oct. 2 revelations do not show a decrease in support for the recall initiative," according to the poll's press release. ...

2) The Mercury News/NBC 11/Knight-Ridder poll has the recall winning 54-41, but the fraction of people who say they "definitely" would vote for it fell over the course of the past week. Update: Alert reader R.M. notes that the fraction who say they "definitely" will vote against it also fell over the same period, though the trend is not as pronounced. ... More: The Contra Costa Times' far superior report on the same poll catches that nuance, and also a) the crucial role of new voters (the bigger the turnout, the better for Arnold) and b) the poll's findings that, contrary to what kf suggests below, the recall actually does worse if voters think Bustamante will win. They don't seem to want him! "By almost every measure, the Bustamante candidacy has been a bust." writes Daniel Borenstein. .... 1:59 P.M.

Kf has just received a download of campaign buzz from knowledgeable sources. The upshot: 1) Republicans are kidding themselves if they think the continuing Groping and Nazi stories aren't hurting Schwarzenegger. His campaign is certainly behaving as if they are, as Weintraub reports. 2) Both races are tightening, but--as RealClearPolitics predicted long ago--Democrats have a better chance at beating the recall in the initial yes/no vote than Cruz Bustamante has of beating Schwarzenegger in the second "replacement" contest. Even on the recall, everything must break the Dems way for Davis to survive. 3) Nobody really believes the polling claims of either camp (Davis' claims the recall race is within a couple of points). There is supposedly a Field poll in the field, but polls taken over a weekend are notoriously unreliable. ....

P.S.: We need more polls! An accurate last-minute poll would be very helpful to recall voters, who must make strategic decisions that depend on whether they think Schwarzenegger is safely ahead. If Schwarzenegger's lead is shrinking, accurate last-minute polls would probably help him--by encouraging Democrats to recall Davis in the hopes of getting Bustamante, and encouraging McClintock voters to reluctantly switch and bolster Schwarzenegger. But will there be enough prominently-played post-grope polls to achieve this effect? ... Update: Here's one. ... 1:30 A.M.

oops, I aparently didn't get the shredder story included. Here it (and another one) is:

When is a late hit a late hit? What's the difference between the "Groping" and "Nazi" stories?
Answer: 1)The Groping story would have had lasting impact on the race even if it had been published a month before election day. Individual 'Arnold-groped-me' stories might be true or untrue--here's today's harvest--but enough are certainly true to make Schwarzenegger's cruelty and piggishness in the recent past something voters should and would want to consider. The L.A. Times was right to publish them. Smoke, fire. (True, if the stories had come out earlier, that might have given Schwarzenegger more time to respond--but it would have deprived him of the "late hit" defense, as well as at least some of the 2 million absentee ballots already cast.)
2) The Nazi story seems flimsy by comparison. It's a shaky quote from decades ago, taken out of context, that sounds more scandalous than it really is. If it had come out two weeks ago, it would almost certainly have collapsed or faded into near-insignificance by Election Day. Its power derives almost entirely from Schwarzenegger's inability to put it into perspective in the time remaining before the vote. Which is why at least one Democratic activist I know, who supports Davis and promotes the groping story vigorously, regards the Nazi story as an embarrassing late smear, the triumph of last-minute Mulhhollandism (named after the notorious California Democratic Party button man Bob Mulholland, whom I once helped out in what is not my finest moment). ... 1:14 A.M.
Gentlemen, Start Your Shredders: Here's a sentence buried in a NYT story--on Gov. Gray Davis' last-minute appointments--that might be news on Monday:

Plan B also has a strong pragmatic component. A state official with knowledge of the situation said the governor's office recently put in an order to the state archives for storage boxes, along with a list of approved vendors for shredding documents.

This could be wholly innocent. Or not! But if Schwarzenegger consultant Mike Murphy can't do something with it--e.g. seeking a showcase Temporary Restraining Order to prevent Davis from shredding state documents--he doesn't deserve his reputation. ... 1:14 P.M.

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