Posted on 11/28/2012 3:46:35 PM PST by NYer
For over seventy years, white blue-collar Catholics who have lived and worked in America’s once great industrial states were the voting bloc that provided the margins of victory for Franklin Roosevelt, Truman, Kennedy, Johnson, Nixon, Reagan, and the two Bushes. The 2012 election results, however, indicate these Catholics no longer have that kind of clout at the ballot box.
Why? First of all, they are an aging group whose numbers are declining every year. About 650 Catholic World War II and Korean War veterans die every day. That translates into 950,000 in the last four years. Add spouses and the number may easily have hit 2 million.
Next, the once solid Catholic vote is fractured beyond repair. Millions of grandchildren and great grandchildren of those aging Catholics have abandoned their faith and embraced secularism. Fifty-seven percent of white cafeteria Catholics cast their ballots for Obama in 2012. And equal percentage of practicing Catholics voted for Romney.
Finally, in recent years a subset of blue-collar Catholics have dropped out of the work force for no apparent reason (Charles Murray examines this phenomena in Coming Apart: The State of White America). Some live with their folks, collect unemployment benefits, and occasionally grab “off the books” jobs. They refuse to become responsible adults and soak up a living from poverty programs. These Catholics typically either don’t vote or support big government candidates.
For all these reasons, plus the fact that Obama’s campaign devoted huge resources to identifying and turning out its base (and convinced former supporters to sit out the election – 8.3 million 2008 white voters did not cast a ballot this year), Romney lost all the Rust Belt states with large Catholic populations:
Pennsylvania (35 percent Catholic) – This was one to watch in 2012 because of its large white Catholic population (only 4 percent are Hispanic) and because it has the fourth oldest population in the nation. As William Galston of the Brookings Institute predicted last June: “Obama got 47 percent of the white Catholic vote in 2008; right now he has 37 percent. . .potentially a big deal in the Midwest. . . .despite the fact that Obama is now ahead in Pennsylvania, I don’t see how he carries Pennsylvania with white Catholic support at that level.”
In November, Romney received 50 percent of generic Catholic vote, down 2 percent from McCain’s 2008 percentage. White Catholics broke 56-44 percent for Romney. Obama carried nine of the top twenty Catholic counties, down two from 2008. But, in those counties, Romney’s total votes, vis–à–vis McCain’s, were down 40,192 (-2.6 percent).
|
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Obama
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Romney
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Philadelphia
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-6.5%
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-21.9%
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Alleghany
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-6.7%
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-4.7%
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Montgomery
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-10.1%
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-2.3%
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Delaware
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-7.8%
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-8.6%
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Bucks
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-11.1%
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+3.3%
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Chester
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-10.9%
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+7.8%
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Michigan (29 percent Catholic) – In his home state, Romney received 55 percent of the generic Catholic vote and 55 percent of white Catholics. He carried 12 of the top 20 Catholic counties. Four years earlier McCain received 46 percent and 51 percent respectively, and carried only 5 of the top Catholic counties. Obama’s total votes in those counties were down 69,339 votes (-8.3 percent) while Romney’s were up 29,635 votes (+4.45 percent). Nevertheless, this small shift was not nearly enough to put Romney over the top
Romney lost Michigan because he did not make serious inroads in densely populated Catholic counties. One-time Reagan Democrats in bellwether McComb County stuck with Obama giving him 52 percent of their votes. In 2008 Obama received 53 percent. The Obama campaign’s message that Romney was a plutocrat who would shut down Michigan’s automobile industry worked.
Ohio (26 percent Catholic) – This must-win state went for Obama, 50.9 percent versus 49 percent for Romney.
Romney’s Catholic percentages improved over McCain’s by about 3 percent, but the total number of Catholics who went to the polls was down in 15 key counties, declining 3.6 percent (28,321 votes) compared to McCain. Meanwhile, Obama easily carried and maintained his margins in the densely populated heavily Catholic counties of Cuyahoga and Hamilton.
The Obama campaign convinced disenchanted white blue-collar Catholics to stay home on Election Day and while the black vote was down 1 million nationally their turnout in Ohio increased by 178,000.
Wisconsin (32 percent Catholic) – Thanks to favorite son Paul Ryan, this was the only Rust Belt state in which voter turnout increased. Total votes cast in 2012 were up 86,092 (+2.68 percent) over 2008. Obama went down 2.9 percent and Romney up 11.6 percent.
Romney carried 56 percent of the generic Catholic vote and 57 percent of white Catholics (McCain got 53 percent and 52 percent, respectively). The Romney ticket also squeaked by in Ryan’s congressional district with 51 percent. (McCain, 48 percent).
Romney increased his vote totals over McCain’s in all but two top Catholic counties. He won 24 (versus 9 for McCain), but his vote total was only 63,266 out of 2.4 million cast. Romney’s gains were offset by Obama’s gains in the two most populated Catholic counties, Dane (Madison) and Milwaukee. The Obama campaign focused on its base and turned out more supporters than in 2008. Obama carried Wisconsin with 53 percent (56 percent in 2008).
Romney needed at least two of the states described here to win. He lost them all because, in my judgment, practicing Catholic voters were not persuaded to come out in force.
Romney’s numbers crunchers did not understand the importance of practicing Catholics in tightly contested Rust Belt states and did not effectively cultivate them. They were also afraid to advertise Romney’s anti-abortion stand and opposition to same-sex marriage to energize these Catholics. The Obama campaign exploited these errors. And let’s not forget the American bishops. Most of them failed to mobilize Catholics over religious liberty on Election Day.
Thus ends a once great force in America’s electoral politics: white Catholic voters. What a pity.
I understand fully well what you’re talking about but you forgot to mention the many American volunteers who fought on the communist side in Spain. No American volunteers on the opposing side as far as I know.
And talking about persecution of the Church — don’t think it can’t happen in the US. How many American “Catholics” voted for Obama whose government may just start to question the Church’s rights here at home. And should a persecution ensue, we can thank these American catholic voters for making it happen.
“you forgot to mention the many American volunteers who fought on the communist side in Spain. No American volunteers on the opposing side as far as I know.”
I did mention the American volunteers; a large number of them were Bolsheviks who weren’t even born Christian. Franco’s side had volunteers from Ireland, who described their fighting as “faith in action”.
As for Obama persecuting the Church, that has already started with ObamaCare (besides the regular, daily run-of-the-mill attacks on Christianity by our leftist media). In my state (NJ), the government is successfully eliminating the Church from healthcare (by requiring treatment for uninsured, then reducing reimbursement for such required treatments) and education (by imposing such high education taxes for the public schools that private education is available to a small number of wealthy people). My diocese has already gotten out of the hospital business, and is steadily withdrawing from the education business (several schools closing annually).
I have no misconceptions about where faith stands with the leftists and their puppet Obama.
“The Catholic vote is not going anywhere, it is returning to it’s historical place, a permanently democratic vote”
BS! Years ago Catholics voted overwhelmingly for democrats because ABORTION WAS NOT AN ISSUE. Sodomite “marriage” didn’t exist. All Catholics were pro-life back then. Democrats were as much pro-life as republicans. JFK was pro-life, LBJ was pro-life, Jimmy Carter was pro-life. The list goes on.
Church-going Catholics vote for the pro-life candidate. Heathens that never go to church, but still call themselves “Catholic” vote for the pagan candidate. This is repeated in all faiths. Makes no difference if you are Catholic, Protestant, Muslim, Lutheran. If you take your faith seriously you don’t vote for some heathen that believes in killing children and sodomite “marriage”. It’s time that the Roman Catholic Church put a copyright on the word Catholic. If not, these heathens will continue to embarrass REAL CATHOLICS, and the liberal media will continue to try and classify them as normal Catholic voters. The media hates anything to do with Christianity.
The Catholic vote is not going anywhere, it is returning to it’s historical place, a permanently democratic vote.
1972, 1980, 1984, 1988, 2004, the times when Catholics broke away from the democrat party.
You need to worry about those 30 or so million black evangelicals that voted for brother Obummer. That’s not about to change. The most reliable pro-death voting block in the country is black evangelicals, most of them being Southern Baptists.
No one can explain blacks, not even in voting, it appears that Catholic, and Protestant, and atheist, and Jewish, and Muslim blacks all vote the same.
Hispanics are a different story, we all know how Hispanics who are members of the Catholic church, and Hispanic atheists vote, but Hispanics who are Christians, but do not belong to the Catholic denomination, are in play, in fact in 2004, they voted republican by 56%, and in 2008, 48% republican, we have a chance of winning them to pro-life, republican voting.
Like I told you before, the 59% of white Catholics that voted for Romney make up more votes than 100% of the second largest Christian demonination, the Southern Baptists, that voted for Romney. Anyone that calls themselves Catholic and votes for pro-abortion candidates have forfeited the right to call themselves Catholic and should not be counted as such. The Catholic, UNLIKE protestant churches, does not let you pick and choose what moral issues you will follow. You can not be a Catholic and vote for pro-death politicians. It’s as simple as that. This is something the liberal media (who hates the Catholic Church) will never tell anyone when discussing how much of the “catholic” vote the pro-death Obama got. All this is contained in the Catechism of the Catholic Church. The Catholic Church has rules to live by if you want to be considered a Catholic. No other Christian faith does. It’s all left up the individual. In these faiths doctrine is set by a show hands. Doctrine in the Catholic Church is determined by the Word of God. There is no black and white. Only truth, and the truth is not subjective.
Yeah, for the first and only time in history, the white people that belong to the Catholic denomination, voted that high for the pro-life republican, but so what?
Unfortunately, the Catholic denomination is a denomination, not a race, all Catholics are members of the same denomination, a denomination that has almost always been loyal to the democrats, and still are, and forever will be.
incorrect -- read the votes for Ronald Reagan.
Also, the Democrats until the 70s were pretty much pro-life.
No.
59% is the record.
For the first and only time in history, the white people that belong to the Catholic denomination, voted that high for the pro-life republican.
Unfortunately, the Catholic denomination is a denomination, not a race, all Catholics are members of the same denomination, a denomination that has almost always been loyal to the democrats, and still are, and forever will be.
If your read post 39, then you should know to quit calling me a Southern Baptist, I’m not.
America’s second largest denomination, is also it’s most pro-life though, with 80% of them voting republican in 2008, and probably the same this time.
A pro-lifer would be very pleased with that, but Southern Baptists catch it from all sides, even some supposedly pro-life people from pro-abortion denominations, jump on them for not being perfect.
Oh so what. Meeting a head of state is not the same thing as endorsing.
oh, so then how many of your denomination voted for the dims?
the 20% of Southern Baptists who voted Dim, i would bet are from the North-East.
One can't blame all dims for the 20% who voted for dims, neither can one blame other religious groups
so the Hispanics who belong to denominations still voted 52% for Obama. Hispanics belonging to the Church voted 70% -- that's bad, and yet 52% ain't quite that significantly better.
Also, these statistics ignores the areas where the Hispanics voted D
Been interesting exchanging thoughts with you. I can tell you are searching in your faith quest. Study the Catholic faith and you will see that all roads lead to Rome. One day I am certain you see the light and become Catholic. It’s not easy being Catholic, we are persecuted daily, but God said we would be. Catholicism (I mean believing Catholics) is not for wimps and you would make a fine Catholic. Check it out and God bless you on your journey.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-religion/1873356/posts
The Hispanics who belonged the Catholic denomination are a consistent over 70% pro-abortion vote for the democrats, and Hispanics who belong to one of the non-Catholic denominations, are close to a 50/50 vote, for instance 56% pro-life GOP in 2004 and 48% pro-life GOP in 2008.
Pro-lifers can gain hope from these numbers, and see that Catholic immigration is not necessarily the end of America and of conservatism.
This thread is about voting, in a democracy, the vote will win or lose for us and as we see, we now learn something to work with in regards to Hispanic immigrants, they can be led to voting pro-life.
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