In the Last election the White Evang. was 79%/20% r Romney/Obama, versus 59%/40% for Romney/Obama, among White Cath. (http://www.pewforum.org/Politics-and-Elections/How-the-Faithful-Voted-2012-Preliminary-Exit-Poll-Analysis.aspx)
The count was 21%/75% for Romney/Obama among Latin Cath., close to the 73% Pew had forecast Oct 18, and while i found no figures yet on how Latin evangs voted, a little over two weeks previous Pew found that 50% preferred Obama, while 39% supported Romney. (http://www.pewforum.org/Race/Latinos-Religion-and-Campaign-2012.aspx#utm_source=footer&utm_medium=internal&utm_campaign=PPFooter)
And note that this minority groups that carried President Obama to victory yesterday by giving him 80% [overall] of their votes are on track to become a majority of the nation’s population by 2050, according to projections by the Pew Research Center.
Yet Latino Evangelicals are 50% more likely than those who are Catholics to identify with the Republican Party, and are significantly more conservative than Catholics on social issues, foreign policy issues and even in their attitudes toward the plight of the poor. http://pewforum.org/surveys/hispanic
As far as black Catholics, there are so few and inconsequential that i could not find any stats on their vote in the last election, nor have i seen any strictly for black evangelical, but as the so-called black Prot vote was 5%/95% Romney/Obama then you stand your best chance of getting one class, if minimal, that would best an evangelical class.
As for attendance, as noted, even Catholics at 57 percent for Romney could only tie all Prots in votes for Romney, which was behind evangelicals.
Also, exit polls in 2008 reported that weekly churchgoing Catholics voted for John McCain over Barack Obama, by just 50 percent to 49 percent. Weekly Protestant church attendees voted for McCain over Barack Obama 66 to 32 percent. http://www.catholicnewsagency.com/news/churchgoing_catholics_chose_mccain_over_obama/
In addition, 34% of weekly Mass attending Catholics are Democrats, and an additional 19% are not affiliated with a party but lean toward the Democrats (53% identifying or leaning as Democrats). 28% of weekly attenders are Republicans and an additional 17% lean toward being a Republican (43 percent identifying or leaning as Republicans). Thus Democrats have a 10% point edge among weekly attendees, Catholics who attend Mass less than weekly are even more likely to be a Democrat rather than a Republican. http://cara.georgetown.edu/NewsandPress/PressReleases/pr061808.pdf
Too tired now to look more at past elections, but will try tomorrow, God willing.
thanks very much.
Have you seen anything less than about 75%/25% O/R for combined latino, prot/cath? If not and this is true, the latino non-cath would have to be near zero if they’re ratio was 50/50 or more, which would make the 53% of pew questionable. If Latino Evangelicals are more likely GOP, the figures do not indicate they voted this way.
37% of Catholics are Asian, Black or Hispanic; 17% for Evangelical Protestants.
As for blacks being inconsequential, they are 13.4% of the population compared to 16.4% for Hispanics.
I still the correlation of race being stronger than church/denomination: if we know whether a given congregation is white or non-white we can more consistently predict their vote than if we know the church/denomination.