Exellent post you have put together here.
In my opinion the Black Flags are not yet flying because they are waiting to rally more support. They want a victory of some type in Afganistan. Such will require at least some US/British forces on the ground for them to over run then use the Pakistan turning to OBL as the move that coincides with unfurling actual Black flags. Symbolically to many Muslims the simple fact of war is enough to presume the Black Flags.
Stay well - Stay safe - Stay armed - Yorktown
They want a victory of some type in Afganistan.Perhaps, but that would be dicey, and hard to schedule in any event.
How about this scenario (with a nod to Travis McGee):
Pass out a lot of Black Flags at Pakistan's end of the Khyber Pass, stage enormous rallies, and then have bin Laden dramatically appear in front of the adoring hordes with the simultaneous detonation of WMDs in America, Europe, and elsewhere.
"If you see the black flags coming from Khurasan,
join that army, even if you have to crawl over ice,
for that is the army of the Imam al-Mahdi
and no one can stop that army until it reaches Jerusalem."
It would be the loudest call to battle in History.
Millions would answer.
