With a split, both would carry the Methodist Church name. That’s wrong in so many ways starting with tolerance and continued acceptance. The Christian Bible followers should be the only Methodist Church while the non followers should be kicked to the curb.
What happened to the PCUSA will happen to the UMC. A conservative version will start up and churches will begin to cross over.
The whole Holsten Conference of the UMC may leave en masse. It is very conservative.
No different than the Ameican Baptist vs. Southern Baptist, Presbyterian Church USA vs. Presbyterian Church in America, and Evangelical Lutheran Church in America vs. Lutheran Church Missouri Synod, with in all cases the liberal heretics in the former and the Biblically orthodox in the latter. The amazing thing is not that it is happening with the Methodists, but that it didn't happen 40 years ago, the same time Situation Ethics and Liberation Theology combined to bring heresy to the churches.