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The menorah on the Arch looks like the menorah on the Maccabean coins, which far predate Herod’s Second Temple.

Having reviewed a fair bit of the literature on the topic, I will concede the point about straight v. rounded arms. It would seem that those holding for straight arms are in concurrence with Rashi and Maimonides. Yet the Hasmonian coins of which you speak are not undisputed, particularly as regards the base, the consensus about which is that it is Hasmonian. The key problem of that depicted on the Arch of Titus is that it sports pagan iconography, such as the dragon and eagle, which are definitely characteristic of Roman iconography. There are also pottery shards and mosaics from that time depicting the menorah with three legs.

From one particularly thorough source:

If one looks closely at the base of the Menora, one discovers the matter is even more horrific. The panels on the base include: the picture of two eagles (the symbol of Rome), and a dragon with a tail of a fish! The dragon was one of the idols of Greek mythology, worshiped during Roman rule. The Mishna in Avoda Zara states that, "if one finds vessels and upon them are the picture of a dragon... they must be thrown into the Dead Sea." They must be destroyed because one is forbidden to derive any benefit from as an idol. In fact, an exact duplication of panel, both the picture of the dragon as well as the border motif, is found in a Roman Temple in Turkey.

The majority of discussions I saw cited the base as a Herodian creation intended to curry favor with his Roman overlords. The notable lack of the menorah on coins after that time and the third century return to a three-legged image in concurrence with the Gemara on the topic suggest a similar conclusion.

You are correct about the base of the menorah on Hashmonaim coins. It is indeed different from the base depicted on the Herodian menorah even though the curve of the branches seems similar.

I do tend to lean toward the Chabad view, though I can see that the counter argument might be correct in the end.

Oh, by the way, I don’t think it is a coincidence that the base of the menorah that is the official symbol of the State of Israel uses the square block Herodian/Roman design: Jews are not yet sovereign in the Land of Israel.