Posted on 03/24/2015 7:15:22 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
Peggy Noonan says Clinton is Democrats presumed nominee, while Bush, Cruz, Walker and Paul will battle for GOP nod.
Peggy Noonan is an author of several books on politics, religion and culture, and a conservative-leaning weekly columnist for The Wall Street Journal.
She is perhaps best known as the primary speech writer for President Ronald Reagan, for whom she had kind words while addressing a full house Tuesday at The Society of the Four Arts’ 700-seat Gubelmann Auditorium.
“Mr. Reagan was the last great gentleman of American politics, in terms of personal grace and a lovely public dignity and warmth,” Noonan said. “He got mad sometimes but he never lost that thing called temper.”
Noonan wasn’t there to talk about Reagan, however. Instead, she served up keen insights about the strengths and weaknesses of the various candidates vying for the White House in 2016.
The presidential race is already upon us, with Ted Cruz, the U.S. senator from Texas, having just declared his candidacy, and his fellow Republican Jeb Bush, the former Florida governor, quietly lining up donors to finance his bid.
The Republicans are expecting a wide field of candidates – strong personalities who’ll spend the coming year slugging it out in a spirited series of debates. The Democrats, by contrast, already have lined up behind their presumed nominee, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton.
“The Democrats are already in the lead,” she said. “No matter what state you look at, Mrs. Clinton leads any and all Republicans by margins that go from modest to really substantial.”
Even so, she said Democratic leaders are worried about their candidate.
“Right now, the party elders are not dancing in the streets. They have a certain amount of concern and angst.”
The Clintons have historically been dogged by scandal, and Clinton’s use of personal email for her written communications as secretary of state hints at more controversy to come.
“Another thing that gives the willies to the Democratic establishment is, if a new Clinton scandal breaks out, they have no real sway. She keeps a pretty tight circle of advisers. She does it her way. They are afraid that Mrs. Clinton, at the end of the day, is not a great campaigner.”
On the positive side, Clinton is a unifying force for the far left, progressives, centrists and populists, she said. If she doesn’t run, the party will lurch to the left and fracture.
“For all her flaws, Hillary Clinton is the only major Democrat who can keep the party together in this election cycle,” Noonan said.
On the Republican side, Noonan spent a lot of time talking about Cruz (with whom she recently spoke), Bush, Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker, and Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul, who she said will announce on the day after Easter. She had little to say about New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie and Florida Sen. Marco Rubio.
Bush is broadly considered a front-runner if not the front-runner, she said.
“He has been vacuuming up tons of money. … He has got all the consultants and party eggheads. He is already working Florida. The Jeb Bush staff is so confident they are already calling him ‘45.’ ”
But for all of his organizing, Bush doesn’t have a clear-cut constituency, she said.
“He is like a perfectly prepared jockey who has yet to find a horse.”
Bush has said he’ll stick with controversial stands even if they place him at odds with some of the party base. But Noonan said party elders worry that he may “break the party” like his brother, George W. Bush, and father, George H.W. Bush, did during their presidencies.
Walker is an interesting and earnest man who has some popularity in every bracket of the party, but who is untested on the national stage, she said. Conservatives like him because he stood up to labor unions and kept winning elections despite being targeted by the left. His appeal doesn’t end there.
“He has real credibility with grass-roots Tea Party conservatives and with moderates, mostly because he talks about economic issues,” she said, adding that he also may connect with evangelicals.
“In show biz terms, he’s been playing night clubs. Now he is on an arena tour.”
Cruz is a smooth operator who wants to reassemble the old Reagan coalition that included evangelicals, the working class, and moderate Democrats. She said he told her his strategy.
“First, he will nail down the Tea Party, then evangelicals. Cruz knows Rubio and Rand Paul with compete with Jeb Bush for moderates. He knows he probably won’t win with moderates but he says this is not the year for a moderate.”
Cruz told her the liberal media portrays him as “the snarling face of the angry right” but never backs it up, because it can’t. “They don’t show the tape, because they don’t have the tape,” she said.
Noonan said she thinks Cruz’s age and lack of political experience will be too much for him to overcome. Only 44 years old, Cruz has less than one term in the Senate under his belt.
Paul is a Libertarian who is skeptical of government and who bears interesting ideas. But he is too far from the mainstream to claim the nomination, she said.
“He’s a young, curly haired unusual fellow. The Republican Party doesn’t really exist to be Libertarian. It’s sort of more normal than that.”
Whoever wins, Noonan will clearly be enjoying the show. “I love the great games of it, the wins and losses, the flubs and failures. It is human being competing in the biggest game there is: the greatness game.”
“It was a very good analysis, with interesting coverage of the different candidates,” said Phil Ruppe, a resident and former Republican congressman from Michigan.
I ain’t bothering to read the article, but stopped in anyway to point out the obvious: the headline writer took great liberties with the phrase “conservative columnist.”
Exactly...
Peggy Noonan is no conservative. In the Reagan administration, at best she was an editor for one of the greatest speech writers in presidential history.
I could never stand anything about Peggy Noonan.
She reminds me of a female George Will.
I could never stand anything about Peggy Noonan.
She reminds me of a female George Will.
Yep.
So did he ever clarify his concerns about Sarah Palin?
No conservative, Peggy is the ultimate career triangulator.
Yes, she is creative and a wordsmith, but conservative? Not a chance.
She & George get it right sometimes, so at best they are moderates. Definitely not conservatives though.
I agree that she gets it sometimes but there is something about her demeanor that I don’t like. And her voice and manner of speaking ....
Blanche Dubois Noonan the vapid vamp of RINO world picking the GOP candidate. She probably used her Obama BS decoder ring.
lol...
Noonan is in no way “conservative”. The headline spared me from reading the article.
First, Noonan is an NYT conservative.
Second, anyone who knows anything about Reagan knows he was his #1, #2, and #3 speech writer.
At best she is #4.
Although a Reagan speechwriter, Peggy has definitely gone Establishment.
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