Posted on 01/08/2002 1:35:30 AM PST by Cincinatus' Wife
CARACAS, Venezuela (Reuters) - Opponents of Venezuela's ''revolutionary'' President Hugo Chavez, from union leaders to media moguls and middle-class housewives, all agree they want the populist former-paratrooper out of office.
What the South American nation's restive but fragmented opposition cannot agree on is who should replace ``El Comandante'' at the helm of the world's No. 4 oil exporter.
Opposition to Chavez has stiffened in recent months after he used special legislative powers to pass 49 controversial laws, ranging from fishing to the crucial oil sector, which critics say will scare off investment and raise unemployment.
Businessmen and unionists led a successful nationwide strike on Dec. 10 to protest the legislation. Millions of Venezuelans stayed home as shops, banks, businesses and schools shut their doors in protest against Chavez's three-year-old ''revolution''.
While the combative Chavez's democratic term does not expire until 2007, political analysts say his opponents, who the president has branded ``corrupt elites'' and ``pigs'', no longer want just to change his leftist policies. They want someone else.
Despite this apparent groundswell of opposition, no clear contender has emerged to challenge Chavez. With the bedrock of his support among the poor majority of the 24 million Venezuelans only partially eroded, the president still remains his nation's best-supported politician and the discord among his opponents remains one of his principal advantages.
THREATENED BY FALLING OIL PRICES
At the fore of his potential challengers are Henrique Salas, who lost the 1998 presidential election to Chavez, and loquacious Caracas Mayor Alfredo Pena, who served in the president's first cabinet.
``The popularity of Chavez has evaporated,'' said the 65-year old Salas, a Yale-educated economist stridently opposed to Chavez's leftist agenda. The outspoken Salas also dismissed Pena's ideas as too similar to those of the populist president.
Another of the most favored opposition leaders is the governor of the northern state of Miranda, Enrique Mendoza, according to pollsters Mercanalisis. The veteran politician has won widespread respect with his soft-spoken approach and his success in improving infrastructure and services.
Chavez would still win any election held today. A recent poll by independent trackers Datanalisis showed 24.1 percent of voters backed the pugnacious leader. But his wider popular support took a 20 percentage point plunge during the last three months of 2001, to 35.5 percent.
Chavez's popularity, which topped 80 percent immediately after a landslide presidential win in 1998, fell hard after the government passed the 49 reform laws late last year that split the country along class lines.
``This man has divided the country,'' lamented Theresa Ochoa, an out-of-work biologist and among the country's 1.5 million unemployed.
Chavez has insisted the disputed ``revolutionary'' laws, including a much-debated law to redistribute idle property to the needy, are necessary to fight widespread poverty and corruption. Venezuela has one of the most uneven land distributions in the Western Hemisphere.
The Datanalisis survey showed that along with the recent surge of opposition leaders, groups with which Chavez regularly clashes, have also gained popularity. Support for the Catholic church stands at 85.3 percent and the media has 84.9 percent.
DEMANDS OF THE PEOPLE
``What has brought the fall of the president is his inability to meet the demands and aspirations of the people. The frustration is tremendous,'' said political analyst Alfredo Keller in a recent television interview.
In an opinion poll taken before the Dec. 10 strike, more than half of those interviewed wanted an end to the current administration, Keller said.
``Fortunately, the vast majority asked for a legal procedure, by way of a referendum parliamentary dismissal. Only five percent wanted a coup d'etat,'' said Keller.
Some politicians had drawn parallels between Venezuela and Argentina, where an economic crisis provoked a social explosion in December that forced the resignation of President Fernando de la Rua.
``Chavez is trapped in a mire of blame, for unemployment, insecurity, and corruption. Just like Argentina. The discourse is different, but the tragedy is the same,'' analyst Fausto Maso said in a recent opinion article.
And with the price of oil, Venezuela's economic lifeblood, languishing amid a worldwide economic slowdown, Chavez may face growing discontent during 2002 with his failure to meet election promises, analysts warn.
The rush of opposition onto the Venezuela political scene comes as Chavez, who has promised a ``peaceful and democratic revolution'', has hardened his confrontational rhetoric.
One of the beneficiaries of Chavez's waning popularity has been business leader Pedro Carmona, a 60-year-old businessman that engineered the Dec. 10 nationwide strike.
The stoppage was considered the most successful political challenge to Chavez since he took office in February 1999.
For Jacqueline Lorinser, a 39-year-old housewife, the trained economist with a post-graduate from Brussels university would be an attractive president because he appears ``calm and balanced'', in contrast to the firebrand Chavez.
However, Carmona, a petrochemical businessman considered by some as cold until recently, insists he does not want the nation's top political job.
While the uncertainty over the leadership of Venezuela's sprawling opposition seems set to continue, what most political analysts can agree on is that Chavez's ``halo of invincibility'' has been broken forever.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.