Replies

Hollywood will come under severe financial pressure due to this movie. Families will want to watch this movie many times almost ritualistically. It will replace new movies and DVD rentals (for a significant market segment) because it will be watched so many times. Hollywood will be in turmoil while they try to imitate it and compete for our attention. Movie trailers and television commercials will come under its sway first, while movie studios and television series will struggle to adapt. Foreign films with subtitles will also flourish for a while.

Sorry, but I think you are way way off base.

The film will do very very well - 2800 theaters and plenty of tickets sold. It will draw a slightly older crowd to the movies, but it won't have much traction with 13-25 year olds who are the biggest moviegoers. That being said, it will still probably set a record for an opening day and weekend for February.

Hollywood won't undergo severe financial pressure because of the film, though they probably should. The diet will still be for largely meritless junky films for the forseeable future. The Passion cost only 25 million to make and will probably make 8-10x that in theaters alone, and it will do very well on home video. The lesson for Hollywood is to make cheaper films, not to make more moral films. The suits will miss both of those lessons, though, for sure.

Families watching the movie ritualistically? No - it's too violent for that, sorry. It will have no or only marginal impact on the rental market, which is huge. Few filmmakers will imitate this film - done entirely in an ancient language with subtitles, it won't be imitated much.

Indeed, you will see several weeks of denial over the film's success. 'Experts' saying that the film is doing well only because religious fanatics are going in droves (of course, movies where degenerates go in droves are seen as sheik and dandy!).

When all the money is counted, I expect this film to make around $ 200-250 million or so internationally, good but it won't be good enough to be the #1 film of the year (the early best bet for that will be Spider-Man 2, opening July 4th weekend - remember that Spider-Man 1 was the movie to reach 100 million the fastest [3 days], to reach $ 200 million the fastest [9 days], and to reach $ 300 million the fastest [22 days] - all domestic figures, not international figures. I expect SM2 to beat all those records, somehow.)

The Passion won't do nearly as well, though will present a much better return on investment to the producers. It will probably get some folks thinking more seriously about their religion, which is a good thing.