I have to agree with you based on the Church’s track record in Europe. Virtually every country over there provides government paid contraception and abortions. And rarely do you hear the Church make a peep about it.
Obama’s move is intended soley to provide a legal fiction fig leaf so that John Roberts can find this constitutional.
I don't expect the Catholic Church in the US to fight if the US government itself starts directly providing free birth control, but I am optimistic that Church will not allow its churches and schools — forget most of the Catholic colleges, which the Church cannot control — to be the means by which women get birth control.
Chaput alone will never cave on this issue. As bad as things are — and I concede they are very bad — there will be Catholic bishops who will go down with the ship before they capitulate on this issue.
That's a critical difference. "Government paid" and "employer paid" aren't the same thing.