Posted on 07/24/2015 3:13:23 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
Gallup is behind and irrelevant if what you post is true. I will take it as true that you found a Gallup blurb from which you carry forth their garbage.
Democrats maintain their six-point edge in party identification when independents’ “partisan leanings” are taken into account.
Wishful thinking on the part of the Gallup editor coupled with old data. And yes I say editor because I know these guys and they will use and mix statistics to get the sound bite material that the liberal media networks want to hear. That's how they keep their subscription rates up. If the media were predominantly conservative, the reverse would be true.
In addition to the 31% of Americans who identify as Democrats, another 16% initially say they are independents but when probed say they lean to the Democratic Party.
Here is the deception. The 16% they say lean democrat and the 16% they say lean republican add to 32% which is 10% short of the actual 42% that are registered Independent. And the 10% left out are conservative. That translates to 26% that are conservative which is just 2% short of the estimate I posted and my estimate is the low end estimate.
There is your fail. You're not using actual statistical data and you can't use actual data because you're not a professional nor are you financially capable to hire Gallup to acquire data to answer your questions. You're using lies put forth by brands that are known to be in the democrats camp like the lie that 97% of scientists say that man-made global warming exists. Gallup is not a respected source but they are a brand name because the large liberal media works subscribe to them and disseminate garbage results right down to the local news broadcasters. So the name Gallup is a brand like Coke or Pepsi. But the ingredients of Gallup are garbage and most often opposite to the truth.
Unfortunately you've revealed yourself to be a lightweight, actually a nobody when it comes to statistical analysis. Most longtime Freepers reading would see you use Gallup results and immediately write you off.
I’m not a GOP drone. I don’t want Trump for president. He’s there to split the party. It’s my party, I want it back. It’s been usurped by Democratic light. We’ve made progress in the last few years by electing more Republicans in local governments.Why give up now and split the vote?
I guess her grief at the fact that Mitt isn't running again has addled her thinking even more.
Not that good an example. Lincoln took clear majorities in enough states to have given him 173 out of is eventual 180 electoral votes. His popular vote percentage is skewed by the fact that he took almost no votes in the slave states. A modern 3 way election wouldn't be the same. In a three way race then Trump and the Republican split the vote and the Democrat wins. If it's a four way race, as someone suggested earlier, then hoo boy! Anything could happen then.
And say that it is a four way race and it winds up going to the House of Representatives. Do the Republicans stick with the party line and vote for Jeb? Or do they vote for Trump? Do Democrats stay will Hillary or do they leave the farm and go with Sanders?
> “In a three way race then Trump and the Republican split the vote and the Democrat wins.”
No.
No because there’s been a sea change in the numbers of voters who have registered independent and most all of the change is conservative.
The biggest voter affiliation today is Independent at 42%. In 2008 it was only 24% and it grew in 2012 which is why Romney did not win the election because he barely took half of the Independents when if he had been conservative he would have taken enough to put him over the top.
42% is a mass of people that added to other demographics are so large that the 31% democrats and the 28% republicans can’t win against in a 3-way race. Two-thirds by low end estimating of the current 42% are conservative.
5% from the democrat’s 31% are Reagan democrats and will vote for Trump/Cruz.
Up to 18% from the republicans 28% (64% of the 28%) are the GOP’s conservative base and most will vote for Trump/Cruz.
Then there are millions of grassroots conservatives that are awakening and Ted Cruz has tapped into this.
The Independents are continuing to grow as a percentage and most all of the growth is conservative.
No way is this shaping up to be a repeat of Perot’s folly in 1992. Things are much much different now.
Immigration is Ann’s issue and last cycle “Let them self deport” Romney was the immigration hard liner. Newt had the nomination in the bag and then he went soft on illegals, dido “you don’t have a heart” Perry after Newt blew it. Romney never went wobbly, he stayed the immigration hard liner. And he won the votes of GOP primary voters because of that.
Gallup is far from the only source.
You can beat this any way to Sunday, but the bottom line is the non-democrat vote is too small a proportion of the electorate to split into two factions.
We don’t have to like it ... but that’s the reality we face.
When Trump starts PUBLICLY campaigning to stop anchor babies, to stop family chain immigration, to stop the utterly bogus H-1B work visa, and to dramatically reduce the number of LEGAL immigrants - who vote 80% Democrat when they become citizens - then, and only then, will I take him seriously.
Ditto.
1860 WAS a four-way election:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election,_1860
I yield. I didn't even know who Christy was until he started beating up on a few school teachers.
Trump/Cruz is my team, too.
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