[Uncle Hal]

Everything else remaining equal, if this poll is correct then Arnold would get more votes than no on the recall would receive. In other words Arnold would out poll Gray. This would be great news. However I suspect a lot of the no on recall voters will not vote for a recall candidate.

[alwaysconservative]

One other poll that asked the question showed that about 8% of the people voting no on the recall would NOT vote for a replacement candidate. That means that on the replacement ballot, the total is somewhere around 92%. Most likely, that could breakdown to 45% Arnold, 30% Cruz, 15% Tom, and 2% for "others". BUT, what if it is 38% Arnold (last-minute smears), 38% Cruz (usual Dem vote fraud), and 16% Tom? No matter how you slice it, Tom's voters have to think hard about who they really want in the governor's office after Gray is out.

[Congressman Billybob]

You raise an interesting point. I'm on record six weeks ago in predicting that Schwarzenegger who's running against 134 other candidates will outpoll Davis who's running against himself. But I was more specific than that.

There WILL be a "drop-off" between the total valid votes cast on the recall question, to the total valid votes cast to replace Davis. I expect the drop-off to be around 10%. So it is possible that Davis will receive more votes "for" him, i.e. not to recall him, than Schwarzenegger receives to be the new Governor.

But I predicted, and stand by that, that Schwarzenegger will receive a greater percentage of the replacement vote, than Davis receives of the recall vote. And I expect both parts of the ballot -- to recall and then to replace -- to be won by a landslide, i.e. 10% or more.

The results of this election will be crystal clear even before the absentee ballots have all been counted. The reason is that absentee ballots are "more Republican" than the live votes cast at the polls. Therefore, the counting of the absentees will only extend the margin by which Davis loses, and Schwarzenegger wins.

Though the official declaration of the results may take a few days (during which Davis and his chronies apparently intend to shred documents), the actual outcome will be known by about 9:30 pm Pacific. It could be known earlier, if the exit polls which will be taken during the day and embargoed, manage to leak out onto the Internet.

Congressman Billybob

Latest column, "Two Degrees of Separation and a Double Sawbuck," discussion thread on FR. IF YOU WANT A FREEPER IN CONGRESS, CLICK HERE.