[NormsRevenge]

The second unknown that could work to Simon's benefit: voter turnout — or a lack thereof.

In 2002, the California electorate is internally conflicted. According to a survey by the Progressive Policy Institute of California, eight out of ten likely voters say they're paying close attention to the governor's race, but more than 55 percent don't like the Simon-Davis match-up. Here's the big news for Simon: Three out of ten voters say they'll skip the race altogether, or vote for a third-party candidate.

Think of Simon-Davis as a seesaw: The lower the turnout, in a state with more Democratic voters, the better Simon's chances for an upset climb (well, that, and a big rainstorm in San Francisco and Los Angeles on Election Day wouldn't hurt either).

Finally, a third variable: the great unknown — namely, what we still don't know about Gray Davis.

We need the Nathanson letter released and then Rain on November 5th. It CAN HaPPen!

[hunter112]

Three out of ten voters say they'll skip the race altogether, or vote for a third-party candidate.

Any credible left-wingers running in the Gov's race? Someone with the drawing power of a Ralph Nader, that could make this happen for Simon?

"Principled" liberals (an oxymoron, if there ever was one!) who feel that Davis has it in the bag can be lulled to vote for someone that they see as not being tainted, that makes them "feel good" on Election Day. That seems to be Simon's best possible chance, to pull a Jesse Ventura in CA.