Survivor: Sistine Chapel! Days 6 through 9 (in that order)

adeiinthelife ^ | February 21, 2013 | Mark Moorhead

[NYer]

Day six's list of cardinal electors is as follows:

PIACENZA Mauro [English, Italian]
POLETTO Severino [English, Italian] 
POLICARPO José da CRUZ [English, Italian] 
PULJIĆ Vinko [English, Italian]

RAÏ Béchara Boutros, O.M.M.  [English, Italian]
RAVASI Gianfranco [English, Italian]
RE Giovanni Battista [English, Italian]
RICARD Jean-Pierre [English, Italian] 
RIGALI Justin Francis [English, Italian] 
RIVERA CARRERA Norberto [English, Italian]
ROBLES ORTEGA Francisco [English, Italian]
RODÉ Franc, C.M. [English, Italian] 
RODRÍGUEZ MARADIAGA Oscar Andrés, S.D.B. [English, Italian]
ROMEO Paolo [English, Italian]
ROUCO VARELA Antonio María [English, Italian]

Eliminated due to being outside the age of 60-71:

POLETTO Severino
POLICARPO José da CRUZ
RAÏ Béchara Boutros, O.M.M.
RE Giovanni Battista
RIGALI Justin Francis
RODÉ Franc, C.M.
ROMEO Paolo
ROUCO VARELA Antonio María

Survivors from day six (7 of 15):

PIACENZA Mauro
PULJIĆ Vinko
RAVASI Gianfranco
RICARD Jean-Pierre
RIVERA CARRERA Norberto
ROBLES ORTEGA Francisco
RODRÍGUEZ MARADIAGA Oscar Andrés, S.D.B.

Total Survivors thus far (36 of 90):

ALENCHERRY George
AVIZ João BRAZ de
BARBARIN Philippe
BERTELLO Giuseppe

BETORI Giuseppe
BOZANIĆ Josip
BURKE Raymond Leo
CALCAGNO Domenico
CAÑIZARES LLOVERA Antonio
CIPRIANI THORNE Juan Luis
COLLINS Thomas Christopher
COMASTRI Angelo

DiNARDO Daniel Nicholas
DOLAN Timothy Michael
DUKA Dominik, O.P.
ERDŐ Péter
FILONI Fernando
GRACIAS Oswald
HARVEY James Michael

KOCH Kurt

NAPIER Wilfrid Fox, O.F.M.
NJUE John
NYCZ Kazimierz
O'MALLEY Seán Patrick, O.F.M. Cap.
ONAIYEKAN John Olorunfemi
OUELLET Marc, P.S.S.
PATABANDIGE DON Albert Malcolm Ranjith
PELL George
PENGO Polycarp

PIACENZA Mauro
PULJIĆ Vinko
RAVASI Gianfranco
RICARD Jean-Pierre
RIVERA CARRERA Norberto
ROBLES ORTEGA Francisco
RODRÍGUEZ MARADIAGA Oscar Andrés, S.D.B.

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Day seven's list of cardinal electors is as follows:

RYŁKO Stanisław [English, Italian]

SALAZAR GÓMEZ Rubén [English, Italian]
SANDOVAL ÍÑIGUEZ Juan [English, Italian]
SANDRI Leonardo [English, Italian]
SARAH Robert [English, Italian]
SARDI Paolo [English, Italian]
SARR Théodore-Adrien [English, Italian]
SCHEID Eusébio Oscar, S.C.I. [English, Italian]
SCHERER Odilo Pedro [English, Italian]
SCHÖNBORN Christoph, O.P. [English, Italian] 
SCOLA Angelo [English, Italian]
SEPE Crescenzio [English, Italian] 

TAGLE Luis Antonio G. [English, Italian]
TAURAN Jean-Louis [English, Italian] 
TERRAZAS SANDOVAL Julio, C.SS.R. [English, Italian] 

Eliminated due to being outside the age of 60-71:

SANDOVAL ÍÑIGUEZ Juan
SARDI Paolo
SARR Théodore-Adrien
SCHEID Eusébio Oscar, S.C.I. 
TAGLE Luis Antonio G.
TERRAZAS SANDOVAL Julio, C.SS.R.

Survivors from day seven (9 of 15):

RYŁKO Stanisław
SALAZAR GÓMEZ Rubén
SANDRI Leonardo
SARAH Robert
SCHERER Odilo Pedro
SCHÖNBORN Christoph, O.P.
SCOLA Angelo
SEPE Crescenzio
TAURAN Jean-Louis

Total Survivors thus far (45 of 105):

ALENCHERRY George
AVIZ João BRAZ de
BARBARIN Philippe
BERTELLO Giuseppe

BETORI Giuseppe
BOZANIĆ Josip
BURKE Raymond Leo
CALCAGNO Domenico
CAÑIZARES LLOVERA Antonio
CIPRIANI THORNE Juan Luis
COLLINS Thomas Christopher
COMASTRI Angelo

DiNARDO Daniel Nicholas
DOLAN Timothy Michael
DUKA Dominik, O.P.
ERDŐ Péter
FILONI Fernando
GRACIAS Oswald
HARVEY James Michael

KOCH Kurt

NAPIER Wilfrid Fox, O.F.M.
NJUE John
NYCZ Kazimierz
O'MALLEY Seán Patrick, O.F.M. Cap.
ONAIYEKAN John Olorunfemi
OUELLET Marc, P.S.S.
PATABANDIGE DON Albert Malcolm Ranjith
PELL George
PENGO Polycarp

PIACENZA Mauro
PULJIĆ Vinko
RAVASI Gianfranco
RICARD Jean-Pierre
RIVERA CARRERA Norberto
ROBLES ORTEGA Francisco
RODRÍGUEZ MARADIAGA Oscar Andrés, S.D.B.

RYŁKO Stanisław
SALAZAR GÓMEZ Rubén
SANDRI Leonardo
SARAH Robert
SCHERER Odilo Pedro
SCHÖNBORN Christoph, O.P.
SCOLA Angelo
SEPE Crescenzio
TAURAN Jean-Louis

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Day eight's list of cardinal electors is as follows:

TETTAMANZI Dionigi [English, Italian] 
THOTTUNKAL Baselios Cleemis [English, Italian] 
TONG Hon John [English, Italian] 
TOPPO Telesphore Placidus [English, Italian] 
TURCOTTE Jean-Claude [English, Italian]
TURKSON Peter Kodwo Appiah [English, Italian]

UROSA SAVINO Jorge Liberato [English, Italian]

VALLINI Agostino [English, Italian]
VEGLIÒ Antonio Maria [English, Italian] 
VELA CHIRIBOGA Raúl Eduardo [English, Italian]
VERSALDI Giuseppe [English, Italian] 
VINGT-TROIS André [English, Italian]

WOELKI Rainer Maria [English, Italian]
WUERL Donald William [English, Italian]

ZUBEIR WAKO Gabriel [English, Italian] 

Eliminated due to being outside the age of 60-71:

TETTAMANZI Dionigi
THOTTUNKAL Baselios Cleemis
TONG Hon John
TOPPO Telesphore Placidus
TURCOTTE Jean-Claude
VALLINI Agostino
VEGLIÒ Antonio Maria
VELA CHIRIBOGA Raúl Eduardo
WOELKI Rainer Maria
WUERL Donald William

Survivors from day eight (5 of 15):

TURKSON Peter Kodwo Appiah
UROSA SAVINO Jorge Liberato
VERSALDI Giuseppe
VINGT-TROIS André
ZUBEIR WAKO Gabriel

Total Survivors thus far (50 of *120):

ALENCHERRY George
AVIZ João BRAZ de
BARBARIN Philippe
BERTELLO Giuseppe

BETORI Giuseppe
BOZANIĆ Josip
BURKE Raymond Leo
CALCAGNO Domenico
CAÑIZARES LLOVERA Antonio
CIPRIANI THORNE Juan Luis
COLLINS Thomas Christopher
COMASTRI Angelo

DiNARDO Daniel Nicholas
DOLAN Timothy Michael
DUKA Dominik, O.P.
ERDŐ Péter
FILONI Fernando
GRACIAS Oswald
HARVEY James Michael

KOCH Kurt

NAPIER Wilfrid Fox, O.F.M.
NJUE John
NYCZ Kazimierz
O'MALLEY Seán Patrick, O.F.M. Cap.
ONAIYEKAN John Olorunfemi
OUELLET Marc, P.S.S.
PATABANDIGE DON Albert Malcolm Ranjith
PELL George
PENGO Polycarp

PIACENZA Mauro
PULJIĆ Vinko
RAVASI Gianfranco
RICARD Jean-Pierre
RIVERA CARRERA Norberto
ROBLES ORTEGA Francisco
RODRÍGUEZ MARADIAGA Oscar Andrés, S.D.B.

RYŁKO Stanisław
SALAZAR GÓMEZ Rubén
SANDRI Leonardo
SARAH Robert
SCHERER Odilo Pedro
SCHÖNBORN Christoph, O.P.
SCOLA Angelo
SEPE Crescenzio
TAURAN Jean-Louis

TURKSON Peter Kodwo Appiah
UROSA SAVINO Jorge Liberato
VERSALDI Giuseppe
VINGT-TROIS André
ZUBEIR WAKO Gabriel

*I don't know how 120 cardinals made it into the Sistine Chapel - 2 apparently snuck in via one of the secret tunnels!  They were expelled due to age restrictions not yet updated on the Vatican's website!

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Total Survivors thus far = 50.  The first 8 days of eliminations were based on age.  Over the last 500 years, the average age of a new Pope at his election is 64.  In the last 300 years, it's 65.  I figured to give or take about 5 years in either direction, giving a bit more to the older end of the range due to today's longer lifespan.  That's how I came to my guess that the next pope will be between the ages of 60-71.  

The next round of eliminations begins today, based on geography and liturgical rite.  While new technologies have made the Pope's leadership of the Catholic Church more universally visible than ever, I'm hedging my bet that the time is not yet ripe for the Patriarch of the Latin/Western Church to come from the East.  This also means no Eastern Rite cardinals will make it, even if they live in the West.  That leaves Europe, Africa, North and South America, and Australia (Western in its culture/roots).  Only the most prominent and influential cardinals from Australia, Africa, North America, and South America (a little extra weight here, with 42% of the world's Catholics) will make the cut, as a good half of the cardinals still hail from Europe.  Among these, roughly a quarter are Italian.  For this reason, along with the tradition of having an Italian Bishop of the Italian city of Rome, Italians will have the easiest time making the cut during this round.  Without further ado, let the next round of eliminations begin!

Remaining cardinals from the Day One group:

ALENCHERRY George [English, Italian]
AVIZ João BRAZ de [English, Italian]

BARBARIN Philippe [English, Italian]
BERTELLO Giuseppe [English, Italian]

Survivors from the Day One group to the merge: (3 out of 4)

AVIZ João BRAZ de

BARBARIN Philippe

BERTELLO Giuseppe

Total cardinals left = (49 out of 50 who started Round Two on Day Nine)

AVIZ João BRAZ de [English, Italian]

BARBARIN Philippe [English, Italian]
BERTELLO Giuseppe [English, Italian] 

 
BETORI Giuseppe [English, Italian] 
BOZANIĆ Josip [English, Italian]
BURKE Raymond Leo [English, Italian]

CALCAGNO Domenico [English, Italian]
CAÑIZARES LLOVERA Antonio [English, Italian] 
CIPRIANI THORNE Juan Luis [English, Italian]
COLLINS Thomas Christopher [English, Italian]

COMASTRI Angelo [English, Italian]

DiNARDO Daniel Nicholas [English, Italian]
DOLAN Timothy Michael  [English, Italian]
DUKA Dominik, O.P. [English, Italian]

ERDŐ Péter [English, Italian]

FILONI Fernando  [English, Italian] 

GRACIAS Oswald [English, Italian]

HARVEY James Michael [English, Italian]

KOCH Kurt [English, Italian]

NAPIER Wilfrid Fox, O.F.M. [English, Italian]

NJUE John [English, Italian]
NYCZ Kazimierz [English, Italian]

O'MALLEY Seán Patrick, O.F.M. Cap. [English, Italian] 
ONAIYEKAN John Olorunfemi  [English, Italian]
OUELLET Marc, P.S.S. [English, Italian]

PATABANDIGE DON Albert Malcolm Ranjith [English, Italian]
PELL George [English, Italian] 
PENGO Polycarp [English, Italian]

PIACENZA Mauro [English, Italian]
PULJIĆ Vinko [English, Italian]

RAVASI Gianfranco [English, Italian]
RICARD Jean-Pierre [English, Italian]
RIVERA CARRERA Norberto [English, Italian]

ROBLES ORTEGA Francisco [English, Italian]
RODRÍGUEZ MARADIAGA Oscar Andrés, S.D.B. [English, Italian]

RYŁKO Stanisław [English, Italian]

SALAZAR GÓMEZ Rubén [English, Italian]

SANDRI Leonardo [English, Italian]
SARAH Robert [English, Italian]
SCHERER Odilo Pedro [English, Italian]
SCHÖNBORN Christoph, O.P. [English, Italian] 
SCOLA Angelo [English, Italian]
SEPE Crescenzio [English, Italian] 

TAURAN Jean-Louis [English, Italian]

TURKSON Peter Kodwo Appiah [English, Italian]

UROSA SAVINO Jorge Liberato [English, Italian]

VERSALDI Giuseppe [English, Italian] 
VINGT-TROIS André [English, Italian]

ZUBEIR WAKO Gabriel [English, Italian]

[NYer]

The Rules

There are 118 cardinal electors who will process into the Sistine Chapel at a date yet to be determined.  They will participate in a sacred ceremony that is centuries old.  The next pope is almost certain to come from that group of men, though he need not.  He can be any eligible baptized male.  In the meantime, let's get familiar with the men most likely to be chosen as the next Successor to St. Peter.

The way Survivor: Sistine Chapel will work is as follows:

1.  I will begin by separating the 118 cardinal electors into 8 groups (or tribes, in Survivor terminology) of 15, with the last two groups being made up of 14.  I will do this alphabetically for the sake of keeping things simple, and I hope to cover one tribe per day.

2.  The first round of eliminations will be based on age.  Anyone outside the range of 60-71 will be eliminated, as my gut tells me that this time around, the electors will be thinking a bit more long-term than they were when they elected the 78 year-old Cardinal Ratzinger to be Pope Benedict XVI, but not so long-term as John Paul II, who was elected before the age of 60.  Tribes will not necessarily lose the same number of people.  Some may be decimated while others keep their members intact.

3.  The second round will take geography and rite into consideration.  Some countries are extremely unlikely to produce a pope at this point in history, although there may be exceptions if one is dynamic enough (see Pope John Paul II).  This will further reduce the number of members in each tribe.

4.  The third round involves the first tribal merge.  The number of tribes and members of each tribe will be determined by how many cardinals are left.  Eliminations will be made on the basis of linguistic skills.  If one cannot speak Italian and English, they are almost certainly eliminated.  Assumptions will be made if linguistic information is not easily discovered.

5.  The fourth round may or may not eliminate many candidates.  The idea will be to eliminate anyone perceived as extremely polarizing.  I honestly don't know if I will be able to uncover any who fit the bill, but if there are cardinals who do not fit the "Benedictine" interpretation of Vatican II as a Council of reform in continuity with Tradition, they will be eliminated.

6.  The fifth round involves a final tribal merge.  I feel that by this time there will be a small enough number to form one group of survivors.  Eliminations will be based on a combination of things at this point, revisiting geography and linguistic skills especially.

7.  The last round will require a more in-depth look at each of the remaining cardinal electors, and nothing other than my gut will determine who goes vs. who stays.

I welcome insightful comments throughout the process.  Let's have some fun with this and use our prayerful imaginations to consider just who our next pope might be!

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Check out Mark's blog for some interesting comments and insight into the Cardinals and the Catholic Church. You will need to click on each day to view the running commentary. Enjoy!

[NYer]

Survivor Sistine Chapel links:

Intro thru Day 4
Day 5

[Verginius Rufus]

Today is the 500th anniversary of the death of Pope Julius II, the pope who commissioned Michelangelo to paint the Sistine Chapel ceiling. (Pope Julius II was the nephew of Pope Sixtus IV, for whom the chapel is named.)