[Political Junkie Too]

This is good.

If this replaces the previous Muhlenberg College polls from 9/12 to 9/16, that poll had it Clinton 40% Trump 32% in a 4-way. This poll has it Clinton 40% Trump 38% in a 4-way.

That means that Clinton hit a ceiling and Trump gained 6% on her when third-party candidates are included.

In my model, this moves Trump's probability in Pennsylvania from 12.2% last week to 27.8% based on this poll.

-PJ

[Political Junkie Too]

Put another way, prior to this poll my model showed Pennsylvania included in only 27.7% of Trump's winning scenarios. After this poll, Pennsylvania is in 62.1% of Trump's winning scenarios.

-PJ