Curbing Mr Mugabe - What can outsiders do to help Zimbabwe?

ROBERT MUGABE may be a pair of concrete boots on a drowning country's feet, but he is also a skilled diplomat. His technique is simple but effective. Concerned foreign leaders ask him to obey his own laws, to stop his supporters from torturing dissidents, and so on. He promises to do all these things, thus forestalling the imposition of sanctions against his regime. He then carries on as before. The foreign leaders ask him once more to stop, he promises once more to do so, and he breaks his promise once more. This week, and not before time, some foreign leaders started to lose patience with Mr Mugabe. But, with so much attention focused on Afghanistan, it is not clear that they will devote the necessary energy to help solve Zimbabwe's crisis.

Two months ago, Britain tried the soft approach for what will, one hopes, be the last time. In return for a promise by Mr Mugabe's government to redistribute land in a legal and orderly manner, paying compensation to farmers whose land is expropriated, Britain offered to hand over £36m ($52m). Mr Mugabe broke the pact within hours. Since then, 680 commercial farms have been invaded by violent squatters, some of whom are paid and organised by the Zimbabwean security forces. The squatters have put little effort into growing food but much into whipping and occasionally murdering suspected supporters of the opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC). Mr Mugabe's only nod towards legality has been to force independent judges to retire with thinly-veiled death threats and then to replace them with lackeys.

This week, the European Union may have decided that enough is enough. Its foreign ministers, meeting in Luxembourg, demanded talks with Mr Mugabe's men about human-rights abuses in Zimbabwe; this could be a first step towards sanctions. Mr Mugabe's foreign minister said the Zimbabwean government was willing to talk about human rights, but would not be dictated to. In other words, Mr Mugabe is still playing for time. Whatever he says, he will not stop intimidating his opponents, because that is the central plank of his campaign to be re-elected next year. He believes that he can win if enough rural voters are persuaded that they will end up having their legs broken and their homes burned down if they vote for the MDC.

So what can Zimbabwe's friends do? Crude economic sanctions would hurt the poor, not Mr Mugabe's cronies. Targeted sanctions might help: a travel ban on ruling-party bosses, for example. Freezing their foreign bank accounts would hurt them more; but, though much of their money was certainly obtained through crookery, this will be hard to prove. Aid to Zimbabwe, which is already channelled largely through charities, should preferably go exclusively to organisations other than the government.

But the best hope for peaceful change in Zimbabwe is next year's presidential election, which must be held before April. If the vote is free and fair, Mr Mugabe has no chance. Clearly, it will not be free and fair. But outsiders, especially neighbouring countries such as South Africa, can lean on Mr Mugabe to make him cheat less than he would like to. They can, for example, send election monitors as soon as possible. This will not be easy; Mr Mugabe's government said this week that EU monitors would not be invited. But the more eyes that are on Zimbabwe, the less difficult it will be for Zimbabweans to prise off their concrete boots and swim for the surface.

To: Clive; technochick99; Great Dane; Travis McGee; Migraine; jsraggmann

But outsiders, especially neighbouring countries such as South Africa, can lean on Mr Mugabe to make him cheat less than he would like to.

Yeah right. That pillar of freedom, enlightenment and democracy, South Africa, will fix things.

What can outsiders do to help Zimbabwe?

Colonise it, elect Ian Smith, change its name to Rhodesia -- and allow 4,000 years for evolution to do its trick!

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.