I've read all the arguments against numerous earth-like conditions, but even if only 0.5% of planets were formed under the "right" conditions, that's still a lot of planets where life may exist.
All it will take is one more...
Your logic is similar the book the Chariot of the Gods. The sure numbers overwhelm us to think there is abundant intelligent life in the Universe, but the statistics quickly dissolve the argument.
There are 100 billion trillion stars in the Universe. If every star has one planet that could sustain life, then we have 10 to the 25th power possible life planets. Problem is that the odds of life are estimated to be 10 to the 32nd power (some estimates has high as 128th). So your one planet is earth.