Earley Camp Optimistic After Poll

The Washington Times ^ | November 4, 2001 | Stephen Dinan

[Ligeia]

A new internal Republican campaign poll shows Mark L. Earley trailing Democrat Mark R. Warner by 6 percentage points, leaving Republicans upbeat and still believing they have a shot at the governorship in Tuesday's elections.

Christopher LaCivita, a senior adviser to the Earley campaign, said he wouldn't comment on internal campaign polls

[Ligeia]

Republican and swing voters who toyed with the notion of a Democrat for governor are coming home. Another reason why lit drops and GOTV phone calls these next two days are crucial.

[ABG(anybody but Gore)]

Best of luck come Tuesday. I can't believe people in Virginia would be fooled by Warner's clintonian stances.

[Ligeia]

The Editorial Board of the Richmond Times-Dispatch, God love 'em, is doing their darndest to save knuckleheads from themselves.

Nov 04, 2001

Vote Earley, and . . .

On Tuesday, Virginia will go to the polls. The attacks of 9/11 reminded Americans that their country is precious. This year's votes will resemble tangible commitments to the nation and its institutions. Last Sunday the Times-Dispatch endorsed Republican Mark Earley. We repeat that endorsement today.

Earley is the real thing. Ideals motivated his entry into politics; he has served with distinction in the State Senate and as Attorney General. He is prepared. Although recession clouds the economic outlook, Virginia finds itself in solid shape. The major reforms have occurred. The point is to keep progress on track. From the start Earley supported no-parole, real welfare reform, the Standards of Learning, and the phasing out of the car tax. He is not a Mark-come-lately, someone who embraced the cause after the cause had demonstrated wisdom and popularity.

This year's budget impasse disgraced the General Assembly. During his years in the legislature, Earley earned a reputation for getting things done. His skills won the admiration of those who disagreed with his views. The qualities he displayed will be needed next year.

The T-D believes candidates for Governor and Lieutenant Governor ought to run - the way candidates for President and Vice Presidents do - as a slate. The chief executive and the first in the line of succession should belong to the same team. Many years ago Linwood Holton, then at the top of his game, argued that the Governor and Attorney General should come from the same party, too. He spoke from experience. He was a Republican; his Attorney General was a Democrat. Perhaps Virginia eventually will fill the Attorney General's slot by executive nomination subject to legislative consent. For the time being voters will continue to make the call. Citizens who mark their ballots for Mark Earley will want to elect his running-mates, Jay Katzen for Lieutenant Governor and Jerry Kilgore for Attorney General.

The most vigorous race for the House of Delegates falls in the 68th District, which includes Richmond's West End, certain precincts south of the River, and a chunk of Chesterfield. The preferred candidate is Democrat Ed Barber. The attributes he has brought to his longtime tenure on the Chesterfield Board of Supervisors would be welcome in a House likely to be dominated by Republicans who will face the same temptations their predecessors often failed to resist. The 97th, which runs from New Kent to the environs of Fredericksburg, and includes portions of Hanover and eastern Henrico, confronts a win-win scenario whichever candidate prevails. Rosalyn Dance is the best candidate in the Petersburg-based 63rd.

As in years past, the region's incumbents face desultory opposition - or none. In certain instances, the absence of competition pays tribute to the records of Delegates running for re-election; in others, it reflects the anti-democratic consequences of gerrymandering.

Richmond's Sheriff does a good job when neither he nor the jail makes news. The T-D endorses Anthony Ested.

. . .

Even before 9/11, the Virginia campaign was not shaping up as memorable. The candidates seemed in a losing struggle to find issues and to connect with the electorate. As many people in many fields - athletes, actors, businessmen - have said, the terror attacks put things into perspective. Yet the grave national challenge has not made government's daily imperatives disappear. There are roads to maintain and build, children to teach, schools to run, programs to administer, prisoners to control, and patients to heal. We believe Mark Earley is the candidate best equipped by philosophy, experience, and temperament for the times. Elect his team.

Tuesday's ballots will translate into more than votes for particular candidates. Each one will represent a vote of confidence in the Commonwealth of Virginia and in the United States - sweet land of liberty. Let freedom ring!

Source

[Ligeia]

Thank you, my friend. I don't want to believe it, either.

[Ligeia]

Nov 04, 2001

The Zillionaire: A New Warner, or the Same Old Same Old?

ROSS MACKENZIE
TIMES-DISPATCH COLUMNIST

ROSS MACKENZIE

The polls are saying the gubernatorial game is as good as over and nouveau zillionaire Mark Warner will win in a walk, possibly leading a Democratic sweep for the first time since 1989.

Could be. But the political past of this insistently "non-political" pol continues to haunt his present.

Knowing he could not win in Virginia sounding like the lefty of old, these days Warner has reinvented himself as an oh-so-moderate middle-of-the-road centrist independent - an outsider standing smack on the midpoint of the ideological spectrum. He now calls himself a "Virginia conservative" - professing to have cooled his positions on so many hot-button issues (e.g., parole abolition, welfare reform, taxes, guns, charter schools, the death penalty, car-tax repeal), he sounds practically like an echo of Mark Earley.

Yet hear The Washington Post's R.H. Melton, last Sunday:

This is the same Mark Warner who arrived here in 1989 as a Democratic true believer, hellbent on bringing order to the long-shot gubernatorial campaign of L. Douglas Wilder. The same Warner who later chaired the state Democratic Party and became its U.S. Senate nominee in 1996, when he used a Social Security scare tactic to arouse elderly voters against GOP incumbent Senator John Warner.

The longtime liberal Mark Warner says on today's Commentary section-front, "I'm proud to be a Democrat." He does not say he has extensive ties to the national Democratic Party - to Teddy Kennedy, Bill Clinton, and Al Gore. While still in college he earned his spurs as an aide to Chris Dodd, the very-left Connecticut Senator who several days ago undistinguished himself once again by slamming the Bush administration for warning the citizenry about the possibility of new terrorist attacks.

In his various capacities as a Democratic activist, Warner routinely has depicted Virginia Republicans as a bunch of loons. For instance:

• IN 1989 WARNER said 8th District Congressman Stan Parris "holds extremist views."
• In 1993 Warner said George Allen and his ticketmates "want to take a major step backward and a sharp turn to the right." He termed the three Republicans "the most far-right, extremist candidates that the state has seen in the last 30 years," constituting "the most extreme, right-wing, radical" ticket in Virginia history.
• In 1994 Warner called the state Republican Party "one of the most ideologically divisive organizations in the country." He said the party consists of "a whole coalition of people that have all sorts of different views that I think that most of us in this room would find threatening to them and what it means to be an American."
• In 1996, when incumbent Senator John Warner employed Mark Twain's phrase "Connecticut Yankee" in referring to his opponent Mark Warner, the latter termed it a "personal attack" and demanded the Senator apologize. Warner said Senator Warner, a senior member of the Senate Armed Services Committee, "sided with the government against veterans," and said the Senator "talks like Mr. Independent but votes like Mr. Gingrich."
• Last year Warner said Republicans have "crazy, shortsighted, narrow-minded ideas."
• This year Warner, the "Virginia conservative," has dismissed as "negative" practically every Earley citation of Warner's prior statements and associations. And the other day Warner's campaign manager, taking cues from Warner's own past, kept the rhetoric escalated - terming Earley and his running-mates "far out of the mainstream" and "well-schooled in the slash-and-burn politics of the gutter."

  THESE DAYS, on issue after issue, the two Marks sound much the same. Earley knows his mind. He has changed little on the issues since leaving the Democrats and entering politics as a disciple of Ronald Reagan. Maybe Warner has done a 180 since beating the tom-toms for motor-voter and against more B-2 bombers and drilling in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge - and maybe not.

  Today he is right about (a) re-emphasizing vocational education and (b) holding a Northern Virginia referendum on additional sales taxes, though he is wrong (c) to base 40 percent ($900 million) of his transportation plan on revenues from such new taxes and (d) to oppose striker replacement. He favors Internet sales taxation. And in a declining economy, additional revenue for his $4 billion in new or expanded programs will have to come from somewhere. So no wonder he won't take the no-tax pledge.

  Has Mark Warner grown? He has a long history of Democratic activism and mean-spirited verbiage trashing almost all things Republican. He says he is "not a career politician" - yet despite having never held office, he is. The more he seeks to push his reinvented self onto the electorate, the more one senses he is merely posturing. His past provides few reasons for believing he is not a leftist ideologue at odds with prevailing Virginia sentiment.

  A year ago, in electing Jon Corzine to the Senate, New Jersey's voters launched a rich unknown Democrat onto the national political stage. Will Virginians do likewise with Mark Warner? His past haunts his present and raises in a major way the question of trust: Is he to be believed? If Warner wins with heavy support from the sorts of voters who early on swooned to the croons of Bill Clinton and Ross Perot (and Jon Corzine), his past and present - alas too late - may well haunt Virginia's future, too.

  Source

[Jackie222]

I received a polling phone call the other day. The questions were so slanted that I had no trouble knowing that the liberals were asking them.

I just said that I was voting for Earley and all the fine ppl that are running with him. That ended the discussion very quickly.

[Ligeia]

I wonder if they bothered to include your answer in their polling data. Sounds like maybe not, if they ended the call quickly. But I wouldn't want to think ill of our trusty pollsters!

[Dane]

Bump

[Ligeia]

Nov 04, 2001

Earley predicting an upset

BY PAUL BRADLEY
TIMES-DISPATCH STAFF WRITER

WEST SPRINGFIELD - Trailing in the polls, especially on his opponent's home turf of Northern Virginia, Republican gubernatorial candidate Mark L. Earley ral- lied the party faithful yesterday.

He predicted that, like the come-from-behind New York Yankees, he will confound the pundits and prevail on Election Day.

About 300 people braved a damp morning to take part in a get-out-the-vote rally which drew his two GOP ticket mates, the party's two U.S. senators and Gov. Jim Gilmore, who previously had been missing from the campaign trail.

Earley, trailing Democrat Mark R. Warner in most public opinion polls as the campaign enters it final weekend, said it would be a mistake to write off his efforts - just as it was a blunder to count out the Yankees before they came from behind in the late innings last week to win two games that seemingly had been lost.

"A lot of people a couple of nights ago turned off the lights and went to bed in the bottom of the eighth inning because they thought the series was over," Earley said. "And the liberal media has turned off the lights in the eighth inning, because they think it's over. But my friends, the people who care about lower taxes, the people who care about families, the people who care about experience are still in the ballpark. They're still playing, and, in the bottom of the ninth, we're going to be victorious on Tuesday."

Winning over Northern Virginia, home to almost a third of the state's registered voters, is critical to both campaigns. It has been an especially difficult task for Earley.

Warner lives in Alexandria and has spent years courting the region's influential business community, some of whom have backed higher taxes in exchange for services. Earley's pledge to block a referendum on raising local sales taxes to provide money for transportation improvements has seemed to backfire in an area where commuting is a daily frustration for thousands of people.

Earley, with political roots in the Christian conservative movement, has not always been effective in courting a region more diverse and less conservative than the rest of the state. In addition, residents of the region, which is home to the Pentagon, have been preoccupied with the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks and subsequent anthrax scares. Relatively little media attention has been focused on the governor's race, frustrating Earley's efforts to have his message heard.

Earley continued to stress that his 14 years as an elected official make him a far better choice to lead Virginia in the post-terrorist attack era than Warner, who has never held elective office.

"This is not a time for on-the-job training for someone who seeks to be governor of Virginia," he said. "We need someone, a team, who has experience in public safety, in working with law enforcement at every level, a team that's going to stand shoulder-to-shoulder with President Bush."

He also suggested that the multimillionaire Warner is out of touch with the financial concerns of average people when it comes to taxes.

"It would be nice if all of us had the luxury of not having to worry about how many and how much taxes we had to pay, but for most of us, that's not true," he said. "We have a mortgage, we have a car payment. There is only one candidate in this race who has taken a pledge not to raise taxes, only one candidate who is going to protect the taxpayer, only one candidate who is going to make sure we finish the job on cutting the car tax."

Gilmore, whose budget battle with the General Assembly over the car-tax cut has undercut his political support in Northern Virginia, said Earley will build on the progress made under his administration and that of former Gov. George Allen, such as in cutting taxes and abolishing parole.

"It matters very much who gets elected," Gilmore said. "Don't let them take us back."

Later in the day, Earley shook hands with well-wishers at the Urbanna Oyster Festival. Earley supporters at the festival said they haven't given up, despite the polls.

"I didn't know all the votes had been counted yet," said George McCracken, 77, of Spotsylvania County, a retired federal employee.

"They need to listen to the people - not to the polls and not to the people in their campaigns," said Jim Burch, 34, of Northern Virginia.

Earley was to make his final campaign appearance of the day in Southwest Virginia.

---

Contact Paul Bradley at (703) 548-8758 or pbradley@timesdispatch.com

---

The Associated Press contributed to this report.

============

The rally got good media coverage yesterday. I saw it repeated every half hour on NewsChannel 8 and it was on Channel 9. Julie Carey of Channel 4 was at the event, but I didn't see her coverage. She's usually snide when covering Virginia politics, so I expect her coverage to have been negative. The Guiliani ad was run on Channel 9 again this morning.

[Ligeia]

Nov 04, 2001

Will attacks stir Virginia electorate?

BY REX BOWMAN
TIMES-DISPATCH STAFF WRITER

BOB DENTONPolitical Analyst at Virginia Tech

Virginia's political campaigns are generally known as good theater.

And yet, after a summer that ended with thousands of Americans killed in terrorist attacks, and in the middle of an autumn that began with U.S. aircraft bombing Afghanistan, the shenanigans of political candidates this year seem largely to have failed to draw an audience.

What is the mood of Virginians heading into Tuesday's statewide elections? Interviews with people across the state last week suggest it's somber. Even bleak. And there's more:

People are angry, still. They're angry at Osama bin Laden for allegedly masterminding the attacks and angry at the murder of innocent men, women and children.

They're anxious, too, worried about anthrax and the remote possibility that the next letter they handle could contain deadly spores.

And they're a little bit weary, staying up nights to catch the latest updates on CNN and trudging to bed with little good news to take with them.

Like other Americans, Virginians have responded to the terrorist attacks by hanging U.S. flags from their houses, slapping flag stickers on their vehicles, wearing red, white and blue ribbons on their lapels and singing full-throated songs like "God Bless America."

So what does all this portend for the election? Some have voiced hope that Virginians will turn out to vote in a large number in a sort of celebration of the democracy that's under attack.

But those who follow such things think otherwise: Registrars across the state say they've seen little to make them think people will rush to the polls.

Also to consider: Post-attack elections in other states showed no surge in voter participation.

People may be in shock, but they apparently have not been shocked out of the apathy that plagues U.S. elections.

"The terrorism has sobered the nation," said Dave "Mudcat" Saunders, a Democratic activist in Roanoke and campaigner for gubernatorial candidate Mark R. Warner. "But it hasn't affected Mark Warner's campaign at all. We're working hard to get out the vote."

David Botkins, spokesman for Republican gubernatorial candi- date Mark L. Earley, said the terrorism prompted Earley to focus on public safety in his speeches and in his television and radio ads.

"It's his stump speech now. He talks about that at every stop. The terrorism has put a renewed emphasis on public safety and the need for experienced leadership that Virginians need and trust."

But is anyone listening?

"In terms of money being spent, this is the most expensive election in Virginia history, but I think people are not focused on it," said Bob Denton, political analyst at Virginia Tech.

"Even people who are well-educated and people you would expect to be civically active aren't paying attention.

"The act of voting is no longer seen as a ritual of democracy. Waving the flag has a more symbolic meaning for people."

Fewer than half of registered voters bothered to go to the polls for the last gubernatorial election in 1997. Denton said he expects the same this year, noting also that candidates have had to compete with terrorism-related news for people's attention.

Laura Meador of Botetourt County understands that. The 22-year-old waitress said she wishes she could cause gruesome bodily harm to the terrorists behind the Sept. 11 attacks, and she flies a flag at home to support U.S. troops. But she's never registered to vote, and she said the attacks didn't prompt her to think of registering.

"Everything the candidates talk about, it all seems so meaningless," she said." Especially now. I already feel helpless, and voting wouldn't make me feel any better."

Derek Jackson, 20, of Verona, a student at James Madison University, said he will vote Tuesday, but he no longer enjoys the partisanship of politics. "I'd have to say I don't focus on one party as much."

Valerie Haynes, a 43-year-old nurse and Martinsville resident, said she plans to vote, just as she has for the past 25 years. She said she's heard people talk about their anger and anxiety, but she hasn't heard any of them say they plan to vote because of the terrorism attacks.

"People either believe in that very strongly or they don't," she said. "A lot of people still think one vote doesn't matter."

Those are the thoughts of the public.

A lot of people are worried about the fate of the nation, but many of them believe a laissez faire attitude toward voting won't harm democracy.

Source

=================

Current online poll at the RTD asking if "you plan to vote on Tuesday" shows 12% have voted for "No." Another indication of how key the turnout will be on Tuesday.

[MindyW]

Did my lit drop yesterday. I hope you're right and it helps. I can't even imagine voting for that dork Warner.

[Ligeia]

I did my assigned lit drop yesterday, too. It has to help with Warner support soft and so many still undecideds. Our precinct captain has organized more lit drops this afternoon after church at the local Safeway. I plan to help out there some, too. If we lose, we're going down swinging!

[SamAdams76]

Vote Earley and vote often.

[Ligeia]

We Virginians have our hands full this time.

[LiberteeBell]

A bump for Earley!!!

[pgkdan]

Great news!! I wish the Virginia Pilot had as much sense. Warner is anti-gun, anti-Christian, anti-prolife and anti-school choice. He mocks parents who home school and panders to people's emotions. His commercial made within days of 9-11-01 made me want to vomit. I couldn;t believce that he was actually campaigning for governor on the not yet recovered bodies of those victims.

[Ligeia]

Yes, indeed! Earley looking great right now on WRC NBC channel 4 explaining his positions on the issues, including why we should use the bonding capabilities to pay for road improvements instead of raising taxes.

More Virginia news:Virginia gets millions to help the unemployed

Virginia has suffered economic losses of more than $1.2 billion because of the attacks, Gilmore said. Much the loss was suffered while Reagan National Airport was closed from Sept. 11 until Oct. 4. Of the airport's 10,000 workers, Gilmore said 5,000 have filed for unemployment benefits. Another 35,000 across the state have filed jobless claims since the attacks -- more than double the figure during the same time period last year.

[Ligeia]

Warner is anti-gun, anti-Christian, anti-prolife and anti-school choice.

Yes, he is. Compare and contrast the two candidates, and it's obvious who the right choice is for Virginia's governor. Questions, Answers: Earley, Warner State Views

[LiberteeBell]

Earley sounded great on our local talk radio show on Friday. He did a one-hour call in, and had some excellent conservative responses to the questions asked.

Regarding the $$ for unemployment: so, someone is finally noticing that the Pentagon and Reagan National are located in VIRGINIA!?!?!

[TN Republican]

Hopefully the Libs who are toying with the idea of a Rat governor will come home too.