Re: “The breadth of Trump’s appeal is simply astonishing. If he survives to election day, this could well be the biggest blowout in US history.”
I’m still waiting to see Trump’s alleged general election “victory” broken down into concrete data points.
In 2012, Mitt Romney was the first presidential candidate in American history to get 59% of the white vote - and lose!
Are you guys expecting Trump to get more than 59% of the white vote? At least 40% of Republicans have an unfavorable view of Trump. How is that going to happen?
In 2012, Romney got 27% of the Hispanic vote. After all the degrading things Trump has said about Mexicans, do you really think Trump can get more than 27% of Hispanics?
In 2012, Romney got 44% of the women’s vote. After all the degrading things he has said about women, how can Trump do better than that?
In 2012, Romney got 6% of the Black vote.
I think Trump will do better than that. But he will need at least 30% of the Black vote to win. And Republicans have received less than 30% of the Black vote for 15 consecutive presidential elections!
I think you totally underestimate the appeal of Trump in this unique election cycle. Trump is drawing people to vote for him who have never voted before. I cannot overstate the importance of that point. The VAST majority of people simply do not vote in elections. If Trump can pull even just a LITTLE from the vast never-voted crowd - it would be enough to win. Even in a landslide. The bulk of Trump's support comes from folks who never or rarely vote as they had long ago given up on the system. The statistics you cite are irrelevant simply because you are citing the KNOWN electorate. This election cycle Trump is activating the vast sleeping giant [ the unknown electorate ] who were generally never or seldom part of the active electorate! This is groundbreaking. Further Trump is even drawing Reagan Democrats & independents to vote for him - so he does not even have to have the establishment Republicans on his side. When the general election campaign starts: his attacks on Hitlery will be so ferocious & groundbreaking that he will sail to victory in a landslide. This will be like no election in American history because Trump will actually EXPOSE the Clintons as part of his campaign.