If California election were today, Simon would probably win: Dick Morris

Mark Larson, Larson Live! | OCcober 10, 2002 | me

[Tony in Hawaii]

If we can only get our liberal friends to vote for Camejo...

[Coop]

So, it remains to be seen if Dickie's analysis will be accurate for the Simon-Davis race?

I agree that Morris' track record for predictions isn't that impressive. But his analysis method is standard. An incumbent under 55% is considered vulnerable. One under 45% is in terrible shape.

[Saundra Duffy]

Yahoo!!!!!!!!!

[ambrose]

When HASN'T Dick Morris been wrong?

The 50% rule doesn't apply in CA since third parties usually get upwards of 10% of the vote in statewide races.

[Ernest_at_the_Beach]

See this excellent article:

Now We Know Why Davis Won’t Debate

[Gophack]

In 1998, 3rd party candidates collectively received less than 5% of the vote. With a well-spoken and travelled greenie, I think there will be a slightly higher 3rd party vote, taking directly from the Democrats. I predicted earlier that the race would go as follows: (I could be wrong, this is just my opinion):

SIMON 47%
DAVIS 45%
CAMEJO 4%
OTHERS 4%

[RonDog]

Or, perhaps:

SIMON 45%
DAVIS 43%
Camejo 10%
OTHERS 2%

[CounterCounterCulture]

I stopped engaging the naysayers. They are quitters, IMHO. Like the Rats and Toricelli.

The Riordan supporters keep banging the drums of "I told you all you shoulda voted for Riordan." Yet they don't have an answer when I ask them "HOW?" when Riordan was practically annointed by the media and Parsky/Rove with a 40 point lead and lost by 18.1 points in just two short months of dismal campaigning.

This race is far from over, indeed, Simon is going to win.

Let's make it so. Of course the Riordan (or Ahhhnold) write-in drum-beaters will try to insure the opposite outcome.

[eureka!]

Excellent points. Just think if Riordan actually won the primary. As to the write ins, that is a creature of the presstitutes and Riordan's ego finds it gives him some face time. It will go no where. It's a long way to votin's time and this last overblown "fatal mistake" with the photo will be yesterday's news come Monday. Grayout is loathed by his many of his own party and donors (I know one whose plaintiff attorney group hit him up for $2,000) who, in the privacy of the ballot box will do the right thing--if they even go to the polls....