OK, speculations are being flung around by the pinch, the dash and the bucket, so I'll add mine to the soup: From the moment he was elected, Pope Benedict made it clear that he hadn't wanted to be Pope: he said that the announcement felt "like a guillotine blade coming down."
Knowing that at his age he'd only have a few years, and knowing all the sotto-voce skulduggery that goes on in any big institution, especially the Roman Curia, I'm betting he has been planning for his successor from Day One back in April 2005.
He's a patient man. He's planned 15 moves ahead, putting the chess pieces in place. Now, announcing RIGHT before Lent, he's basically forcing the Cardinals to wrap it up quick, because none of them wants to be out of their Diocese for the whole Holy Season, and certainly not for Easter.
Plus, with Benedict still being alive, they can each of them come in to consult with him, personally, if they want, about his successor. And he can undermine the plotters (yes, there are plotters, too: people who side with the Enemy.) This careful planning--- I hope --- is the long-term architecture of the thing. I think Benedict's moves are wise, Spirit-guided, brilliant.
Then, Benedict is going to retire to a life of intense prayer in a monastic setting.
Something big coming.
Really big.
Good Christian friends, good people: pray, pray. pray.
Interesting analysis. When I heard that the date was so close, before Easter, my thought was, “Terminal diagnosis with *very* short time frame.” However, reading others’ thoughts has led me to think that is less likely than many other possibilities.