Posted on 04/16/2002 11:52:27 AM PDT by Gophack
Obviously Simon wants to raise as much money as he can from other people, but ultimately he's going to have to fork over between $25 and $50 million of his personal fortune if he hopes to be competitive with Davis. That's a ton of money, even for Simon. So the question is, how badly does he really want to win?
Personally, I think that it's too early. The only time ads MAY have worked would have been the week after the election. But the fact is, Davis spent most of his money attacking Riordan and Simon spent most of his money promoting himself. Simon had the moral high ground ... and still has it.
Now, ads are a waste. No one is focusing on the election (although they are more interested now than, say, a month before the primary). It's a waste of money to run hits or puffs.
As to whether Simon can combat Davis: the fact is, Simon is a proven fundraiser. He isn't as good as Davis, but then again he doesn't have the power to sign or veto legislation and used that power to leverage campaign contributions. And, even if he had the power, he's too honest to shake down businesses.
Davis is corrupt. IF he wins re-election, I don't know if he'll be around for four years. He has many, many problems and even the liberal press is getting annoyed with his campaign finance shenanigans.
Simon can combat Davis. He doesn't need the same amount of money. He needs about half of whatever Davis has. Because Democrats waste money, and at some point more money won't get you more votes.
Go Simon!
Not true, actually. I have done extensive polling for independent polling outfits, and it is standard practice to inquire about political affiliation and to make the sample reflect the proportions of registered Reps/Dems/Libs/Greens in the general population. So cheer up, because while 6 1/2 months is too early to declare that Davis is 'done', he is starting to brown up real good and emit a savory odor!
Right after the primary election would have been the time for Simon to take advantage of the buzz and spend money defining himself. Simon has the personal funds, so he could have made the commitment. I agree that the public interest has now slacked off until closer to the election, but it was a missed opportunity.
Similarly, Davis had tens of millions of dollars available, and chose not to instantly go on the attack. I don't believe he botched the opportunity, I think it was a calculated decision that attack ads at that time would likely backfire. Davis would have done it if he thought he could have gotten away with it. Simon is fortunate the way that decision went, because it would have certainly done major damage to him even if it also hurt Davis.
The strategy that Simon employed in the primary couldn't have worked better. It was part skill, part luck and part timing. I'll give the benefit of the doubt to the campaign team that capitalized on Riordan's weakness and plotted the perfect 18 point victory.
Now that March is over, we need to think about where the voters are today. Today, they are not thinking about the campaign. Davis keeps trying to get earned media on the abortion issue and it's not getting him the votes. The hardcore liberals are with him. The hardcore conservatives are with Simon ... that's a third of the electorate on both sides. Will the so-called "middle" vote on abortion or energy? I don't know. I think energy. Also, we often forget the great block of sometime-voters, often religious and disillusioned, apolitical but concerned about society. They may see someone in Bill Simon they could vote for. They start coming out, they bring their friends ... and they add to our Republican base.
Anyway, I'm rambling as I often do about politics and voting. Excuse me. I appreciate your reasoned argument, and you may in fact be right. But now, it's a different ball game, and we'll see where we go from here.
Go Simon!
To quote one paragraph: "Sacramento - Controversial legislation to teach homosexuality throughout the foster care system has been introduced in the California State Legislature. AB 2651 by Democrat Assemblywoman Judy Chu of Monterey Park would indoctrinate foster children to embrace and experiment with homosexual behavior."
We NEED to lose Squat and gain control of the legislature!!!!!!!!!!
$25-50 mil of his own money? No way. Gray-out has $30 million, not $300 million.
That being said, we can and should go after the Hispanic vote. Not in the way the liberal Republicans would have us do it, but by highlighting the similarities between Republican ideas and Hispanic/Catholic values. The more Gray Davis talks about abortion on demand and contraceptives for teenagers, the more Hispanics are going to stand back and say, wait a minute. Is this the guy we want as governor? The guy who's going to give our daughters condoms? Send them for abortions without our knowledge?
At the same time, Hispanics are not the same in the north and the south. L.A. Hispanics are liberals; central valley and northern California Hispanics are more conservative. It's also a generational thing: the longer they have been in the state, the more conservative they are. This doesn't mean that they are REpublican, but it means that they have REpublican/Conservative values. These are the people who gave Prop. 22 a huge victory, the people who voted over 80% for the initiative.
George Bush has done a great job reaching out to Hispanics, and it wasn't by giving them welfare, blaming Republicans because their kids weren't learning, or telling them that he thinks they should have access to abortion and free contraceptives. It's because he talks in value=terms he and they share, uniting rather than dividing.
We can do that too.
With that being said, you are absolutely right about turn-out being the key. The electorate is constantly changing. People who voted in 1994 and gave Republicans a national victory, many haven't voted since because they felt lied to and manipulated. We need to bring those people back to the polls. I think Bill Simon can do it.
We need to rally our churches, make sure that people understand that this race is for the future of California. Four more years of Gray Davis will not only bring higher taxes, less energy, lower test scores and failed leadership, but will bring us gay marriage, contraceptives for our children, more abortions and less accountability in government and in schools.
Bill Simon is a conservative, he is compassionate, he has the background and ideas to lead our state. He's not perfect. But he's honest and he's moral. Everyone on FR needs to commit to volunteering 100 hours between now and election day, and commit to writing letters to the editor, contacting our friends and neighbors, and working to elect a good, moral, thoughtful, intelligent man as governor of California.
Go Simon!
I think that he's focused on the right issues -- the ones most Californians care about -- energy, the economy and education, all of which have the mark of Davis' failed leadership.
Davis is a corrupt politician. He needs to go for more reasons than just because he's a liberal. If Simon stays on message and offers sound solutions -- which I think he has an excellent chance of winning.
Go Simon!
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